High Wind Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

574 
WWUS73 KJKL 172041
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
341 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

KYZ113-115>117-180445-
/O.UPG.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Including the cities of Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, 
Manchester, and Hyden
341 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For most valley locations, expect south to southwest
  winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph this evening.
  At higher elevations south of Highway 80 and the Hal Rogers
  Parkway, winds will gust up to 60 mph. The strongest winds are 
  expect along and just ahead of a line of strong showers and 
  thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Knott, Perry, Clay and Leslie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could blow down trees and impact power
  lines. Scattered to widespread power outages are possible.
  Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on
  west to east oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ088-118-120-180445-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, 
Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
341 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 50
  mph expected this evening. A few gusts up to 60 mph are expected
  on the higher ridges. The strongest winds are expected along 
  and just ahead of line of strong showers and thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Harlan, Letcher and Pike Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel may be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>112-114-
119-180445-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Martin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, 
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, 
Booneville, and Inez
341 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph with few gusts up to 50 mph
  expected. The strongest winds are expected this evening, along
  and ahead of a line of strong showers and storms.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs and weakly rooted trees could be blown down resulting in
  isolated to scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

264 
WWUS73 KJKL 172051
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
351 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

KYZ084>086-180500-
/O.UPG.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-
Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, 
Williamsburg, and Barbourville
351 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 45 to 60 mph.
  The highest gusts are expected this evening just ahead of and 
  along a line of strong showers and thunderstorms.

* WHERE...McCreary, Whitley and Knox Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could blow down trees and impact power
  lines. Scattered to widespread power outages are possible.
  Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on
  west to east oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ087-180500-
/O.UPG.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Bell-
Including the cities of Middlesboro and Pineville
351 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 50
  mph expected this evening. A few gusts up to 60 mph are expected
  on the higher ridges. The strongest winds are expected along and
  just ahead of line of strong showers and thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Bell County.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel may be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ113-115>117-180500-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Including the cities of Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, 
Manchester, and Hyden
351 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For most valley locations, expect south to southwest 
  winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph this evening. 
  At higher elevations south of Highway 80 and the Hal Rogers 
  Parkway, winds will gust up to 60 mph. The strongest winds are 
  expect along and just ahead of a line of strong showers and 
  thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Knott, Perry, Clay and Leslie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could blow down trees and impact power
  lines. Scattered to widespread power outages are possible.
  Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on
  west to east oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ088-118-120-180500-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, 
Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
351 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 
  50 mph expected this evening. A few gusts up to 60 mph are 
  expected on the higher ridges. The strongest winds are 
  expected along and just ahead of line of strong showers and 
  thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Harlan, Letcher and Pike Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel may be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>112-114-119-
180500-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Martin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Booneville, and Inez
351 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph with few gusts up to 50 
  mph expected. The strongest winds are expected this evening, 
  along and ahead of a line of strong showers and storms.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs and weakly rooted trees could be blown down resulting in
  isolated to scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

932 
WWUS73 KJKL 180317
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1017 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

KYZ084>086-113-115>117-180600-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, 
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, 
Manchester, and Hyden
1017 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For most valley locations, expect south to southwest
  winds becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
  this evening. At higher elevations south of Highway 80 and the
  Hal Rogers Parkway, winds will gust up to 60 mph. 

* WHERE...Knott, Perry, Clay and Leslie Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could blow down trees and impact power 
  lines. Scattered to widespread power outages are possible. 
  Travel may be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles 
  on west to east oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-180600-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
1017 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph
  with gusts to 50 mph expected this evening. A few gusts up to 60
  mph are expected on the higher ridges. 

* WHERE...Harlan, Letcher and Pike Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel may be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>112-114-119-
180600-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Martin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Booneville, and Inez
1017 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with few gusts up to 50 mph
  expected. 

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and weakly rooted trees could be blown down 
  resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

021 
WWUS73 KJKL 180559 AAA
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1259 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

KYZ086>088-113-115>118-120-180800-
/O.CAN.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0800Z/
Knox-Bell-Harlan-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, 
Cumberland, Harlan, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, 
Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
1259 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph.

* WHERE...Knox, Bell, Harlan, Knott, Perry, Clay, Leslie, 
  Letcher and Pike Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and weakly rooted trees could be blown down 
  resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KYZ084-085-180700-
/O.CAN.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
McCreary-Whitley-
Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, 
and Williamsburg
1259 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The worst of the winds are starting to settle down through the 
area therefore the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. 

