Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

An upper level disturbance and associated Pacific cold front
operating across UT/WY this afternoon will move into wrn Nebraska
this afternoon/evening triggering a fairly robust area of
thunderstorms. A northward surge of dry air across the Panhandle
appears to be focusing the better rain chances, generally east of
highway 61 with the best chance east of highway 83. This represents
a shift east in the best focus for rainfall from earlier forecasts.

There are two basic schools of model solns for rainfall. One,
suggesting a strong cap will remain across swrn Nebraska, perhaps
limiting rain chances to areas north of Interstate 80. The strongly
capped models are the GFS, NAM, HRRR, SREF and RAP. A second cadre
of models, such as the ECM and downscaled NAM suggest significant
rainfall will extend along and south of the Interstate. The
forecast, which uses a blended approach, carries the heavier rain
further south then the "capped models" but not as far south as the
wetter ECM and downscaled NAM model.

In typical May fashion, lapse rates will be steep ahead of the upper
level disturbance predicted to move through tonight. Winds aloft at
h500 will increase to 50-65kts producing strong shear. The NAM and
RAP models accordingly, are suggesting a low bulk Richardson number
which increases along a sfc cold front progged to move through the
region late this afternoon and tonight. The CAMs are suggesting
multicell segments which is confusing since BufKit suggests the
shear will be too strong for significant cell regeneration. The CAMs
are probably developing the segments along and just behind the cold
front and represent the predicted storm mode for this forecast.

Most or all of this storm activity should be clear of wrn and ncntl
Nebraska Sunday morning and the region to remain post frontal
throughout the day.

A second round of height falls will move through the region Sunday
night and robust moisture return will develop as 850-700mb winds
become south and strengthen to 35-50kts. This should lift a warm
front back north and the models are in very good agreement
developing thunderstorms north of Interstate 80. A check on the NAM
and RAP models shows lapse rates becoming steep with the approach of
the warm front. This would support storms capable of at least small
hail with a marginal chance for a few large-hail storms Sunday
night. Likely POPs are in place north of the Interstate with rain
chances increasing to definite near the SD border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

Western and north central Nebraska remain post-frontal Monday and
Tuesday. A dry forecast is in place.

Attention is drawn to the potential weather events of Wednesday and
Thursday. It is during this time an upper level low will drop
through the srn Rockies and lift north through the cntl and nrn high
Plains. Moisture return is likely across Nebraska with dew points
returning to the 50s. The GFS and ECM show a strong cap in place
with h700mb temperatures warming to 12C-14C. The strong cap
represents a significant limiter to thunderstorm chances.

Height falls occur with the approach of the upper low. Model timing
differences- the GFS is faster, lowering heights and weakening the
cap Wednesday. The slower ECM delays this process until Thursday.
Chc-slight chc POPs are in place Wednesday and Thursday- the better
focus appears to be across the Dakotas and upper Midwest but the
intense increase in 500mb winds to 50-80kts across Nebraska shown by
the ECM Thursday are a severe weather concern. The message is the
strong cap and strong shear predicted by the models suggest
thunderstorm coverage across wrn and ncntl Nebraska would likely be
isolated but potentially severe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

The main aviation weather concern through tonight revolves around
thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms will grow in coverage and
spread east through 08/06z or so, lingering a little longer in
north central Neb (KONL). Expect significant drops in visby and
erratic winds, along with brief bouts of hail. Preceding the
storms, south/southeast winds will continue to gust 30+ kts.
Behind the storms, winds will transition to west/northwest and
gradually wane overnight. Ceilings lift to AOA 20kft by midday,
while another wind shift to southeast occurs for southern Neb
(KLBF).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
248 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
248 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 /148 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon and evening across much of western and north central
Nebraska. Storms may become strong to severe with large hail,
damaging winds, and frequent lightning the main concerns. Storms
will likely continue through the overnight with a continued threat
for strong to isolated severe storms possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorm activity is possible once again on Sunday afternoon
and evening, mainly for areas north of Highway 92. At this time,
the threat for severe weather appears low.

Additional chances for thunderstorms will exist Wednesday and
Thursday. At this time, the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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