Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Early afternoon satellite imagery continues to show a good amount of
sunshine across central and western Nebraska. However expect convective
trends will be on the upswing as we head into this evening as
instability pools along and ahead of a frontal boundary draped across
northern Nebraska. It will likely take until early this evening to
erode the cap and forcing is not very robust, but hodographs near the
front are nicely curved in the low levels, mid/upper lapse rates are
steep, and DCAPE values are elevated across southwest Nebraska.
Expected evolution of convection is for isolated/widely scattered
storms to form along the boundary which will generally be along/south of
highway 2, then grow upscale with coverage remaining scattered and
eventually cluster up and develop into a convective complex across
southeastern Nebraska early tonight. 40kts of 0-6 bulk shear looks
sufficient to support organized updrafts in some of the discrete storms
with significant CAPE in the hail growth zone to generate primary
severe threats of large hail and damaging wind from roughly 7PM until
around Midnight when convection slides off to our southeast and
consolidates. However will also have to monitor convective trends
upstream across SD as there are indications for an MCS to develop aided
by a bit of a low level jet and brush along the NE/SD border late
tonight/early Sunday morning with potential for hail/wind.

The cold pool associated with the MCS diving down into eastern Nebraska
will give a good push to the frontal boundary and drive southward into
Nebraska on Sunday as a dryline surges eastward during the afternoon. A
combination of interaction between the dryline, lingering frontal
boundary, and residual cold pool boundaries from earlier convection will
trigger thunderstorm development again late Sunday afternoon/evening.
The best instability will reside off to our southeast and support
development of another MCS across southeast Nebraska into Kansas Sunday
evening. However, an axis of unstable air will reside along the
lingering frontal boundary with enough boundary layer shear to support
at least widely scattered cells with good updrafts and a threat for
large hail and damaging winds. The convective threat Sunday evening
will be over by Midnight with lingering showers/thunder overnight
Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

A good surge of jet energy will push through the low amplitude upper
ridge and work with the lingering frontal boundary draped across
western Nebraska to trigger another round of thunderstorms late Monday
afternoon and evening. One convective complex looks to develop late in
the day and move across western/southwestern Nebraska, while another
complex develops and moves across SD and into eastern Nebraska Monday
night. There looks to be enough overlap of good shear and limited
instability to support a marginal severe threat across western Nebraska
but the better threat will reside off to our southwest where synoptic
forcing is expected to be more robust.

Thereafter, ensemble guidance is in good agreement in keeping the quasi
zonal progressive flow regime across the nation with gradual
amplification of an eastern trof/western ridge through late next week.
Expect the net result will be cool temperatures and active weather with
a good chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing each day through
the middle of next week, followed by a trend toward warmer temperatures
and a bit less active weather heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Thunderstorms will be the main aviation concern the next 24 hours.
Scattered thunderstorms continue southeast of a KLBF through KBBW
line and also west of KOGA. These thunderstorms will continue to
track southeast tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms
Sunday, especially across north central NE. Included -SHRA at
KVTN 14Z-18Z. IFR to MVFR ceilings are also expected across north
central Nebraska including KVTN beginning after 06Z until 18Z,
with lifting ceilings to VFR during the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
251 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
251 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 /151 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening across
portions of north central and western Nebraska. Some storms may
be strong to severe with the greatest threat for severe storms
generally south of Highway 2. Large hail and gusty winds are the
main severe threats along with localized heavy rainfall

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue on Sunday and Monday. On Sunday,
there is slight risk for severe thunderstorms mainly along and
east of Highway 83. Some storms may be strong to severe with the
main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

Near daily thunderstorm chances continue through Friday in the
afternoon and evening. Exact timing and location still remains
uncertain as well as severe potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
528 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ025-026-037-038-042300-
Custer NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-Logan NE-
528 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Logan,
northwestern Custer, southwestern Blaine and southeastern Thomas
Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Halsey to 12 miles north
of Gandy. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brown Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central, north central and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4182 10010 4148 10027 4162 10049 4191 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 317DEG 7KT 4182 10034 4164 10041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
440 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ022-056-042315-
Deuel NE-Garden NE-
440 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Keith, south
central Garden and Deuel Counties through 515 PM MDT...

At 439 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chappell, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chappell, Big Springs, Barton and Goldeneye State Wildlife Management
Area.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 90 and
107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 10239 4118 10205 4107 10206 4100 10210
      4100 10230 4111 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 297DEG 12KT 4116 10237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
554 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ038-042345-
Custer NE-
554 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Custer
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ansley to near Berwyn. Movement was southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ansley, Mason City, Buckeye, Block Hill Basin, Gavin Siding,
Intersection of Highway 183 and Cumro Road and Cumro.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 73 and 93.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 288 and 307.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 300 and 305.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9950 4135 9969 4134 9934 4123 9920
      4105 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 323DEG 14KT 4129 9939 4130 9955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
501 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ022-042345-
Garden NE-
501 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Garden
County through 545 PM MDT...

At 501 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Lisco, or 18 miles west of Oshkosh, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh and Intersection of Highway 27 and 9 Mile Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 10225 4123 10222 4123 10261 4139 10261
      4140 10264 4143 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 264DEG 19KT 4133 10269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ038-050015-
Custer NE-
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Custer County
through 715 PM CDT...

At 639 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Berwyn to near Broken Bow to 9 miles west
of Merna. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Ansley, Merna, Berwyn, Westerville and Pleasant Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 90 and 100.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 268 and 294.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 257 and 273, and between mile
markers 303 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4139 10009 4156 10008 4140 9921 4139 9920
      4126 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 299DEG 12KT 4136 9941 4136 9969 4146 9994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer