Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS JSJ

087 
WGCA72 TJSJ 261745
FFSSJU

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

PRC049-261755-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-221026T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Culebra PR-
145 PM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CULEBRA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 PM AST Thursday for 
portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands.

LAT...LON 1834 6539 1832 6533 1835 6534 1837 6537
      1833 6529 1835 6524 1834 6523 1834 6525
      1831 6522 1834 6526 1829 6526 1831 6530
      1830 6530 1828 6529 1831 6531 1833 6532
      1830 6533

$$

CAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
542 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

...New SYNOPSIS, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 457 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

An upper level trough has created an active band of convergence
with showers and thunderstorms that will move across Puerto Rico
today and into the U.S. Virgin Islands. A tropical wave will also
move into the area from the east creating very wet conditions over
most of the area. A flash Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions will improve somewhat
through the rest of the week but both Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands are expected to be wet through at least Friday,
with showers and thunderstorms in rich moisture carrying on well
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

The short term forecast remains on track. An upper-level low and the
associated surface trough in combination with a tropical wave will
maintain wet and unstable weather conditions today and tomorrow.
This will cause widespread shower activity along with thunderstorms
across the region. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch was issued for
all of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where urban and
flash flooding impacts are likely, including mudslides in areas of
steep terrain. With the activity of today and tomorrow, rainfall
accumulations will range between 6 and 8 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches over the eastern third of Puerto Rico
and between 2 to 6 inches, elsewhere. Residents and visitors
should remain alert for flooding in urban areas and water surges
in the local rivers.

On Friday, as the upper-level low and associated surface trough
moves northward, the wind pattern at the surface will turn from the
southeast, setting up low-level convergence over the area. This will
promote moisture pooling across the forecast area with plenty of
tropical moisture increasing precipitable water values above
climatological normals. Therefore, expect an active weather day,
especially in the afternoon hours with enhancement of local and
diurnal effects. Continued flood impacts are also likely on
Friday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...

The upper level trough to our northwest will move northeast
Saturday and Sunday, but some influence will still be felt. As it
goes by, the 700 mb high in the central Atlantic will be able to
push some drier air into the area and this will reduce the over
all precipitable water values--though not below 2 inches. But, a
tropical wave currently near 50 west and 8 degrees north will move
into the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Friday and there is a fair
probability at this time that it will initiate cyclogenesis near
the coast of Venezuela. By Saturday night, the southeast flow
diverted around this low will already be bringing another surge of
moisture into the area that will continue the wet pattern through
at least Monday night. Currently, the GFS does not develop this
low substantially until Tuesday night or Wednesday and this will
allow modestly moist air to replace the supercharged tropical
airmass that the system will have brought up Saturday night
through Monday. Actually, with one minor exception Sunday morning,
precipitable water values will remain above 2 inches through
Tuesday morning of next week where normal is around 1.7 inches.
This continued moisture in modestly unstable air (500 mb
temperatures remain between minus 5 and minus 6 degrees the whole
time) will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms with local
urban and small stream flooding each day in an easterly windflow
pattern. Because of the already saturated soils, flooding and
mudslides will continue to be a risk throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022
Poor weather conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Sct-Num SHRA and TSRA will continue thru 26/18z across the most
of PR and the USVI resulting in periods of MVFR conds across all
TAF sites. Additionally, +SHRA with VCTS & TSRA are expected over
the north coast of PR affecting the regional waters and the local
flying area. SFC winds will remain from the E-SE at 10 kt with
higher gusts near the thunderstorms, increasing to 10- 15 kt
around 26/14Z with sea breeze variations. Maximum winds 30-45 kt veering
from SSW at FL220 to WSW at FL500. Strongest winds at FL350, 400
and 470.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 457 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

Marine conditions will remain generally southeast 10 to 15 knots,
but will be variable around showers and thunderstorms and in the
vicinity of a north-south oriented trough currently over the
western third of Puerto Rico. This trough will move across Puerto
Rico and the waters north and south of it today and stall around
the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight through Friday. Locally stronger
winds will bring seas up to 6 feet in the activity. Winds turn
toward the east on Saturday as the trough returns to the west will
and remain easterly through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 457 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

