Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
317 PM EST Tue Feb 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...
It is the calm before the frontal passage. It has been quite a
pleasant day across the Florida Keys with slightly above normal
temperatures and generally light winds. In fact, in a sort of
surprise to us, winds actually clocked around to the east and
southeast recently. This is in response to the approaching front
and has allowed for temperatures to slightly exceed our previous
forecast.

In addition, KBYX radar shows isolated showers are developing
ahead of the main line of rain and embedded isolated
thunderstorms. This line of precipitation is associated with the
front and will be slowly but surely moving east over the next few
hours. The front is expected to then sweep through the Florida
Keys late this evening and overnight. This front will not be
moving at a fast pace and therefore will be slow to pass through
the region, lingering into Wednesday. As a result, expecting
chances to start low this evening and increase through the
overnight, peaking late tonight into Wednesday morning. Due to a
more stable air mass over the Florida Keys and waters immediately
north of the island chain, not expecting thunderstorms tonight or
early tomorrow. Any thunderstorm activity will be limited to our
western most waters tonight and then the Straits of Florida
tomorrow morning.

This front will also initially have stronger winds along the
leading edge of the front and expecting breezy conditions to
develop across the Lower Keys tonight. These winds will be short
lived and diminish towards dawn Wednesday. Thereafter, said front
will linger over the Straits of Florida and Cuba through the end
of the week. This will make for above normal rain chances through
the end of the week.

There will also be a minor change in air mass behind this front
and expecting temperatures to fall a few degrees below normal for
both Wednesday and Thursday.As winds veer more towards the east
towards the end of the week, expecting temperatures to moderate
back up to or slightly above normal. Still monitoring the
prospects of yet another cold front sweeping through over the
weekend. Models are in agreement that this next front could have a
little more oomph. Stay tuned for more details as the week
progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is approaching the region from the west. This front
will gradually slide east starting this evening and continuing
into early Wednesday morning. Freshening breezes and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany this front, especially across our
western most waters. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the deep Gulf and western most Straits of Florida
waters for this evening. The strongest breezes are expected along
the leading edge of the front and will subside overnight.
Nonetheless, expect freshening breezes into the moderate to fresh
range tonight, continuing into Wednesday morning. Thereafter, an
area of high pressure will move across the eastern U.S. allowing
for breezes to slacken to gentle to moderate breezes through
Saturday. The next potential frontal passage looks to be late
Sunday into Monday with another round of freshening breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue for the afternoon and evening. A
frontal passage is expected to occur form west to east late
tonight into early Wednesday, leading to increasing winds and
MVFR CIGs. MVFR CIGs could linger past Wednesday morning before
lifting. In addition, gusty winds will accompany the front,
especially for the EYW terminal.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1895, the daily record low temperature of 49F was recorded in
Key West. Temperature records date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  65  75  63  73 / 50 50 20 10
Marathon  65  74  62  74 / 40 50 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for GMZ033-034-
     055-075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....AP

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