Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS JSJ

263 
WGCA72 TJSJ 151428
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1028 AM AST Tue Nov 15 2022

PRC069-077-085-103-151438-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0094.000000T0000Z-221115T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Humacao PR-Juncos PR-Las Piedras PR-Naguabo PR-
1028 AM AST Tue Nov 15 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR 
HUMACAO, JUNCOS, LAS PIEDRAS AND NAGUABO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 1827 6593 1825 6587 1826 6585 1824 6569
      1817 6571 1817 6572 1815 6572 1814 6573
      1814 6574 1807 6578 1809 6584 1810 6585
      1812 6585 1811 6587 1812 6588 1813 6593
      1814 6592 1820 6593 1821 6595 1825 6594

$$

DS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
527 AM AST Tue Nov 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Continuing shower activity is likely into the morning. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms have persisted over the waters, pushing
onshore in eastern portions of the region through the night. Active
weather is expected this afternoon, as well, especially affecting
interior and western into northwestern Puerto Rico, with additional
activity in the east associated with streamer development. A drying
trend is expected for midweek into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

A core of moisture with greater than 1.9 inches of precipitable
water is over the forecast area. This will continue to move
westward, with bands of drier and wetter air following in flow
that will gradually turn more easterly and east-northeasterly
during the period. This will lead to a gradual diminution of
showers and thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday and
Thursday, as moisture reaches its lowest point, with precipitable
water of 1.25 inches on Wednesday and then recovers a little on
Thursday. Surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will be
replaced from the north with another high, but the ridge to our
north will remain. Trade wind flow is expected to increase across
the local areas.

At upper levels, shower activity overnight was aided considerably by
the passage over the area of a trough around the west side of the
TUTT northeast of the area. Flow will then continue from the north
while high pressure remains over the southwest Caribbean, and
this will be consistent with the reduction of activity over the
area tonight through Thursday. The TUTT itself will move little
during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Forecast has not changed significantly over the last 24 hours for
the long term, and neither has the reasoning. Still expecting patchy
moisture across the region into the weekend. Precipitable water
values are forecast to be below normal on Friday. On Saturday, a
patch of increased moisture is expected to breeze through the
region, followed by even drier air. Sunday brings more patchy
moisture, with a gradual increase through the day, with more of an
increase later in the day. During this time, an upper-level low is
forecast to push southwestward; this strong TUTT will induce troughs
in the mid-levels and lower levels, as well. On Sunday, this feature
is forecast to be east of the Windward Islands. Overall, expecting a
typical shower pattern, but with inhibited activity. The driest day
could be either Friday or Saturday, depending on the timing of the
patchy moisture. A modest trend towards more active conditions is
expected for Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday bring more active conditions to the region. The
deep-layer trough is forecast to move into the Caribbean on Monday,
and be south of the local islands starting during the day on
Tuesday. This will bring instability to the region, supporting an
increase in convection. Meanwhile, the surface trough, located a
little west of the upper-level feature, will help to drag additional
moisture into the area. Moisture will increase across the islands
through the early part of the next workweek. As a result of this
increased moisture and instability, more shower activity is also
anticipated, remaining in a seasonally typical pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Sct-nmrs +SHRA and isold TSRA will continue across SE PR, the
USVI and adjacent waters with MVFR/IFR conds and mtn obscurations
in ern PR thru at least 15/15Z. These conds will spread across PR
aft 15/16Z. Sfc winds 10-20 kt with hir gusts nr SHRA/TSRA. Max
winds NW 20-30 kt btwn FL420-480.

&&

.MARINE...

There are moderate to locally fresh winds expected across the local
waters, resulting in some choppy conditions. Seas of up to 6 feet
are anticipated across the waters. There is a low to moderate risk
of rip currents across the local beaches. By tonight, a moderate
risk is expected for beaches of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques,
Culebra, and most beaches of Puerto Rico, except south central and
southwestern areas.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...WS
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...WS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Tue Nov 15 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-160900-
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-
North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-
Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters-
452 AM AST Tue Nov 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Puerto Rico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms are expected. Be aware of
thunderstorms in your area and be prepared to take shelter.

.Excessive Rainfall...Flooding of urban areas, roads, small
streams, and washes in western and interior Puerto Rico.

.Excessive Heat...Heat indices up to 103 degrees across
the lower elevations of northern Puerto Rico. Heat exhaustion
possible with prolonged exposure.

.Wind...Breezy conditions. Unsecured items could blow around.

.Marine Conditions...Small craft should exercise caution across
the outer Atlantic waters, the Anegada Passage and the waters
around the U.S. Virgin Islands and the local outer Caribbean
waters.

.Rip Currents...Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the
surf zones with north and east exposures including Culebra and
Vieques.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a limited risk of excessive heat in a few of the lower
elevations of northern Puerto Rico. Urban and small stream
flooding will be possible in southwestern Puerto Rico on Wednesday
and over eastern and western Puerto Rico on Monday. Isolated
thunderstorms should be expected in the area except on Saturday.
There will be spots across Puerto Rico and the local waters with
winds in excess of 20 mph or 17 knots Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-160900-
St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters-
452 AM AST Tue Nov 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of USVI.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms are expected. Be aware of
thunderstorms in your area and be prepared to take shelter.

.Excessive Rainfall.... Urban and small streams flooding is
possible.

.Marine Conditions...Small craft should exercise caution across
the outer Atlantic waters, the Anegada Passage and the waters
around the U.S. Virgin Islands and the local outer Caribbean
waters.

.Rip Currents...There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip
currents at most beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a risk of urban and gut flooding on Monday. There is a
limited risk of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. There will be
spots across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the local waters with
winds in excess of 20 mph or 17 knots Wednesday through Sunday.
There will be a moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday through
Saturday and a high risk on Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.