Tornado Warning 25, NWS Jacksonville, FL

305 
WWUS52 KJAX 130129
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
929 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

GAC003-069-130145-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-221013T0145Z/
Coffee GA-Atkinson GA-
929 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN ATKINSON COUNTIES...
    
At 929 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Willacoochee, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Coffee and northwestern Atkinson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3145 8288 3139 8285 3131 8306 3133 8306
      3135 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 225DEG 14KT 3134 8303 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

ENYEDI

073 
WWUS52 KJAX 130138
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
938 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

GAC003-069-130147-
/O.EXP.KJAX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-221013T0145Z/
Coffee GA-Atkinson GA-
938 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN
ATKINSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM EDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  

LAT...LON 3145 8288 3139 8285 3131 8306 3133 8306
      3135 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 231DEG 12KT 3133 8298 

$$

ENYEDI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
802 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Surface high pressure will move away to the northeast through
Tonight as a cold front moves southeast toward area. At 500mb a
trough will be moving into the area overnight, with waves moving
east through this pattern.

For this afternoon and evening, surface onshore flow pattern due
to the high to the northeast will continue, with weak surface
troughing in the flow leading to convergence and showers.

As the upper trough approaches, it will enhance surface based
instability leading to the potential for a round of strong storms
that could last through the evening. The shower and thunderstorm
chances will then continue through the night as the upper wave
pivots through.

Due to expected cloud cover, lows are forecast to remain above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

The upper trough will pivot to the east during the day Thursday
taking the best support for convection with it. The surface cold
front will pass through Thursday night, but much of the moisture and
instability will be to the east before its passage. So, expecting
convection to continue through the morning hours Thursday, with this
activity trailing off during the afternoon hours, giving way to a
dry night for Thursday night.

High pressure will build from the west Friday, then along the US
east coast over the weekend. The region will be in an upper trough
Friday and Saturday. So, while dry conditions are expected it
will likely not be completely clear, as high cloudiness will pass
through the base of the upper trough.

Temperatures will trend above normal for Thursday, then below for
Thursday night through Saturday night, with a return to seasonal
levels for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

High pressure will push off to the southeast Sunday night as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This front will slowly move
southeast across the area Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is somewhat
limited with this frontal passage, but enough to warrant including
precipitation chances with it. High pressure to build from the
northwest following the front for Wednesday.

After a below normal night Sunday night, highs will recover into the
low to mid 80s on Monday. A cool down is then expected following the
front with highs on Wednesday ranging from around 70 over SE GA
to the low to mid 70s over NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

The 00Z TAF period will begin with prevailing VFR skies with
scattered cloud ceilings around 2.5 kft and multi layered clouds
aloft and light easterly to southeast winds around 5 knots or less.
Overnight, winds will become light and variable while a disturbance
ahead of a cold front over the deep south will move through the
area from the west overnight and bring increasing chances for
showers across the terminals late tonight by 04Z and have tempo
groups for MVFR ceilings and visibilities from heavier showers
mainly between 05-09Z with TSRA marked for KSSI during the same
time frame with variable elevated winds and gusts possible up to
20 knots. This wave of showers and storms should move off the
coast with some low end MVFR ceilings overcast around 1.0-1.5 kft
as the front remains west of the TAF sites until late Thursday
with winds shifting to the west 5-10 knots with some additional
showers possible through 21Z/22Z Thursday afternoon as the front
and drier air finally moves through the teminals with KSGJ the
last TAF site to be cleared of the front before the end of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

High pressure will continue to move further away to the northeast
Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front
will move southeast across the area Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will build from the west northwest Friday. High
pressure will extend down the east coast of the US over the weekend.
This high will move off to the east Monday, as another front
approaches from the northwest. The cold front will move southeast
across the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will build
from the northwest next Wednesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Today, Low Thursday
              NE FL High Today, Moderate Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  82  56  80 /  80  30   0   0
SSI  71  81  62  77 /  80  40  10   0
JAX  71  84  62  80 /  70  60  10   0
SGJ  73  84  65  78 /  60  60  20  10
GNV  71  83  61  82 /  60  60  10   0
OCF  71  83  63  83 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ033-038-
     132-325.

     High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ137.

GA...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

FLZ140-240-122015-
Central Marion FL-Eastern Marion FL-
325 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Marion
County through 415 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Emeralda, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds around 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Moss Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 8195 2916 8168 2896 8170 2896 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 164DEG 8KT 2897 8179

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
909 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

GAZ132-149-130200-
Atkinson GA-Coffee GA-
909 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Coffee
and western Atkinson Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 907 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Willacoochee, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pearson and Willacoochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8298 3143 8283 3128 8281 3121 8305
      3123 8305 3128 8303 3128 8305 3130 8305
      3131 8306 3133 8306 3134 8307 3136 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 219DEG 15KT 3129 8309

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KB