Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Upper level ridging remains in place in the Southern Plains. As a
trough over the coast of the PNW projects farther inland, a
series of shortwaves will eject across the High Plains bringing
multiple thunderstorms chances. FOr today, a perturbation is
expected to move from eastern WY and progress into the Black Hills
region. This shortwave will push through the Black Hills region
bringing showers/storms to the Black Hills/western SD through the
evening. Some of these showers/storms may spread into parts of
northwestern NE tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances
today and tomorrow. As the shortwave approaches the High Plains
this evening, thunderstorms will develop across portions of
eastern WY, southern SD and the western NE Panhandle. Storms will
spread eastward. There is some uncertainty in the environment
across western Nebraska and if storms will be able to sustain
themselves to reach the western portions of our CWA. Confidence is
low in seeing anything more than a stray thunderstorm across
western and southwest Nebraska. There is a little more confidence
however in thunderstorms holding together across southern SD then
moving southeast into the northern Sandhills and possibly pushing
into north central Nebraska, however, how far southeast the
progression of the storms goes is a little uncertain but will keep
slight pops in the forecast. However, there should be sufficient
moisture with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Bufkit soundings from
areas across the Sandhills are mostly inverted V soundings, with
some of the stronger signals across the northern Sandhills.
Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with any strong to
severe storms. Storm chances should begin to diminish after
midnight.

As for storm chances on Saturday, placement of storms is a little
trickier. There will be sufficient instability across the area,
however upper level forcing will be rather weak which leads to some
uncertainty on thunderstorm development and how widespread activity
will be. Timing wise, thunderstorm development may be possible
starting as early as mid afternoon with chances continuing through
the evening. Current thinking is storms will be isolated to widely
scattered and there is the potential for some storms to be strong to
severe.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

A stronger shortwave will move through the area on Sunday, which
could bring the potential for more scattered to widespread
thunderstorms in the evening hours, there is also the potential
for some storms to become strong to severe. A weak disturbance
will move across the area Monday with a slight chance for
precipitation possible mainly during the evening hours. An Upper
level ridge then builds in across the Central Plains Tuesday and
remains in place through the remainder of the forecast period.
Temperatures will be hot with highs in the 90s and even a few 100s
possible on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside
thunderstorms. Watching convection in eastern Wyoming and
southwest South Dakota as it tracks to the east-southeast through
late tonight. Current timing suggests arrival into the VTN and LBF
terminals just prior to midnight and prior to dawn respectively.
Heavy rain may lead to degraded conditions, MVFR and possibly IFR
for a brief period, before clearing out after a few hours at each
site. We'll need to monitor the potential for low-stratus
following convection mainly for the LBF terminal, but confidence
in this is too low to mention at this time. Winds should remain
less than 20 knots through the period, with generally a
southeasterly direction.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Viken/Gomez
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1114 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-021615-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1114 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 /1014 AM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms will affect the forecast area tonight. Some storms
may produce locally damaging winds, particularly from the late
evening into the overnight hours. The greatest potential for
severe weather generally lies along and west of Highway 183.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Thunderstorm chances exist virtually every day through the middle
of next week. Some storms may be strong or severe Sunday evening,
with strong winds and heavy rainfall being the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022

NEZ004-020115-
Sheridan NE-
628 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Sheridan
County through 715 PM MDT...

At 627 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Slim Buttes to 11 miles northeast of
Chadron to near Crawford. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Hay Springs, White Clay, Clinton, Intersection of
Highway 87 and Craven Creek Road, Lone Butte, Intersection of Beaver
Creek Road and White Clay Creek Road, Intersection of Highway 87 and
Larabee Road, Mount Maria, Walgren Lake, Pine Ridge and Hoover Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 74 and 111.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 40 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10209 4277 10210 4245 10273 4246 10278
      4278 10277 4279 10279 4300 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 280DEG 35KT 4312 10285 4294 10284 4266 10337

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
716 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022

NEZ004-094-020200-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
716 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Cherry
and Sheridan Counties through 800 PM MDT...

At 715 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Swett to near Rushville to near Lake
Minatare Campground. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Cody, Merriman, Antioch, Clinton, Eli, Big Hill,
Billys Lake, Lone Butte, Irwin, Rock Hill, Hoover Lake, Wickson Lake,
Diamond Lake, Krause Lake, Highway 61 crossing the Snake River,
Morgan Lake and Smith Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 88 and 159.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 1 and 48.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 96 and 114.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 200 and 231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4273 10250 4300 10220 4299 10117 4202 10240
      4201 10270 4209 10270 4210 10274 4254 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 289DEG 30KT 4314 10199 4271 10241 4193 10357

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC