Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1046 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022
The afternoon started off fairly quiet but has become more active
this evening, especially across our western waters. These storms
have been able to blossom fairly efficiently due to the very
unstable air mass in place across the area. Most of this activity
has avoided the Lower Keys thanks to a steering flow from the
south- southeast in our western waters. To the east the steering
flow is becoming more east to southeast. This contrast is due to a
mid to upper level trough residing across the central portions of
the Gulf of Mexico that is retrograding back to the west. At the
same time the subtropical ridge is nosing back in from the east.

The question for the overnight is whether convection will move
across the island chain or remain offshore. Boundaries are
plentiful as seen by the KBYX radar across our area and as noted
earlier, so is instability. However, as these boundaries move
northward from their parent convection, the steering flow will
becoming increasing out of the east. This in turn would carry any
new convection westward. How far north these boundaries make it
will determine if the Keys have a shot of precipitation. Given the
uncertainty of the final resting places of all these boundaries,
have opted to leave low end chance PoPs (30 percent) for now.
Otherwise, surface winds have already back to the east and
southeast and will remain as such through the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move northward
off of Cuba and across our western waters. Winds and seas will be
higher in and around thunderstorms. Additional convection will be
possible through the overnight.

East to southeast breezes will persist through the overnight as
high pressure rebuilds across Florida and the Southeast United
States. Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail Monday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022
VFR conditions will prevail at both the EYW and MTH terminals
tonight and Sunday morning. However, short period of sub-VFR may be
possible along with showers and thunderstorms that are currently
advecting north from Cuba. As of now, steering flow is advecting the
showers and thunderstorms just west of the island chain. Thus, have
opted to keep VCTS out of the terminals forecast. Surface winds will
be out of the east to southeast at 4 to 8 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....KR
Data Acquisition.....AP

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-110800-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be lightning
strikes, reduced visibility in downpours, and locally gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through the
forecast period. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be
lightning strikes, reduced visibility in downpours, and locally
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
1252 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

FLZ078-110515-
Monroe Lower Keys FL-
1252 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lower Keys in Monroe
County through 115 AM EDT...

At 1252 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Geiger Key to near Key West. Movement was
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Key West, Big Coppitt Key, Boca Chica Channel Bridge, Boca Chica,
Fleming Key, Key Haven, Geiger Key, Sunset Key, Shark Key and
Saddlebunch Keys.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 14.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2452 8182 2454 8185 2463 8194 2463 8191
      2459 8189 2458 8184 2467 8179 2473 8168
      2470 8163 2472 8162 2457 8159 2453 8171
      2452 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 159DEG 17KT 2456 8161 2450 8174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NB