Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

The forecast gets a temperature dewpoint update for warmer more
moist conditions using the RAP and HRRR models.

UPDATE Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

High wind gusts have been reported as far west as Scottsbluff this
evening. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for all of western
and ncntl Nebraska until 6 am CDT...the time a Pacific cold front exit
ncntl Nebraska. The passage of the front will mark the end of
this high wind event.

UPDATE Issued at 903 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

A thunderstorm across Blaine county started a grass fire this
evening. The Red Flag Warning for western and ncntl Nebraska has
been extended in time until 6 am CDT...the approximate time the
thunderstorms will exit the region.

UPDATE Issued at 737 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

A forecast update is in place for widespread blowing dust across
much of wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Fire weather concerns continue Saturday as strong northwest winds
develop along with dry air. The concern will be for areas especially
south of I-80. A fire weather section below has more detailed
information regarding the fire potential.

Potent upper trough is evident on WV imagery moving this afternoon
moving across Utah. Surface low pressure is in the process of
rapidly deepening across the Nebraska Panhandle ahead of this
feature. This is resulting in a tight east-west pressure gradient
across the Plains. Strong southerly low-level flow is helping
transport quality Gulf moisture/humidity northward into the region.
A dry line has become established across western Kansas into western
Nebraska with a warm front located near the NE/SD border. An EML has
overspread the area and resulting in a capping inversion across the
region. CAMS are reflecting this and do not give much support of
development near the warm front late this afternoon, but continue to
focus more on the dry line across western Kansas for at least
isolated convective development around 23Z-01Z timeframe. By early
evening, soundings are very favorable for supercells along the HWY
83 corridor and vicinity as winds in the low-levels begin to back
slightly to the southeast. This coincides with a westward retreating
dry line with a surge of lower 60s dew point into western Nebraska.
The isolated convection in western Kansas could grow upscale into a
couple of supercells as it travels northeastward into southwest and
central Nebraska during the evening.

The other focus will be along the surging cold front that
essentially meets the westward retreating dry line mid-evening
across west central Nebraska. This is about the time that the best
forcing arrives, and should see the rapid development of a squall
line take shape along the cold front/dry line. This line is then
expected to advance quickly eastward across the area overnight. This
line will be pushing into a favorable environment with a strong
southerly LLJ, etc. It appears that the line could remain near-
surface based due to the rapid increasing low-level moisture and
strong southerly winds and mixing through the boundary layer. This
scenario could lead to the potential for an isolated tornado along
the leading edge of the line. Regardless, strong winds will be
likely as 55-65 kt low level jet could lead to gusts nearing 60 mph
(even well ahead of the line) as the strong winds mix to the
surface.

The upper low will move northeast across South Dakota on Saturday.
Gusty northwest winds develop Saturday through Saturday night and
then begin to decrease on Sunday. Bufkit sounding profile data
indicates the potential for 55 mph gusts. Threat for light wrap-
around rain or snow, mostly across northwest Nebraska. We'll have to
watch the higher elevation of the Pine Ridge where 1-3" of wet snow
could accumulate.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Upper level ridging looks to dominate the weather for much of the
upcoming week. Temperatures will be above normal by the middle of
the week. The airmass will be dry the first half of the week. Some
wind is expected during this time which could lead to potentially
more fire weather concerns. It doesn't appear though that winds will
be near as strong this coming week as they have been the last
several. Upper troughing takes shape across the western CONUS late
in the week. This should allow for some return flow of Gulf moisture
through the Plains by late in the week, possibly leading to at least
a slight chance for rainfall/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

A line of thunderstorms associated with a cold front will continue
to move east across the forecast area through the early morning
hours. LLWS will be present in areas near the cold front passage.
Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within some of the
storms due to low ceilings and reduced visibility. Gusty and
erratic winds are the main concern for these storms. Winds will
shift from the south ahead of the front to the west and northwest
behind the front and remain gusty through the forecast period.
MVFR conditions may develop in areas of northern Nebraska
including KVTN in the evening due to lower ceilings and reduced
visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across the area
through mid evening as strong southerly winds will increase into
the evening hours. By mid evening, some wind gusts may top 60 MPH.
Any fire starts will quickly spread and will be difficult to
control. Later this evening, a squall line is expected to develop
in the vicinity of highway 61. This line of storms will track
quickly east into the overnight hours. Moisture will be limited
with this line of storms, so there may be dry lightning strikes
this evening and overnight. Behind the squall line, gusty westerly
winds are expected overnight and some gusts may reach 50 MPH
overnight. Windy conditions will continue into Saturday with
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ early this morning
for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

Red Flag Warning until 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ early this morning
for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Meltzer
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1011 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-240315-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1011 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 /911 PM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind damage are
possible across western and north central Nebraska overnight.
Isolated tornadoes are possible and the area of concern is
generally along and south of Interstate 80.

A High Wind Warning is now in effect across all of western and
north central Nebraska until 6 am CDT, 5 am MDT. The concern is
south winds 30 to 40 mph gusting to 65 mph.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely overnight. The concern
is strong winds and lightning induced wildfires.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Saturday, winds switch to northwesterly behind a powerful cold
front and continue to be strong with gusts to 50 mph possible.
Additional moisture appears likely for the northern Sandhills,
where some of the precipitation will fall as snow. Up to one inch
of snow accumulation is possible near the Pine Ridge by early
Sunday morning. In southwest Nebraska, drier air will result in
elevated fire weather conditions.

Sunday and beyond, temperatures begin a gradual warming trend
while dry air returns. When combined with gusty winds, periodic
fire weather concerns are anticipated. For now, Tuesday appears
to be the driest and windiest day of the stretch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND GST     11 NNE THREE MILE LAKE  41.80N 101.43W
04/23/2022  M65 MPH          GRANT              NE   MESONET

&&

CLIFFORD.COLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE NORTH PLATTE      41.15N 100.72W
04/23/2022  M71 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   ASOS

            NORTH PLATTE AIRPORT

&&

CLIFFORD.COLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1259 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SW MASON CITY        41.13N 99.46W
04/23/2022  M58 MPH          CUSTER             NE   MESONET

&&

CLIFFORD.COLE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
128 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE WHITMAN           42.07N 101.44W
04/23/2022  M79 MPH          GRANT              NE   MESONET

&&

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
135 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BROKEN BOW              41.41N 99.64W
04/23/2022  M68 MPH          CUSTER             NE   ASOS

            BROKEN BOW AIRPORT

&&

CDC