Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
931 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.UPDATE...

Storm developments will continue through tonight with storms
building along sea breeze and outflow boundaries past midnight.
Primary threat from slow-moving storms is torrential rainfall
which can lead to instances of localized flooding. Convection
will eventually become diminished overnight with convection
returning on Wednesday afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will
be in the mid 70s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [806 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Today, ridging in the Gulf of Mexico is brining a weak NW steering
flow, allowing both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to push
their ways inland. The boundaries are expected to collide and
force scattered convection inland. Gusty winds and localized
temporary flooding from slow moving storms are possible with
embedded strong thunderstorms near I-75 and US-301. Convection
ahead of the sea breeze boundaries is possible due to above
average PWATs (~2 inches) and strong diurnal heating. Convection
will linger past sunset until about midnight due to outflow
interactions keeping storms fueled.

Low temperatures will be normal, mid 70s inland and a few degrees
warmer on the coast. Areas receiving  storm coverage will feel a
temperature drop earlier in the evening.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

High pressure ridging to our southeast is forecasted to shift
northward and be to our east Wednesday, and to our northeast
Thursday. On Wednesday with  moisture and low level forcing,
precipitation chances are high, especially inland NE FL. Again,
with any strong storms forming the primary risks will be gusty
winds and slow moving downpours.

Wednesday night into Thursday a stronger steering flow from the
south will bring drier air with below average PWATs of about 1.5
inches, lowering diurnal convection potential. Precipitation
chances will be below normal on the coast, but inland there will
still be decent chances of convection in the afternoon and
evening.

The temperature trend will continue this week with highs in the
mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s on the coast.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Normal diurnal summertime convection is expected during this
period. Southeast flow will continue Friday and PWATs will be
steady around 2 inches all weekend. With easterly flow Saturday
and Sunday, the area with the highest potential for strong
afternoon storms will be inland NE FL due to a stronger Atlantic
sea breeze forming.

Temperatures will be normal, highs in the low 90s inland and
upper 80s on the coast. Lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s
on the coast.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

Late evening showers and storms may develop later this evening over
forecast sites with conditions becoming predominantly VFR
overnight with reduced visibility possible in the early morning
hours at VQQ. Convection expected to return on Wednesday afternoon
with southerly winds building upwards to about 10-15 knots for
coastal sites.

.MARINE...

High pressure is currently to our southeast, shifting north
during this week, expected to be to the northeast by Thursday through the
weekend. The east coast sea breeze will move inland each afternoon and
merge with the Gulf coast sea breeze helping form thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  95  72  93  72 /  30  60  30  40  10
SSI  78  90  77  88  78 /  30  30  20  20  10
JAX  75  92  74  91  73 /  50  40  20  20  10
SGJ  75  89  74  89  75 /  40  40  20  20  10
GNV  73  92  72  93  72 /  40  70  30  40  10
OCF  73  92  73  93  73 /  60  70  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1031 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

FLZ038-138-030300-
Coastal Flagler FL-Inland Flagler FL-
1031 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Flagler
County through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1030 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palm Coast, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell and Beverly Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2946 8110 2946 8112 2943 8110 2942 8114
      2941 8115 2935 8115 2931 8125 2958 8130
      2962 8113 2952 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 340DEG 21KT 2956 8118

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1032 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

FLZ137-140-237-240-030300-
Central Marion FL-Eastern Putnam FL-Western Putnam FL-
Eastern Marion FL-
1032 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Marion
and central Putnam Counties through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1032 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Lake Delancy, or 7 miles west of Pomona Park,
moving southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palatka, Pomona Park, Salt Springs, East Palatka, Lake Delancy,
Fruitland, San Mateo, Satsuma, Welaka and Hog Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2934 8197 2958 8192 2969 8155 2947 8155
      2933 8163 2932 8168 2930 8166 2923 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 027DEG 15KT 2948 8172

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SHASHY