Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Jackson, KY

673 
WGUS73 KJKL 070000
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

KYC175-070200-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-220807T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan KY-
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY...

At 800 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that thunderstorms had moved 
east of the area; however excessive runoff from previous heavy 
rainfall will continue to cause isolated flash flooding in low lying 
areas.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  West Liberty, Pomp, Licking River, Lick Branch, Liberty Road, 
  Yocum, Dehart, Woodsbend, Twentysix, Zag, Lenox, Kellacey, Steele, 
  Omer, Elamton, Ebon and Elkfork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 8343 3799 8312 3789 8317 3793 8345

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GEOGERIAN

078 
WGUS73 KJKL 070152
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
952 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

KYC175-070202-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-220807T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan KY-
952 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended and high water is receding. Please continue 
to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT Sunday for 
portions of east central Kentucky, northeast Kentucky, south central 
Kentucky and southeast Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3801 8343 3799 8312 3789 8317 3793 8345

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
540 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 540 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

20Z sfc analysis shows a southwest flow of air continuing to
replenish the moisture in place over Kentucky as we reside between
deep low pressure to the west and high pressure off to the east.
In addition, an MCV crawling over the region is helping to keep
slow moving showers and thunderstorms sustained over this part of
the state. The earlier group of showers and storms actually helped
to stabilize the atmosphere for awhile in the southeast and most
sensitive parts of the area. However, now enough sunshine has
broken through that instability was able to rebuild and so has the
potential for thunderstorms there. Accordingly, this area will be
need to be watched closely through the evening until the energy
wanes. Otherwise, temperatures have rebounded into the low 80s
most places, though some low and mid 70s are noted in the south
where storms have moved through. Dewpoints remain elevated in the
low 70s while winds, away from storms, are generally from the
southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict the 5h pocket of lower
heights through the Ohio Valley this evening with an impulse
slowly retrograding southwest through the state. This will
maintain upper level support for genning up storms still this
evening and through the day Sunday, though slightly higher heights
in the southeast may lessen the threat later in the period into
Monday morning. The small model spread and finer details of the
models aloft suggested that the NBM would be a reasonable starting
point for the grids - especially when PoPs are supplemented with
consensus guidance from the hi-res CAMs.

Sensible weather features a substantive threat of renewed
flooding in the western parts of the area and also a conditional
one for the vulnerable places of the southeast this evening. The
daytime instability will fade later this evening and with it the
primary threat of for flash flooding. Look for patchy fog to
develop over area where the skies manage to clear overnight as
temperatures remain mild and conditions quite muggy. Look for
additional showers and storms to develop on Sunday with slow
movement, training, and high PW air a continued concern. Although
coverage is not expected to be a robust as today there is enough
of a threat to warranted the extension of the flash flood watch
into that evening in conjunction with RLX. Again, Sunday night
mild and muggy conditions prevail along with some patchy fog once
the instability wanes and any storms dissipate.

The main adjustments to the NBM grids were to incorporate more
CAMs details into the PoPs through this evening and into Sunday.
Did also make some minor tweaks to the T grids for some terrain
details late tonight and again Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

Key Concerns:
* Slow-moving pop-up storms could produce isolated flash flooding
  on Monday.
* Sluggish cold front brings threat for more widespread heavy
  rainfall from Tuesday through early Thursday.

Analysis and Discussion:
The latest model suite analysis continues to show ~1024 mb high
pressure and its parent ~594 dam high aloft centered over the
Western Atlantic on Monday morning. Light south to southwesterly
low-level flow will be keeping a juicy air mass over the Ohio
Valley. The first of two notable shortwaves will be situated over
the upper Great Lakes at that time while the second shortwave will
be dropping into northern Alberta. A nearly stationary frontal
boundary will be draped from Northern New England to an area of
~1012 mb low pressure centered over Michigan. A cold front will
trail to the SW into the Central Plains, in the wake of the low
pressure.

On Monday, forcing will be very weak, which should preclude
widespread convective coverage. However, soundings show PWATs
around 1.9 inches along with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of skinny CAPE and
deep warm layer -- all of which will continue to support
torrential rainfall rates. Weak flow will cause storms to move
very slowly or be nearly stationary. Thus isolated instances of
flash flooding will be a concern wherever robust storms develop.
Similar to Sunday, expect most convection to occur during the
afternoon and evening, coincident with peak heating and
destabilization.

