Coastal Flood Statement 24, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
246 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
Water vapor imagery highlights Tropical Storm Julia strengthening
near the Gulf of Honduras, an upper low nearing the Greater
Antilles, and a mean layer ridge covering the Gulf of Mexico and
the extreme western North Atlantic. Satellite derived TPW loops
place a strip of enhanced moisture (~2") from the central Bahamas
to the southwest of Cuba. Showers and storms are forming along the
moisture gradient to the west and southwest of Andros. Surface
winds are from the northeast and average 12 to 14 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints now in the
lower 70s. Skies are mostly sunny.

.FORECAST...
The early taste of fall is about to come to an end. The moisture
plume to our east will slide into the Keys tonight and Sunday, and
we have held onto the above normal rain/thunder chances (50/60%)
advertised by the midnight shift. With high pressure established
over the southeastern US and the western North Atlantic, moderate
to occasionally fresh northeast to east breezes will peak and lull
for the next several days. Enhanced BL moisture will retain above
normal rain/thunder chances through Thursday, with one exception,
Columbus Day. Forecast soundings suggest a low to mid-level dry
slot will drop chances to slight (20%).

The pattern will begin to break Thursday night and Friday as lower
heights carve into the northern Gulf. Steering flow will turn to
the south and potentially southwest on Saturday. All-the-wile, a
fall frontal zone will die across Florida, starting another period
of unsettled weather for South Florida and the Florida Keys. MCSs
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will be in the playbook.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. However, Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution due to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, and
portions of the southeastern Gulf may require a Small Craft
Advisory. Also, a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for
all the Florida Keys, and boaters should allow more slack in
spring and dock lines, and be mindful of less clearance under
fixed bridge during high tide.

High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western
North Atlantic will result in moderate to fresh northeast to east
breezes today through Wednesday. Breezes will tend to peak in the
evening and overnight hours, and lull during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Breezes will diminish and turn to the southeast
to south Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure slides
further east into the western North Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z
Sunday afternoon. However, a moisture surge will push through the
Florida Keys in the early overnight hours, resulting in mention of
VCSH in the TAFs. After a lull during the early morning hours,
another moisture surge will likely result in an additional bout of
increased rain and thunder chances in the vicinity of the
terminals Until showers initiate, confidence in timing and
evolution will remain low, and thus no sub-VFR conditions will be
included in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....NB

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