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106-108-111-114-
180700-
/O.CAN.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Sandy Hook, 
West Liberty, Campton, Beattyville, and Booneville
1259 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds are starting to settle down through the area therefore the 
Wind Advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

KYZ107-109-110-112-119-180800-
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T0800Z/
Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Martin-
Including the cities of Paintsville, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Jackson, and Inez
1259 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with few gusts up 
  to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and weakly rooted trees could be blown down 
  resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CMF/GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1250 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM EST THU FEB 17 2022

The current forecast is on track with just some high and mid level
clouds moving through amid some scattered indicators of a ridge
to valley temperature split in the far east. Accordingly, have
merely added in the latest obs and trends to the T/Td grids. These
updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM EST WED FEB 16 2022

Freshened up the near term grids with the latest obs, but
otherwise forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST WED FEB 16 2022

Made tweaks to Pop and sky cover overnight, along with near term
wind gusts. Today's wind advisory expired, so re-sent the NPW for
tomorrow's wind headlines and updated the HWO. Updates sent to
NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 428 PM EST WED FEB 16 2022

Through 12z Thursday...
Surface high pressure off the eastern seaboard will continue to
keep warmer and drier weather across the area. The forecast area
is also located within the warm sector ahead of a cold front that
is expected to cross the area tomorrow night. As for late this
afternoon, warmer temperatures and gusty winds will be dominant.
Surface winds could reach 40 to 45 knots as a strong 850 low-level
jet moves overhead into the evening. Winds diminish slightly
overnight; however, winds are still expected to be strong.
Overnight temperatures are progged to be in the mid to upper-40s
with a few low-50s.

12z Thursday-12z Friday...
A powerful storm system will impact eastern Kentucky with strong
winds and a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms late
Thursday into Thursday evening. The primary severe threat will be
damaging wind gusts, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. Outside of thunderstorms, widespread south to southwest wind
gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected Thursday into Thursday night.
There is a possibility for stronger wind gusts near the Virginia
border.

The 16/12z model suite is generally in good agreement with the
overall large-scale pattern but there are differences in timing,
location, and strength of the smaller scale features. Rapidly
deepening low pressure will race from eastern Oklahoma Thursday
morning to eastern Maine late Thursday night. An intense warm
conveyor belt jet will feed rich Gulf moisture into the Ohio
Valley ahead of the low pressure system and its trailing cold
front.

The powerful low-level jet is highlighted by both the NAEFS and
ECWMF ENS which show 850 mb winds peaking at 70+ knots (4 to 5
standard deviations from climo) over eastern Kentucky Thursday
evening. Some of the higher res guidance shows wind speeds in this
jet reaching an incredible 80 to 90 knots. The big question
remains how much of this momentum will mix down to the surface.
Soundings continue to show weak low-level lapse rates but no
notable inversions, thus anything that can enhance vertical mixing
probably will. The BUKFIT momentum transfer remain surprisingly
weak compared to hi-res models and especially the global models,
only suggesting peak environmental wind gusts in the 30 to 45 mph
range. This may very well end up being the case for locations away
from any mechanism to overcome the weak surface stability. These
wind gusts are still strong enough for Wind Advisory -- one has
been hoisted for all of eastern Kentucky from 9 AM onward to cover
this wind potential. In our two southeastern tiers of counties,
the advisory transitions into a High Wind Watch at 4 PM. Some of
the guidance, such as the RAP13, indicate that the core of the
strong southerly jet flowing over the Cumberland Mountains may be
dynamically forced downward in the lee of Pine, Black, and
Cumberland mountains, which could lead to enhanced mechanical
mixing, downslope warming, and more efficient momentum transfer.
This was well depicted in the 12z HRRR. If this occurs,
significantly stronger environmental wind gusts are possible in
this area. A High Wind Watch has been hoisted for those counties
where this is a concern. If later guidance shows greater
confidence in this potential, all or a portion of the Watch may be
upgraded to a warning. Otherwise, later shifts will continue the
ongoing advisory for these counties.

In addition to the widespread strong winds, the powerful jet will
produce extreme amounts of 0-6 km bulk shear (60+ knots) and
storm relative helicity, but the the lack of instability should
keep the atmosphere’s kinematic potential from being fully
realized. Any deep convection will struggle to develop in the warm
sector before being torn apart by the excessive shear. Instead,
expect a vast majority of the convection develop along the
system’s cold front (and possibly a leading prefrontal trough)
where the minimal instability will be enhanced by strong upward
forcing. Current forecasts show the leading convective line
reaching the I-75 corridor around 00z and exiting to the east in 3
to 4 hours. Any deeper convection along this line will be capable
of mixing down momentum from aloft and producing damaging wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph. While the lack of instability severely
limits the potential for sustained supercells with this
convection, the HRRR and HRW-ARW (often the best CAM for high
shear/low CAPE supercell environments) are depicting weak helicity
swaths and perhaps some transient weak supercell features. Given
0-1 km SRH values of greater than 150m2s2, a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out with stronger convection. The greatest threat for a
tornado would likely be near/north of I-64 closer to the passing
surface low.

