Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
306 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2022

Afternoon analysis shows what was previously an upper level low over
the SE US has now opened up into a trough and is lifting to the
northeast today. Another trough is located over the northern plains,
and weak ridging stretches from the southern plains into the mid
west. At the surface, there is weak low pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic, high pressure over the SE US, and multiple frontal
boundaries to our west over the mid west and the northern plains.

It will continue to be an unsettled pattern over Eastern KY during
the short term. Morning showers and storms over the southern half of
the area have temporarily stabilized the atmosphere there, however
storms are now starting to develop over the northern half of the
area where the better CAPE and low level lapse rates reside. Shear
remains weak along with the steering flows, so the severe threat
will remain limited, however some localized flooding concerns will
persist through early this evening with the slow storm motions,
especially if there is any back-building over the same areas.

Late tonight and overnight, the coverage of convection should
diminish, however slight chance to chance Pops remain as the
weakening boundary over the mid west approaches the area and a short
wave moves through the area. It will be a mild evening with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the rainfall
today, and calm winds expected overnight, some patchy fog is
expected, even outside of the typical river valleys.

Overall a drier trend to start off Sunday as the shortwave moves
east of the area, although some scattered showers and storms are
possible during the afternoon into early evening as instability
increases during the peak heating of the day. It will be a slightly
warmer day, with afternoon high temps in the lower to middle 80s.

Late Sunday night into early Monday, a cold front and trough
approach from the northwest. Showers and storms are expected along
and ahead of the front as we head into the early morning hours on
Monday. While the severe threat should stay to our west, a few
stronger storms can't be ruled out overnight into the early morning.
Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Overnight lows
remaining mild only dropping down into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2022

At the beginning of the extended, a negatively tilted trough axis
over the Midwest will be pressing south and eastward. A surface low
associated with the trough will have lifted and draped a weak cold
frontal boundary under it across the southern Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Surface high pressure begins to form in the Smoky Mountains
late Sunday night, producing stable conditions in the low levels for
most of the region. By Sunday evening, most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be confined to the southeastern counties
of the Commonwealth. The developing surface high should clear most
of the remaining low level clouds and precip. The clearer skies will
be short lived however, with the frontal boundary and associated
showers and storms expected to arrive by Monday morning. Forecast
POPs range from 40 to 50 north of the Mountain Parkway, and from
30 to 40 to the south and west. Additionally, the trend towards
less local instability and shear values implies that most of the
precipitation will fall as light to moderate showers, but a rumble
of thunder is definitely not out of the question.

Shower activity is expected to continue through the morning and
early midday hours as the cold front continues to progress eastward.
In the front's wake, enhanced northwest flow will quickly dry out
and cool the mid and upper levels. The cooler flow associated with
the trough digging southwards from the upper Midwest may stifle
afternoon highs on Monday. Thus, slight cool adjustments were made
for Monday afternoon's max temperatures, which are in line with the
latest guidance. Surface high pressure in the Plains and lower
Midwest will begin to build eastward, further clearing out cloud
cover by the late afternoon and evening hours Monday. Temperatures
are expected to dip rather swiftly by Monday night, dropping into
the upper 40s in the protected valleys and into the low to mid 50s
along the ridges. Clear skies and plentiful sunshine remain overhead
on Tuesday, which should allow readings to rebound into the upper
70s to low 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

By the mid-week period, flow across most of the CONUS is mostly
quasi-zonal. A shortwave along the flow ejects westward out of the
Plains by Wednesday afternoon. A warm front on the leading edge of
the wave lifts northeastward over the CWA late Wednesday through
Thursday, causing a notable rise in temperature and humidity and
raising the threat for showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble solutions
are spread in their positional expectation of the boundary on
Wednesday, which has caused a considerable spread in both
operational and MOS guidance. That said, the blend has leaned
towards more a seasonal outlook in terms of peak temperatures
Wednesday, but cooler outcomes are well within the realm of
possibility.

By the end of the week, an upper ridge axis and a strengthening
Bermuda high will usher in potential summer-like heat and humidity
into the Commonwealth. Max temperatures for Thursday and Friday will
range from the low 80s to the upper 80s, but there is a potential
for a 90 degree reading on Friday near the KY/border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening, which may result in brief flight restrictions
especially during heavier showers and storms. Winds are SW around
5 kts and expected to become light and variable tonight and
overnight. Some patchy fog is expected overnight into early Sunday
morning, and may impact some of the terminals.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...LUEHRS
AVIATION...CMF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
236 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ104-106-109-141900-
Elliott KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-
236 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Morgan,
northwestern Magoffin and southwestern Elliott Counties through 300
PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lick Branch, or near West Liberty, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Little Sandy around 240 PM EDT.
  Gordon Ford around 245 PM EDT.
  Lenox around 250 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Steele, Elamton,
Elkfork, Jeptha, Crockett, Cottle, Florress, Dingus, Logville and
Haleburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8334 3807 8326 3805 8305 3782 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 284DEG 6KT 3797 8322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
243 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ052-104-141915-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-
243 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Rowan and
northwestern Elliott Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Olive Hill, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Stark, Bruin and Newfoundland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 8312 3823 8309 3818 8305 3820 8304
      3821 8301 3819 8301 3819 8299 3811 8301
      3817 8329 3820 8328 3820 8327 3819 8324
      3824 8322 3827 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 284DEG 6KT 3824 8318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER

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