A very wet period across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
has begun. Rainfall amounts over the local waters have exceeded 5
inches in the last 12 hours, and since midnight, 3.5 inches have
fallen over the eastern part of Guayama. Much of the south coast
has received over one half inch. Many areas this week have
received considerable rainfall and will be subject to debris flows
including boulders that can drop onto roads without warning.
Residents are urged to exercise extreme caution if they must
travel today and tomorrow. For more details please see the Flash
Flood Watch issued by the National Weather Service.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for PRZ001>013.

VI...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VIZ001-002.

&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....WS
AVIATION...LIS

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
545 AM AST miercoles 26 de octubre de 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-260915-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del
Caribe-
545 AM AST miercoles 26 de octubre de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Rayos...Tronadas de aisladas a dispersas se esperan a traves de las
islas. Este atento a las tronadas en su area y este preparado para
refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones repentinas esta en
efecto hasta el jueves temprano en la noche. Inundaciones de areas
urbanas, carreteras, riachuelos y arroyos. Inundaciones repentinas
aisladas son posibles.

. Vientos...Se esperan condiciones ventosas a traves de las aguas
locales y cerca de Culebra. Asegure objetos que esten sueltos.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en las zonas de olas rompientes, particularmente a
traves de la costa norte, sureste, este y oeste de Puerto Rico, al
igual que las playas en Vieques y Culebra.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes

El peligro por inundaciones y rayos continua elevado el jueves. Por
lo tanto, sigue en efecto una Vigilancia de inundaciones repentinas
hasta el jueves temprano en la noche. Luego se espera que prevalezca
un riesgo elevado a traves de sectores del interior y oeste de
Puerto Rico durante el periodo. El viento y las condiciones
maritimas se espera aumenten ligeramente el jueves. Los indices de
calor podrian llegar a los 102 grados el sabado al domingo a traves
del norte central de la isla.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Se recomienda a los observadores a reportar. Por favor, brinde toda
la informacion relacionada a inundaciones al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-250845-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
545 AM AST miercoles 26 de octubre de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.DIA UNO...Hoy y Esta Noche

.Rayos... Se esperan tronadas de aisladas a dispersas a traves de
las islas el dia de hoy . Revise su plan para sus actividades al
aire libre. Este atento a las tronadas en su area y este preparado
para refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Una Vigilancia de Inundaciones repentinas esta en
efecto hasta el jueves temprano en la noche. Inundaciones de areas
urbanas, carreteras, riachuelos y arroyos. Inundaciones repentinas
aisladas son posibles.

. Vientos...Se esperan condiciones ventosas a traves de las aguas
locales. Asegure objetos que esten sueltos.

.Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida
son posibles en las zonas de olas rompientes, particularmente a
traves de las playas orientadas el extremo este de Santa Cruz.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes

El peligro por inundaciones y rayos continua elevado el jueves. Por
lo tanto, sigue en efecto una Vigilancia de inundaciones repentinas
hasta el jueves temprano en la noche. El viento y las condiciones
maritimas se espera aumenten ligeramente el jueves.
.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

Se recomienda a los observadores a reportar. Por favor, brinde toda
la informacion relacionada a inundaciones al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

PRZ003-261000-
Southeast PR-
534 AM AST Wed Oct 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Arroyo, Guayama,
Maunabo and Patillas Municipalities through 600 AM AST...

At 534 AM AST, a strong thunderstorm was over Arroyo, moving north
near 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Guayama, Arroyo, Patillas, Corazon, Olimpo, Palmas, Buena Vista,
Jobos, Yaurel, Lamboglia and Palo Seco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 1803 6617 1805 6597 1799 6590 1798 6599
      1798 6602 1797 6603 1795 6616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 164DEG 17KT 1800 6605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DSR