At this point, the flooding threat appears minimal due to
extremely fast cell motions. However, an isolated minor flooding
issue cannot be ruled out under any locations that experience the
most cell training. Storm total rainfall amounts are generally
expected to range from 0.5 inch in Pike County up to 1.25 inch
west of I-75 and north of I-64. The 16/12z HREF LPMM 24-hour
precipitation plots suggest that a few isolated amounts of around
1.50 inches are possible.

Besides the wind, rain, and severe potential, Thursday will be a
very warm and windy day with temperatures warming well into the
60s to near 70 for most locations. Once the front passes Thursday
evening, winds turn northwesterly sending temperatures tumbling
to below freezing by sunrise Friday. While most of the rain will
exit with the front by midnight, lingering low-level moisture and
some forcing ahead of an approaching vort lobe will keep the
threat for rain showers transitioning to snow shower or flurries
going through the remainder of the night. Any snow accumulations
will be minor, ranging from a trace to a few tenths.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 449 PM EST WED FEB 16 2022

The models are in decent agreement with the long wave pattern
deamplifying through this weekend, before sharpening up a bit
more once again towards the end of the period. A trough axis
aligned from the Great Lakes down through the southern Plains will
cruise eastward, bringing the Ohio and Tennessee valleys a quick
shot of cold air. The flow will flatten out east of the Rockies
this weekend, before ridging amplifies across the eastern Pacific
into next week, allowing for troughing to take shape west of the
Rockies. This will set up warm and moist southwest flow across the
Mississippi Valley, allowing for a more persistent baroclinic
zone and a return to a wet and above normal temperature pattern
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Details remain murky by
next week, as timing and amplitude differences is allowing for
larger ensemble spread. Overall, did favor a slower timing to the
transition, given the pattern evolution.

Mostly cloudy and cold conditions will start out across eastern
Kentucky, with ongoing cold air advection through the morning and
upslope flow and a traversing trough axis supporting some
flurries through the day. These look to diminish in the afternoon from
west to east as high pressure and its associated drier air work
in. Have stayed on the cooler side of guidance for the highs, with
mid to upper 30s expected. Mostly clear skies will build in for
Friday night, allowing for lows in the 20s, although a quickly
moving low pressure system to our north and approaching cold front
should allow for a modest ridge/valley split within the relative
warm sector. The cold front passes through dry on Saturday, with
some potentially lower relative humidity values occurring for the
weekend. As such, stayed toward the 10th percentile of the
blended guidance for dew points. Saturday highs will be closer to
seasonal, before highs return to around 60 on Sunday. Dry weather
will hold on through early Monday morning, before rain chances
ramp up thereafter with the approach of a slow-moving cold front.
Temperatures will average well above normal, with highs in the
60s and lows modifying from the 30s and 40s, to the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST THU FEB 17 2022

VFR conditions start the 06Z TAF period. Southerly winds will
remain breezy with gusts of 15 to 20 kts overnight before ramping
up again mid-morning Thursday through the end of the TAF period.
Expect south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 30
to 40 kts, especially during the afternoon into the evening
Thursday. With gusts that high have left out wind shear even
though winds could be another 10 kts higher just off the sfc,
from generally the same direction. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms occur on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours, as well. As a result, ceilings fall throughout the
day, with SYM the most likely to reach MVFR by mid afternoon and
SME to follow shortly after. Winds shift to the west and start to
settle as fropa crosses the area during the evening along with
ceilings dropping to the IFR range from west to east.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-
112-114-119.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon
for KYZ085>088-110-113-115>118-120.

High Wind Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
KYZ085>088-110-113-115>118-120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON/VORST
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMF/GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-
181145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
and Inez
345 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong southerly to southwesterly winds are expected into tonight,
with gusts in excess of 45 mph likely.

There is also a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Any storms that develop could become severe, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. However, a tornado
cannot be ruled out from one of the more organized storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage into tonight.

KYZ088-118-120-181145-
Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg,
Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
345 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Very strong south to southwest winds are expected into tonight,
with gusts of 40 to 50 mph likely. Some gusts could be as high as
60 mph on the ridges late this afternoon and evening.

There is also a possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Any storms that develop could become severe, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage into tonight.

GREIF/BATZ