On Tuesday, scattered convection is expected to develop once
again during the afternoon and evening hours but will likely
become more widespread over northern counties as the cold front
drops into the Ohio Valley later in the day. PWATs will climb
further, nearing/exceeding 2 inches while other environmental
parameters remain similar to Monday. This will lead to a continued
threat for at least isolated instances of flash flooding.

The front now appears to make a slow southward push into the
Commonwealth on Wednesday where it will interact with the
aforementioned juicy environment. The mean tropospheric flow
increases a bit but also turns nearly unidirectional, parallel to
the boundary. The models continue to waffle with how quickly the
boundary plods through. Regardless, this is not a good setup, as
it will favor persistent training of storms with torrential
rainfall rates on top of very moist soils. Given the
aforementioned concerns, WPC had enough confidence to raise a Day
5 Slight across Eastern Kentucky and adjacent portions of the
Appalachians. A secondary front should follow late in the week as
the next shortwave amplifies over the Northeast CONUS, but the
system will have much less moisture to work with.

Sensible Weather:
Monday and Tuesday will remain partly sunny, muggy and warm with
temperatures near normal. Anticipate scattered storms on Monday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening, and again on Tuesday.
There will be a threat for scattered to numerous storms each
afternoon. More widespread cloud cover and rainfall with the slow-
moving cold front should keep daytime temperatures cooler on
Wednesday. Lingering showers should largely come to an end on
Thursday, but some spotty shower or storm activity cannot be ruled
out with the secondary front toward the end of the forecast
period. Temperatures are expected to peak in the middle 80s on
Monday and Tuesday, then range within a couple of degrees of 80
for the rest of the week. Nighttime lows are forecast to range in
the mid 60s to around 70 through Wednesday night. The somewhat
drier air mass behind the front will allow lows to settle back in
the mid 50s to near 60 Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be around the
area into the evening with brief flight restrictions during
periods of heavy rain. Away from the storms, winds will be
southwest at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon and into the evening
becoming light and variable late into Sunday morning. Again some
patchy fog is possible overnight, especially in areas that see
heavy rain into this evening. Any storms on Sunday should be more
widely scattered so have left them out of the TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMF/GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-072330-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
425 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to be around the area through early
tonight with times of heavy rainfall. This may result in flash
flooding, especially if multiple storms pass over the same area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There will be a persistent threat of thunderstorms at times
through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be slow moving and could
bring locally heavy rainfall, leading to potential high water
issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any occurrences of flooding
through the week.

GREIF/GEERTSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
116 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S HAZEL PATCH         37.23N 84.20W
08/06/2022                   LAUREL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER REPORTED ON THE ROAD ON HAZEL
            PATCH ROAD AT HAZEL PATCH CREEK NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION WITH KY-25. TIME OF THE REPORT
            GIVEN BY THE 911 DISPATCH.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MCKEE                   37.43N 84.00W
08/06/2022                   JACKSON            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODING AND HIGH WATER
            THROUGHOUT THE MCKEE AREA.

&&

JL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

KYZ079-083-084-061845-
McCreary KY-Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
150 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Wayne,
southeastern Pulaski and McCreary Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 149 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ritner, or 9 miles northwest of Whitley City, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wiborg and Quinton around 205 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Parkers Lake,
Greenwood, Beulah Heights, Tateville, Alpine, Sloans Valley and
Honeybee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8457 3661 8482 3688 8489 3704 8442
      3685 8432 3684 8434 3683 8432 3681 8436
      3681 8435 3678 8435 3675 8432 3668 8431
      3660 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 231DEG 11KT 3683 8458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW CLAY CITY         37.85N 83.93W
08/06/2022                   POWELL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER REPORTED OVER THE ROAD ON ADAMS
            RIDGE ROAD. TIME OF THE REPORT GIVEN BY THE
            911 DISPATCH.

&&

JL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
346 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

KYZ086-087-062015-
Knox KY-Bell KY-
346 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bell and
east central Knox Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pineville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ponza around 350 PM EDT.
  Straight Creek and Calvin around 355 PM EDT.
  Cary and Varilla around 400 PM EDT.
  Arjay, Blanche, Miracle and Oaks around 405 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kettle Island,
Rella, Callaway, Blackmont, Balkan and Black Snake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3672 8382 3692 8363 3677 8349 3674 8350
      3666 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 230DEG 13KT 3675 8370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLOOD            1 SSW CLAY CITY         37.85N 83.93W
08/06/2022                   POWELL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1
            SSW CLAY CITY. HIGH WATER REPORTED OVER THE
            ROAD ON ADAMS RIDGE ROAD. TIME OF THE REPORT
            GIVEN BY THE 911 DISPATCH.

&&

JL