Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Key West, FL

988 
WHUS42 KKEY 172100
CFWKEY

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Key West FL
400 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

FLZ076-077-172200-
/O.CAN.KKEY.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-220117T2200Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-
400 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

The Coastal Flood Statement is cancelled for the Upper and Middle 
Keys.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
859 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite imagery this morning revealed a rather robust
stratocu field across the islands and coastal waters; especially
thick over the Florida Straits. Key West radar is finding some
sprinkles from the cloud deck, but probably none of these showers
will amount to measurable rainfall. A strong subsidence inversion
(8 degrees) is evident on the Key West morning sounding, with a
base near 6 kft, which is the ceiling of the stratocu deck. Winds
at Smith Shoal Light are still near 20 knots out of the northwest,
but otherwise winds have calmed to 10 to 15 knots at the CMAN
stations along the reef. Regardless, seas remain above SCA
criteria in the Gulf waters outside of nearshore waters, and in
the western Florida Straits waters. For this reason a SCA will
remain in effect for portions of the Florida Keys waters through
the morning update. Cooler and drier air is still filtering into
the Keys, with dewpoint temperatures currently in the mid 50s.
Temperatures have remained near 70 under the cloud deck, but will
probably only increase a degree or two through the day. If the
cloud deck breaks this evening, temperatures could dip into the
lower 60s over the larger island in the Keys once the winds lay
day and allow some decent radiation cooling. In the upper Keys,
cooler temperatures advecting off the mainland could drop temps in
the mid 50s. Otherwise, the current forecast appears to be on
track, so no major updates to the forecast are expected this
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Although winds have begun to decrease along the reef, seas in our
Gulf waters and western Florida Straits will take several hours
to fall below small craft advisory criteria (7 feet). Therefore,
the advisory will likely remain through the day, but should be
removed later this afternoon or early evening. Moderate to fresh
winds will persist out of the northwest through the day, and begin
to clock to the northeast tomorrow morning in gentle to moderate
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and evening at
both the Key West and Marathon terminals. Periods of VFR ceilings
in the neighborhood of FL060 will persist through the morning
hours and possible into the early afternoon, as a deck of
stratocumulus resides over the Keys and coastal waters, with cloud
tops below FL070. Near surface winds will be out of the northwest
near 12 knots, with occasional gusts near 20 knots. Winds will
begin to decrease this evening and overnight, as they slowly
clock to the northeast, then east by Wednesday.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ033>035-044-054-055-073>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...Devanas
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas
Data Acquisition.....MRR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
516 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-181015-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
516 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Winds are not as strong as they were last evening, but magnitudes
remain near 20 knots for portions of the Florida Keys west of the
Seven Mile Bridge. Also, large seas continue to spread southeast
into areas of the Florida Keys with exposure to the Gulf of
Mexico. The Satan Shoal CDIP wave buoy detects large seas coming
from the west-southwest, highlighting the refraction of the large
seas back to the northeast for areas of Hawk Channel. A Small
Craft Advisory for seas may be be required through tonight.

Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Upper
Keys. If water levels rise a few more inches across the Upper
Keys, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be required. Water levels
should begin to subside tonight and Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CLR