Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

The subtropical upper level disturbance operating across ncntl
Nebraska this afternoon will exit the region this evening. Most of
the heavier showers and thunderstorms should be east of the area.
Until the system departs, deep layer 0-8km shear near 50kts, high
CAPE and precipitable water north of 1.75 inches will support
isolated HP supercells.

Dry air will move in aloft at h750-700mb tonight and this could
potentially produce a radiation condition for fog across ncntl
Nebraska by 12z Sunday morning. The short term model blend was the
basis for patchy fog along and east of highway 281.

The temperature forecast tonight through Sunday night leans on the
short term model blend plus bias correction. A very weak Pacific
cold front will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and
this should advect drier air into wrn Nebraska during the day
Sunday. Ncntl Nebraska will remain in the 60+F dew point air while
dew points in the west drop into the 50s. This is important because
predicted high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s across the west
could meet heat advisory criteria if dew points remained in the 60s.

The forecast highs in the 90s Sunday are supported by h700mb
temperatures of 12C-13C. This forecast is a degree or two warmer
than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend, but slightly
cooler than the bias corrected guidance blend which suggested 100F
around Imperial.

Warm air advection will continue Sunday night in preparation for
a major heat wave Monday. The temperature forecast Sunday night
uses the guidance blend which was cool, and the short term model
blend which was warmer. There is a chance winds will decouple
across parts srn Nebraska supporting lows in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Another major heat wave will develop across wrn and ncntl Nebraska
Monday. The models suggest h700mb temperatures of 18C-19C which
would support highs north of 105F in some areas. In fact, the NAM
guidance suggested 110F for highs at Pine Ridge and Valentine.
This the result of downsloping winds off the Sandhills into the
Niobrara valley and the White River valley. The forecast uses the
NBM suggested highs in the mid 100s. The HRRR and RAP models will
be in range of this event Sunday.

A swath of drier air be in place with dew points falling into the
50s across western Nebraska. The latest forecast puts heat indices
in the low to mid 100s and later forecasts will likely carve out a
heat advisory across much, if not all of western and north central
Nebraska.

Temperatures aloft at h700mb cool Wednesday and Thursday. Still, 90s
are in place for highs. The next obvious opportunity for 100+F heat
develops Friday. The models are in good agreement warming h700mb
temps back up to 17C-18C.

No meaningful rainfall chances are in the extended forecast. The
plume of subtropical moisture which has produced rainfall across the
region will remain across the Rockies but migrate north into the
Dakotas after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Scattered thunderstorms in north central Nebraska should move
southeast out of the forecast area this evening. These storms have
a history of producing large hail and gusty, erratic winds. Light
winds and sufficient humidity near the surface should result in
fog and low stratus in southwest and north central Nebraska in the
early morning hours. Areas of MVFR conditions may develop in
southwest Nebraska including KLBF. Lower ceilings and visibility
are expected in north central Nebraska leading to IFR and LIFR
conditions, including KVTN, KANW, and KONL. Fog and stratus will
clear tomorrow morning with VFR conditions and winds out of the
northeast at under 10 knots by the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Meltzer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
347 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 /247 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across most of
western and north central Nebraska. There is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms with the main threats being large hail up to
quarter size and strong winds. Some storms may also produce
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Hot temperatures are expected Sunday through Friday across
western and north central Nebraska. Dangerous heat is expected on
Monday as highs reach 100 to 107 degrees.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday
as hot temperatures and gusty winds are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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