High Wind Watch 4, NWS North Platte, NE

Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Wheeler County, NE

482 
WWUS73 KLBF 281932
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-290700-
/O.CON.KLBF.HW.A.0004.220430T0600Z-220501T0600Z/
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Valentine, Springview,
Spencer, Butte, Lynch, Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, Oneill, 
Atkinson, Oshkosh, Lewellen, Hyannis, Mullen, Thedford, Halsey, 
Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Taylor, Burwell, Bartlett, Ericson, 
Arthur, Tryon, Ringgold, Stapleton, Broken Bow, Chappell, 
Big Springs, Ogallala, Paxton, Grant, North Platte, Champion, 
Enders, Imperial, Wauneta, Hayes Center, Curtis, Eustis, Maywood,
Cody, Eli, Merriman, and Kilgore
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 /132 PM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022/

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, panhandle, 
  southwest and west central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

Brown

039 
WWUS73 KLBF 290658
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
158 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-292100-
/O.UPG.KLBF.HW.A.0004.220430T0600Z-220501T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLBF.HW.W.0006.220430T0600Z-220501T0600Z/
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
Including the cities of Gordon, Rushville, Valentine, Springview,
Spencer, Butte, Lynch, Ainsworth, Bassett, Rose, Oneill, 
Atkinson, Oshkosh, Lewellen, Hyannis, Mullen, Thedford, Halsey, 
Dunning, Purdum, Brewster, Taylor, Burwell, Bartlett, Ericson, 
Arthur, Tryon, Ringgold, Stapleton, Broken Bow, Chappell, 
Big Springs, Ogallala, Paxton, Grant, North Platte, Champion, 
Enders, Imperial, Wauneta, Hayes Center, Curtis, Eustis, Maywood,
Cody, Eli, Merriman, and Kilgore
158 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 /1258 AM MDT Fri Apr 29 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/
SATURDAY TO 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Western and north central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday to 1 AM CDT 
  /midnight MDT/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1054 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around chances
for convection, primarily tomorrow.

Currently, high clouds continue to filter into the area in
association with an approaching shortwave located near the Four
Corners. Temperatures at 2pm CDT ranged from the lower 60s over
northern Nebraska to the upper 70s in southwest Nebraska.

The aforementioned shortwave will zip northeast this evening,
with at least low end chances for thunderstorms. That said,
believe the bulk of activity will remain well of to the south of
the area, where better instability and forcing is anticipated. By
late tonight, the surface low (currently located over eastern
Colorado) will begin to lift northeastward and will drag a warm
front into the area. Some high-res guidance hints at convective
initiation along and ahead of this boundary for areas east of HWY
83 and near/north of HWY 20. Forecast soundings suggest steep
mid- level lapse rates and ample elevated instability. Deep layer
shear in the cloud bearing layer remains ample for updraft
organization, and an elevated stronger storm with hail can't be
ruled out. Areal coverage looks to remain isolated, and any storms
should quickly move off to the north into South Dakota.
Convective initiation is not widely supported by guidance, though
believe there is enough confidence to warrant at least an
isolated thunderstorm mention.

Moisture advection continues tomorrow as deep east-southeasterly
flow is established across the area. This is in response to
increasing lee cyclogenesis as our next storm system approaches.
By late afternoon, deep mixing should help to erode any capping,
and at least widely isolated high-based thunderstorm development
is possible across the Panhandle ahead of the surface low. The
deep mixing along with the persistent WAA will promote widespread
highs in the 70s to lower 80s again tomorrow. With steep lapse
rates expected in the mid-levels, can't totally rule out some
large hail with any storm that can form. Moist upslope flow
continues into tomorrow night as the surface low gradually begins
to eject eastward. Some high-res guidance again suggests
convective initiation across the Panhandle after midnight. The
formation/evolution of this line remains low confidence, though
potential exists for upscale growth into a more linear mode. If
this were to come to fruition, at least some potential for strong
wind gusts would be possible overnight tomorrow night. Any severe
threat would likely remain west of HWY 83.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Attention then turns to the much advertised weekend system, bringing
with it the potential for widespread moisture, storm chances, and
strong winds.

As the upper low ejects into the Plains it is expected to rapidly
deepen, taking on a negative tilt by Saturday morning. The surface
low is expected to pass through central Nebraska through the day
Friday, before gradually exiting the area into Saturday evening.
Ahead of the surface low, the exact position of the triple point
remains uncertain, but this would present the greatest threat for
severe weather locally. Ample deep layer shear amid increasing
instability could promote supercell development near/ahead of this
feature. This will have to be monitored closely as all severe
hazards would be possible should supercellular development occur.
The zone of greatest concern looks to be in central Nebraska, east
of HWY 83 and along/south of HWY 91.

Large scale ascent increases and widespread shower/embedded
thunderstorm development is expected into Friday. This looks to
present the best chance for widespread beneficial rainfall in some
time. PWATs increase to ~0.75-1.0" through the day Friday, which
will approach/exceed the 90th percentile climo. Confidence continues
to grow in significant (1.0"+) along and north of I-80, with amounts
potentially exceeding 2.5" near the SD/NE border. With precipitation
deficits running ~2-4" below normal across the area, this is very
welcomed. Precipitation will slowly wane into Saturday as the upper
low begins to pull away from the area.

Another issue with this system will be the potential for strong
synoptic wind gusts in the wake of the surface cold front. Good cold
advection, at least some diurnal mixing, and largely unidirectional
flow will help promote the higher momentum flow reaching the
surface. H7-H85 flow on the order of 45-55kts suggest the potential
for gusts of 50mph+, and potentially nearing 60mph, especially
during the afternoon hours. Have trended winds towards the upper end
of guidance, and this gives widespread gusts of 50-55mph. Saturday
will have to be monitored closely for the potential for High Wind
headlines going forward.

Confidence wanes beyond the weekend system, though at least some
potential exists for precipitation early next week. This is in
association with a weak shortwave passing nearby Mon/Tues. The track
of this system remains low confidence, but will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

High level cloudiness will continue to stream across the region
tonight into Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail at all
locations. Winds will also be light, generally around 10 kts or
less from the northeast tonight and becoming east on Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-282000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
258 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 /158 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Isolated thunderstorms may affect north central Nebraska Thursday
morning and early afternoon. Additional thunderstorms will move
into western Nebraska during the late evening and spread east
overnight. A few of those storms may be strong or severe,
primarily west of Highway 83, with the main threats being large
hail and strong winds.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the
day Friday. The greatest potential for severe weather lies across
central Nebraska, mainly along and east of Highway 83. Threats
include large hail and damaging winds.

As precipitation begins to taper on Saturday, winds will
strengthen further. Potential exists for gusts to 60 mph out of
the northwest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte