Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 504 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022

We are in the midst of active wx attributed to a mature, largely
stacked low pressure system over the mid Mississippi Valley late
today. Our low level flow pulled into the system is generally out
of the south to southeast. Although this is supplying a mild and
moist air mass, there is a downslope component to the flow,
especially affecting southeast KY by cutting into moisture just a
bit. However, the western and northern portions of the area are
more unstable, with CAPE topping 1000 J/KG. In addition, the KJKL
88D shows some speed and directional shear in the lower levels.
With the upper level trough/low approaching and the system's
surface cold front approaching, showers and thunderstorms have
broken out. With all that said warnings are already being issued,
and the threat of svr wx will continue early this evening.

A dry slot wrapping around the system will bring a decline in
significant precip from west to east between about 8 PM and 3 AM.
The threat of svr wx will also fade this evening as instability
wanes. With the continued approach of the upper low and the
surface cold front overnight, more showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop over central KY and head east toward our area
around dawn, but will be more of a garden variety. This
progresses east across the forecast area during the morning. A
lesser amount of precip will linger through the afternoon and into
the night underneath the upper low, but will depart along with
the low by dawn Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022

Things will quickly be on the downswing side of things as an upper
level trough and associated surface low pivot east through the Mid
Atlantic and off the East Coast. Broad ridging, once across the
South-Central CONUS, will now meander east, expanding across the
Southeast and into the Ohio River Valley. As it does so, any
lingering showers/sprinkles bordering the Virginias will diminish
through the morning Saturday. From this point and onward, high
pressure will remain in control, bringing plentiful sunshine and
warming temperatures through mid week. Guidance does hint at the
opportunity for some shower/storm chances to return the second
half of the work week, but there is large spread and uncertainty
from run to run. The ECMWF suggests the blocking pattern to
remain, while the GFS implies shortwaves rounding the flow,
breaking down the ridge, and bring the return of showers later
Wednesday and into Thursday ahead of an advancing cold front.
Given the progressive bias of the GFS and decent agreement between
the ECMWF and Canadian, as well as some help from cluster
analysis, did dial PoPs back to both arrive a bit later Wednesday
(late Wednesday night) and lower chances to isolated and
scattered.

Temperatures through the period will trend warmer throughout. Highs
will start in the low to upper 70s Saturday, before warming each day
thereafter. NAEFS, EFI, and other ensembles alike continue to
provide a weak signal for anomalously warm highs Tuesday and
Wednesday, but confidence continues to remain low. As such, did
knock down high temperatures a few degrees from the blend to fit
more in line with current thinking, but near to record setting
values can't be ruled out. Overall, Memorial Day will feature highs
in the mid and upper 80s, warming to the upper 80s and lower 90s by
Wednesday. Lows will generally follow a similar curve, with ridge
valley splits likely most nights. Upper 40s to mid 50s are forecast
Saturday night, before warming to the upper 50s and mid 60s
overnight Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022

Conditions were a mix of VFR and MVFR due primarily due to
ceilings, and a few showers were present. Outside of precip,
largely VFR conditions are expected through the night, but some
MVFR ceilings are possible, especially this afternoon north and
west of KJKL. With that said, the showers and thunderstorms will
be on the increase this afternoon, with most places expecting a
round to occur early this evening, but timing is still somewhat
uncertain. The heavier showers/storms will bring temporary IFR
conditions and gusty winds. The most significant convection is
expected to be before about 03Z. Another increase in showers is
forecast from west to east from around dawn Friday into the day,
along with a greater threat of MVFR ceilings.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...BB
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
339 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271045-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
339 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Some of the storms
may contain damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated
tornado can't be ruled out. Heavy rainfall may lead to isolated
flash flooding, especially if multiple storms pass over the same
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report wind damage or hail today and
tonight.

CMF/HAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

KYZ086-087-116-117-262100-
Clay KY-Knox KY-Bell KY-Leslie KY-
437 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bell, eastern Knox,
southwestern Leslie and southeastern Clay Counties through 500 PM
EDT...

At 437 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Noetown, or near Middlesboro, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Meldrum and Wheeler around 440 PM EDT.
  Clear Creek Springs, Ingram, Wasioto, East Pineville, Ferndale,
  Trosper, Ponza, Kayjay and Calvin around 445 PM EDT.
  Pineville, Fourmile, Wallsend, Cary, Straight Creek, Arjay, Flat
  Lick, Old Flat Lick, Himyar and Kettle Island around 450 PM EDT.
  Walker, Rella, Blanche, Dewitt, Barnyard and Baughman around 455
  PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Mills, Erose,
Field, Scalf, Salt Gum, Hammond, Beverly, Gardner and Sandy Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8393 3661 8393 3667 8390 3668 8388
      3670 8389 3703 8376 3696 8345 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 202DEG 49KT 3663 8380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BB