Red Flag Warning 6, NWS North Platte, NE

079 
WWUS83 KLBF 250742
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
242 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

NEZ206-208-209-219-252145-
/O.CON.KLBF.FW.W.0006.220325T1700Z-220326T0200Z/
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-Loup Rivers Basin-Loess Plains-
242 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a Red
Flag Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in
effect from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday.

* Affected Area...In NEZ206...Fire Weather Zone 206 
  Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest. In NEZ208... 
  Fire Weather Zone 208 Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel 
  R McKelvie National Forest. In NEZ209...Fire Weather Zone 209 
  Loup Rivers Basin. In NEZ219...Fire Weather Zone 219 Loess 
  Plains.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions could become favorable for rapid 
  fire growth and erratic fire behavior. Fires may quickly 
  become out of control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

339 
WWUS83 KLBF 251857
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
157 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

NEZ206-208-209-219-260200-
/O.CON.KLBF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220326T0200Z/
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-Loup Rivers Basin-Loess Plains-
157 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* Affected Area...In NEZ206...Fire Weather Zone 206 
  Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest. In NEZ208... 
  Fire Weather Zone 208 Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel 
  R McKelvie National Forest. In NEZ209...Fire Weather Zone 209 
  Loup Rivers Basin. In NEZ219...Fire Weather Zone 219 Loess 
  Plains.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Weather conditions could become favorable for rapid 
  fire growth and erratic fire behavior. Fires may quickly 
  become out of control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

680 
WWUS83 KLBF 260156
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
856 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

NEZ206-208-209-219-260300-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220326T0200Z/
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-Loup Rivers Basin-Loess Plains-
856 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR AREAS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

Winds have lightened and humidity levels have begun to recover,
therefore the Red Flag Warning will expire.

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
119 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around near
critical to critical fire weather conditions today and tomorrow.
Specific details regarding the fire weather threat will be included
in the Fire Weather section below.

Currently, the area sits in northerly flow aloft on the backside of
a slow moving upper low positioned over the Midwest. Low clouds were
pushing south and west into portions of north central Nebraska.

For today and tonight, expecting a less windy afternoon than in
previous days, as the upper low responsible continues to drift
further off to the east of the area. This will also lead to the
persistent stratus deck finally exiting north central Nebraska this
afternoon. Warm advection really gets underway this afternoon, with
H85 temps increasing by 8-10C area wide by this evening. With at
least filtered sunshine this afternoon, expect good diurnal mixing
today and amid the continuing warm advection this promotes return to
the mid/upper 60s across western Nebraska. By late this afternoon, a
surface low will eject across the Canadian Prairies and drags a cold
front into northwest Nebraska. Wind gusts look to increase (to
around 25-35mph) behind this front across the Panhandle and western
Sandhills late this afternoon as the boundary layer remains
diurnally mixed and flow begins to increase aloft. For areas along
and east of HWY 83, expect less in the way of gusts behind this
front as it passes after sunset (and the loss of deeper diurnal
mixing). Dry air remains deep near/just above the surface as
indicated by forecast soundings, and no precipitation is expected
with frontal passage.

The H85 front arrives by early tomorrow morning, with strong cold
advection continuing into the early afternoon. Additionally, flow
increases to the order of 35 to 45kts, primarily across north
central Nebraska in closer proximity to the parent low. The strong
cold advection, a largely unidirectional wind profile, and at least
some sunshine should lead to ample mixing in the wake of the front
Friday and a period of gusty winds. More concerning is the depth of
dry air aloft and that some of this drier air will likely be mixed
down to the surface. Dewpoints tank by late afternoon and will lead
to increasing fire concerns even with temperatures largely in the
50s. The ribbon of stronger flow aloft begins to exit the area by
tomorrow evening and winds relax into tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

The long term begins with an upper ridge building across the western
CONUS. Ensemble guidance continues to suggests this ridge
strengthening as it slowly translates into the Plains by late this
weekend. Guidance suggests H5 heights approaching/exceeding the 90th
percentile climo Sunday into Monday across western Nebraska.
Additionally, H7-H85 temperatures will approach the 99th
percentile climo and this suggests anomalous warmth Monday.
Taking verbatim deterministic output, the indicated H85
temperatures (~17-20C) are more typical of July locally.
Confidence in just how warm we get remains low confidence, largely
due to the potential of high cloudiness and placement of surface
boundaries. However, it is hard to argue with the potential for
records to be broken at local climate sites given the degree of
warm air aloft. This warmup will also lead to persisting fire
weather concerns, and critical conditions are possible on Monday,
especially with a ridge breakdown scenario. The potential for
critical fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored.

Our next potential storm system looks to arrive towards the middle
of next week. Guidance remains in very low agreement with the
handling of synoptic scale features and confidence in any one
scenario remains very low for now. Cluster analysis largely remains
in two camps, with a slower and deeper cutoff or a more progressive
and weaker system. Until guidance can become more aligned with one
scenario or the other, it will be difficult to pin down favored
areas for precipitation accumulations. With this in mind, see no
reason to change the inherited widespread chance POPs at this time.
This potential will continue to be monitored and this looks to be
the next chance for any precipitation locally.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

VFR conditions should prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska this afternoon through tonight. A cold front
will move through the area with gusty north to northwest winds
tonight and Friday. A mid-level cloud deck will develop/spread
across portions of western and southwest Nebraska tonight into
Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening across much of western and north central
Nebraska. A cold front will push into western Nebraska this evening,
leading to a couple zones of fire weather concerns. Ahead of the
front, in areas along and east of HWY 83, humidity values will fall
to as low as 15 to 20 percent this afternoon. However, winds look to
largely remain below 20mph. Behind the front, in areas generally
west of HWY 97, wind gusts will increase to 25 to 35mph from the
northwest late this afternoon, though humidity values will only fall
to around 20 to 30%. The potential for overlap of the lowest
humidity and strongest winds looks very low this afternoon.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow for areas
along and east of HWY 83. Winds quickly increase tomorrow afternoon
from the northwest in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.
Wind gusts up to 45mph will be possible tomorrow afternoon for
areas east of HWY 83. Very dry air will be in place across central
and north central Nebraska and lead to humidity values falling to
as low as 13 to 20% even with temperatures only climbing into the
low to mid-50s. A Red Flag watch is in effect for portions of
central and north central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon through
evening where the highest confidence in critical fire weather
conditions developing exists.

The weather pattern looks to remain favorable for persistent fire
weather conditions through this weekend and into early next week. An
upper ridge will build into the Plains and send high temperatures
soaring to well above average by Sunday. The warmest day looks to be
Monday, and conditions are being monitored for the potential for
critical fire weather conditions across much of western and north
central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NEZ206-208-209-219.

&&

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1101 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251615-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1101 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 /1001 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
this afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. The
main area of concern is east of highway 83 from Valentine to
North Platte.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Extreme to critical fire weather conditions are probable Friday
afternoon into Friday evening across western and north central
Nebraska. The main area of concern is east of a line from Hayes
Center, to Sutherland, to Cody. In these areas, afternoon
relative humidity may reach 12 to 17 percent. Winds will be
northwesterly with some gusts up to 40 MPH possible over north
central into central Nebraska. A fire weather watch is in effect
in these areas.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Monday afternoon with the greatest threat west of a line from
Valentine to North Platte.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte