Red Flag Warning 3, NWS North Platte, NE

Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Wheeler County, NE

675 
WWUS83 KLBF 082353
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
553 PM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

NEZ204-206-208>210-219-090100-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220209T0000Z/
Eastern Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR-
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-Loup Rivers Basin-Frenchman Basin-Loess Plains-
553 PM CST Tue Feb 8 2022 /453 PM MST Tue Feb 8 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING...

Winds are decreasing as humidity increases, therefore the Red Flag
Warning will be allowed to expire. 

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1142 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

Expect dry conditions with temperatures well above normal through
tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight will only be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. A dry cold front will move through the area late
tonight and downsloping winds will help boost highs tomorrow into
the 50s and be near 60 degrees across south central Nebraska.
Winds will increase significantly behind the front with soundings
on BufKit showing a well mixed boundary layer with high momentum
air at the top of the mixed layer and probabilistic guidance
indicates gusts of 40 to 50 mph for most of the region. See fire
weather discussion below for impacts on the wind and temps on fire
weather tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

As has been the case this winter, another northern stream system
will slide down from the northwest on Wednesday and bring a
chance for some precipitation to Nebraska late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Surface temperatures will initially support rain
or rain/snow mix, but temperatures aloft are cool and surface
temperatures will be falling after dark so expect a chance to
mostly/all snow Wednesday night. There isn't much moisture for
this system to work with and forcing is not particularly robust so
expect any accumulations will be light, ranging from around half
an inch or so up near the Pine Ridge to a dusting south of
Interstate 80. The precipitation may linger a bit into early
Thursday morning but expect Thursday to be generally dry after
daybreak.

A more vigorous system will push a cold front through on Friday.
Moisture is again limited but the signal for wind in
probabilistic guidance is increasing so will have to keep an eye
on overall evolution during the next few days. Heading into the
weekend, ensemble guidance has a good signal for a sharpening
ridge over the western US with temperatures trending well above
normal once again into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

The main weather concern for aviation revolves around an increase
in winds associated with a dry frontal passage. LLWS will exist
across western and north central Nebraska beginning before sunrise
and lasting into the late morning. Strong northwesterly wind
gusts will pick up across the area, starting with northern
Nebraska around sunrise and gradually increasing through the
morning across southwest and central Nebraska. gusts around 40
knots will be possible in the early afternoon in the Sandhills.
Winds will begin to decrease in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

Winds behind a dry cold front will increase considerably
tomorrow with gusts of 40 to 50mph possible across most
of central and western Nebraska. Minimum Relative humidity
will also fall into the 20 to 25 percent range, with values
of 15 to 20 percent expected south of Interstate 80. The
highest confidence in overlap of winds and lowest humidity
will be across south central Nebraska over the Loess Plains
where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Noon through
6PM Tuesday. However the strong gusty winds are a primary
concern for tomorrow and fire weather headlines may be expanded.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for NEZ219.

&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Meltzer
FIRE WEATHER...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082115-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
307 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 /207 PM MST Mon Feb 7 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday for central
Nebraska. Minimum humidity will be 15 to 25 percent, with
blustery northwest winds at 15-25 mph sustained. Gusts up to 50
mph are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte