Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022

Hourly temperatures seem pretty much on track for the most part.
Saw no need to alter overnight mins as a result. Thunder has been
persistent across the far south. But trends have finally begun to
take the bulk of activity to our south. However, while thunder has
been removed from the forecast, can not rule out a renegade
thunderstorm down around the Middlesboro area for about another
hour. Updated the forecast package to remove thunder and freshen
up wording. Also beefed up fog through the remainder of the night
based on trends.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022

Surface cold front is all but through eastern Kentucky. There are
still a few thunderstorms right along the Kentucky & Tennessee
state line. The threat of thunder will not completely go away
until the surface front is completely out of the area. Currently
satellite imaging indicates cloud tops are still cooling on the
storm down around Monticello. Thus maintained a small chance for
another hour or so. These storms are also putting out some decent
rainfall. But all of this will wane over the next couple of hours.
Will likely do another update in an hour or so to remove thunder.
Eventually northeast flow will begin to develop across the area
sometime through the overnight period. This will tend to keep
clouds in place across eastern Kentucky. With recent rainfall will
need to watch for the potential of some locally dense fog later
during the overnight period as post frontal subsidence begins to
develop above the boundary layer late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 519 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022

A frontal boundary (precip enhanced) is bisecting the forecast
area east/west late this afternoon. Temperatures north of the
boundary are only around 70, while to the south it's around 80. A
line of showers/thunderstorms is developing near the boundary,
while elevated showers persist to the north, but they are slowly
waning.

The nearest term question/uncertainty is how fast the northern
showers dissipate, and the extent to which southern convection
develops. Guidance suggests the northern precip will taper off
fairly quickly early this evening. However, this will need to be
watched, and if it happens more slowly, the POP there may need to
be extended. Likewise, if the southern convection fills in well,
adjustments may also be needed there.

Regardless of the evolution, the larger trend will be for the
activity to drop southward during the evening, and eventually
exit/dissipate southward out of the forecast area. The next
concern then becomes the extent of clearing and the potential for
fog and/or stratus during the night. The greatest potential for
clearing overnight will be in our northwestern counties. Drier air
will try to work in behind the front in our northern counties, but
with weak flow it may have trouble displacing our surface air
mass. Confidence is low in how it all plays out.

An ill defined and decaying residual boundary will still be in
the area Sunday, and forecast soundings suggest there could be
enough moisture left in our southeast counties for some
showers/thunderstorms to pop up with diurnal destabilization. If
it were to happen, they should quickly die out with loss of
heating in the evening. Surface ridging then takes over under weak
northerly flow aloft to give fair weather with valley fog during
the night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022

The period will begin under the influence of high pressure,
resulting in highs near seasonal norms. Starting in the upper
levels, a large ridge dome resides across the Southwest, expanding
into the Ohio River Valley and portions of the Mid Atlantic. To our
north, a series of shortwave troughs are present, sitting both
across the USA/Canadian border and another in Northeastern Quebec.
At the surface, high pressure will traverse east through Monday,
allowing for winds to shift out of the south/southwest by the
afternoon. A surface low, associated with the aforementioned trough,
will be in place just north of the Great Lakes, with a cold front
draped southwest across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central
Plains. Given the return flow off the high, PWATs will increase to
around 1.5" Tuesday afternoon. This will allow for a few isolated to
scattered showers/storms to develop for the afternoon and into the
night. Highs will also notably jump up a few degrees compared to
Monday. As the surface low and associated frontal boundary slowly
meander east, shower and storm chances increase into the day
Wednesday. The GFS is certainly the most bullish with QPF and even
a bit quicker in timing, and this is reflected in ensemble guidance
as well. Given the lack of agreement here and weak forcing overall,
have veered closer to the blend in terms of shower/storm potential,
as well as the slower progression of the boundary.

As the front progresses east across the Appalachians into Thursday
morning, a few residual showers and storms will be possible through
the day. These will primarily stay contained to the southeast, along
the Virginias. Upper level heights will then increase through
Friday, with high pressure returning across the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley. Cooler and drier air upon northerly flow will end the
period Friday and into the early weekend.

Overall, the extended will feature temperatures much closer to
seasonal norms. Highs will be their warmest Tuesday, in the upper
80s and low 90s, before cooling into the low and mid 80s Tuesday and
mid 80s through the end of the work week (post front). Lows will
follow a similar curve, in the mid to upper 60s through Tuesday
night, before dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s through the
remainder of the period. Overall, the second half of the extended
will be a refreshing feel, as highs settle near mid June norms and
dew points range in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022

UPDATE...

Guidance has not been useful tonight and has not handled the
evolution of conditions very well this evening. CIGS have dropped
rapidly to near airport minimums in most cases. Overall, this has
become a low confidence forecast as flight conditions have been
generally deteriorated well below guidance. Updated TAFs to
reflect the formation of lower CIGS and VSBYS. However, KLOZ and
KSME are seeing some stronger winds from the northeast, which
could help with flight conditions, possibly tending to keep VSBYS
up while CIGS drop.

A surface cold front is all but through eastern Kentucky. There
are still a few thunderstorms right along the Kentucky & Tennessee
state line just ahead of the frontal boundary. While the threat
of thunder has ended at our terminals, the threat of thunder will
not be totally gone from the area until the surface front is south
of the Kentucky state line. Eventually northeast flow will begin
to develop across the area...during the overnight, or late
tonight. This will tend to build lower CIGS back in place across
our terminals. Will also need to watch for the potential of some
locally dense fog as post frontal subsidence begins to develop
above the boundary layer late tonight. Wind will be light and out
of the northeast Sunday, with a gradual improvement in CIGS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...BB
AVIATION...RAY

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible in some locations Sunday afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms are also possible at times Tuesday through
Thursday with the passage of a slow moving cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

HAL/BB/RAY