Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

H5 pattern this morning had a predominantly zonal
pattern across the CONUS. Low pressure was noted over southern
portions of Hudson Bay, with a trough extending south into New York
State. Low pressure was also located in the eastern Gulf of Alaska.
Within the zonal flow, several weak disturbances were noted. One was
pushing into central Nebraska and a second was pushing into western
Wyoming and Colorado. At the surface, high pressure was anchored off
to the east of the area over Iowa. Weak low pressure was located
east of Cheyenne Wyoming. A weak frontal boundary straddled the
Wyoming and Colorado state line. An inverted surface trough extended
north thorugh the western Nebraska Panhandle into southwestern South
Dakota. East of the low and inverted trough, southerly winds were
present across the forecast area this afternoon. Skies were partly
cloudy in the west and mostly cloudy in the east. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to develop generally east of highway 83 this
afternoon. This activity has remained sub-severe up to this point.
Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 66 at O'Neill to 83 at
Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

The main forecast
challenge in the near term is thunderstorm chances tonight and
severe potential. As mentioned above in the synopsis, showers and
thunderstorms continued to develop east of highway 83 this
afternoon. Looking at the latest CAMS, they suggest this activity
will persist this afternoon, clearing the forecast area around 00z
this evening. West of this exiting activity, an approaching
shortwave will interact with the inverted surface trough (which
should reside just to the east of highway 61) at 00z. Storms should
initiate INVOF this trough around 00z to 01z this evening. These
cells will move into a very favorable environment for rapid
intensification. The latest NAM12 soln is indicating a corridor of
2000-3000 J/KG SB CAPES between highways 61 and 83 around 00z this
evening. Deep layer shear of 50 KTS will be sufficient for
supercellular storms. As storms approach highway 83, they will
encounter 2000+ J/KG elevated CAPE (H85-H7 layer), which will be
favorable for large, and even very large hail. As for the tornado
threat, it appears to be minimal attm. given the limited low level
helicities. However, there is a corridor of enhanced stretching
potential along highway 61 late this afternoon. If storms do
initiate during this time period along this corridor, we could see a
landspout or two as storms initiate. This activity will congeal into
a mcs over south central Nebraska as it combines with convection
traversing northwestern Kansas late this evening. Am expecting the
convective threat to end across the forecast area sometime after
04z. Ridging will build into the central and northern Rockies Friday
into Friday night, placing the forecast area in northwesterly flow
aloft. Surface high pressure will build into eastern Nebraska Friday
leading to dry conditions across western and north central Nebraska.
Southerly winds will begin to increase Friday night across the area
as the high drops southeast into Missouri. With drier air in place
and clear skies, highs will reach into the upper 70s in the east and
upper 80s in southwestern Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

The ridge across the central Rockies will be forced east Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures will climb into the 90s both days with
the best threat for precipitation Sunday night in the west.
However, wouldn't be surprised if we see some convection in the
northeast Saturday night as convection in the Dakotas over tops
the ridge. Monday looks to be the hottest day of the forecast
period as the ridge breaks down. The model blended high temp
forecast on Monday has now trended higher and seems to have
trended toward the warm side of guidance. With the ridge breaking
down, feel confident with the forecast of 100 + degrees south of
highway 92. For North Platte, the forecast high of 103 would tie
the record high for Monday. For Imperial, the forecast high of 103
would break the record of 100 degrees. For Broken bow the 100
degree forecast would be one degree short of the record high of
101 degrees. In addition to the heat, low relative humidity looks
probable in far SW Nebraska where forecast min RH bottoms out at
around 12 percent. If winds can reach 15 to 25 MPH Monday
afternoon, and this looks probable given the degree of mixing, we
will probably see critical to near critical fire weather
conditions in SW Nebraska. A cold front will pass through the
forecast area Monday night, leading to highs in the 70s and 80s
for Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a threat for
thunderstorms Tuesday/Tuesday night as a post frontal wave tracks
through the area. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected Wednesday
and Thursday. Beyond Thursday, the mid range solutions develop a
ridge across the central CONUS. This will lead to temperatures
well above normal with below normal precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

Isolated thunderstorms are moving southeast through north central
and southwest Nebraska this evening. They may lead to brief
downpours, a temporary decrease in visibility, and gusty erratic
winds. Due to the isolated nature of these storms, kept mention at
KLBF limited to VCTS. Thunderstorm activity should leave the
forecast area by midnight. It also appears that MVFR to IFR
conditions will develop in north central Nebraska including KVTN and
KANW due to low ceilings and reduced visibility. Conditions should
improve to VFR later tomorrow morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Meltzer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-102000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022 /155 PM MDT Thu Jun 9 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely
across portions of southwest and central Nebraska late this
afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm will be capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday
and Sunday across portions of western Nebraska. At this time, the
threat for severe weather is uncertain so stay tuned to later
forecasts for more information.

High heat and humidity will push heat indices to around 100
degrees Monday afternoon across portions of southwest and central
Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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