Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS JSJ

782 
WGCA72 TJSJ 271952
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
352 PM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

PRC001-009-019-039-047-073-101-105-107-141-272002-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-221027T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adjuntas PR-Aibonito PR-Barranquitas PR-Ciales PR-Corozal PR-Jayuya
PR-Morovis PR-Naranjito PR-Orocovis PR-Utuado PR-
352 PM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
ADJUNTAS, AIBONITO, BARRANQUITAS, CIALES, COROZAL, JAYUYA, MOROVIS, 
NARANJITO, OROCOVIS AND UTUADO...

Flood waters continue to recede. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 PM AST Friday for portions 
of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands.

LAT...LON 1832 6683 1835 6673 1832 6671 1838 6642
      1833 6636 1836 6636 1837 6631 1833 6628
      1832 6621 1828 6621 1824 6627 1819 6626
      1815 6622 1808 6625 1817 6633 1818 6647
      1815 6654 1817 6659 1811 6673 1819 6684

$$

ERG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1013 AM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

A near stationary trough will likely result in excessive heavy
rainfall through at least Friday. Although the activity will
gradually diminish in some portions, this unstable weather
conditions may last through the weekend. Additional showers today
and tomorrow over saturated soils and excessive runoff from
previous rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of steep terrain. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch was
extended through Friday evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS..Wet and unstable weather conditions are expected to
prevail throughout the rest of the workweek due to an upper-level
trough and lingering surface trough over the region. A Flash Flood
Watch continues in effect through this evening for PR and the USVI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands through this evening. Please refer to the latest Flash Flood
Watch (FFASJU) for more information

An unsettled weather pattern will continue today across the region
as an upper-level trough and associated surface trough continues to
promote moisture pooling across the islands. However, the upper-
level trough is gradually weakening and 500 mb temperatures are
expected to remain around -5.5C through the short term period.
Meanwhile, a weak upper-level ridge will gradually build across the
eastern Caribbean and a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic will promote moderate southeasterly trades across the
region. This scenario suggest a slow drying pattern through the
weekend, with PWAT values forecasted to decrease from around 2.30
inches today to near 2.00 inches on Saturday. Regardless, this
moisture content is still above normal values, and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop each day in diurnal activity.
Today should be the wettest day, in terms of areal coverage across
all islands. Then, a more seasonable pattern is expected on Friday
and Saturday with nighttime convection favoring the windward areas
of the islands, followed by afternoon convection downwind of the
islands and across portions of the interior and western PR.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

The inherited forecast is still on track. On Sunday, expect
another moisture surge to reach the forecast area, as the low-
pressure system approaches. This wet pattern will prevail through
the first part of the workweek. Latest model run is suggesting
that Tuesday will be the peak of the event, with moisture contents
reaching 2 inches. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
this system and is giving it a 50% chance of development within
the next five days. At this time, the system does not represent a
direct impact on the local islands other than an increase in
moisture content across the region. The main threats with this
event are flooding and mudslides, due to how saturated the soils
are. Urban and small stream flooding is very likely with the
passage of this weather feature. Expect Wednesday to be a
transition day, as models suggest a more seasonal weather pattern
through at least Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

The inherited forecast is still on track. On Sunday, expect
another moisture surge to reach the forecast area, as the low-
pressure system approaches. This wet pattern will prevail through
the first part of the workweek. Latest model run is suggesting
that Tuesday will be the peak of the event, with moisture contents
reaching 2 inches. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
this system and is giving it a 50% chance of development within
the next five days. At this time, the system does not represent a
direct impact on the local islands other than an increase in
moisture content across the region. The main threats with this
event are flooding and mudslides, due to how saturated the soils
are. Urban and small stream flooding is very likely with the
passage of this weather feature. Expect Wednesday to be a
transition day, as models suggest a more seasonal weather pattern
through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 AM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

Unsettled weather conditions will continue across the local
region. Therefore, MVFR conditions across local terminals will
remain possible throughout this evening. JPS/JSJ/IST/ISX/JBQ can
expect TSRA/SHRA at times. Another round with +TSRA/+SHRA will
return after 28/04z. Winds will continue from the SE/ESE at 10-15
knots and locally higher near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...Sct-Num SHRA with Isold TSRA will continue to affect the
regional waters and the local flying area today, as a tropical wave
continues to cross the region while interacting with an upper-level
trough. SCT ocnl bkn lyrs nr FL025..FL050...BKN-OVC lyrs btw FL080-
FL120. Winds will increase from the east-southeast at 10 to 15 kts
with sea breeze variations aft 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1007 AM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

Mariners should exercise caution across the local waters due to
thunderstorm activity. This activity may produce frequent
lightning, sudden waterspout and strong winds. We did not
introduce new changes.

&&

.MARINE...Increasing winds and the passage of a tropical wave
across the Caribbean waters will maintain choppy seas today, mainly
across the offshore Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage. As a
result, small craft operators should exercise caution due to seas up
to 6 feet and east to southeasterly winds near 20 knots. Please
refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU) issued by WFO
San Juan PR for latest updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for PRZ001>013.

VI...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VIZ001-002.

&&

RADAR...CAM
PUBLIC DESK....MMC
PUBLIC DESK...ERG
RADAR...ERH

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
520 AM AST jueves 27 de octubre de 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-280930-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del
Caribe-
520 AM AST jueves 27 de octubre de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico.

.Rayos...Tronadas de aisladas a dispersas se esperan a traves de
Puerto Rico, Culebra y Vieques. Este atento a las tronadas en su
area y este preparado para refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones repentinas esta en
efecto hasta temprano en la noche. Por favor refierase a la ultima
vigilancia de inundaciones (FFASJU) para mayor informacion.

. Vientos...Se esperan condiciones ventosas a traves de las aguas
locales y las aguas costeras del sur de Puerto Rico. Asegure objetos
que esten sueltos.

.Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas
deben ejercer precausion a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales
debido a vientos de hasta 20 nudos. Oleaje de hasta 6 pies a traves
de las aguas del Caribe y Pasaje de la Mona.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en las zonas de olas rompientes para la mayoria de las
playas de Puerto Rico incluyendo Culebra y Vieques.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes

Un riesgo moderado de inundaciones repentinas continuara a traves de
las playas de las islas hasta la proxima semana. Se esperan
inundaciones urbanas y de pequenos riachuelos cada tarde a traves
del interior y oeste de Puerto Rico debido a tronadas.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Se recomienda a los observadores a reportar. Por favor, brinde toda
la informacion relacionada a inundaciones al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-280930-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
520 AM AST jueves 27 de octubre de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.DIA UNO...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Rayos... Se esperan tronadas aisladas a traves de las Islas
Virgenes Americanas. Este atento a las tronadas en su area y este
preparado para refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones repentinas esta en
efecto hasta temprano en la noche. Por favor refierase a la ultima
vigilancia de inundaciones (FFASJU) para mayor informacion.

. Vientos...Se esperan condiciones ventosas a traves de las aguas
locales.

.Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas
deben ejercer precausion a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales
debido a los vientos de hasta 20 nudos. Oleaje de hasta 6 pies a
traves de las aguas del Caribe y Pasaje de la Mona.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en las zonas de olas rompientes, particularmente a
traves de la mayoria de las playas de Santa Cruz y las playas del
oeste de St. Thomas.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes hasta miercoles

El riesgo moderado de inundaciones continuara a traves de las playas
de las islas hasta la proxima semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Se recomienda a los observadores a reportar. Por favor, brinde toda
la informacion relacionada a inundaciones al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia.