Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
851 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

.UPDATE...

1008 mb area of low pressure was taking shape to the west
northwest of the area, with an outflow boundary/pseudo warm front
to the north of the area. Convection was intensifying to the west
of the area as an upper level trough was pivoting eastward and
becoming negatively tilted across the Deep South. Strong to severe
storms are expected to move into southeast Georgia over the next
couple hours, with the entire area of convection accelerating
overnight to the east. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM,
and this will be extended until midnight, with a new watch
possibly issued afterwards. It was relatively stable across the
eastern half of the area, and the squall line is forecast to
weaken as it moves towards the coast late tonight. Strong pressure
falls behind the front, and gusty winds are expected overnight
into Monday morning across the area. Gusts up to 50 mph are
possible for portions of southeast Georgia behind the front
overnight.

Much colder air will move into the area late tonight, with
temperatures dropping 25-40 degrees. Temperatures may continue
dropping beyond sunrise across much of the area due to the slower
advance of the front. So, did bump up lows a few degrees due to
the later arrival of the cold air.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [638 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the surface and aloft east of the the Bahamas is
retreating eastward into the Atlantic as a potent shortwave trough
is becoming neutrally tilted over the lower MS Valley with a surface
low developing in the diffluent region immediately downstream of this
feature over the tri-state area of extreme SE AL, SW GA, and into
the western FL Panhandle along a cold front that extends from the
Carolina coast south and west to near Mobile, AL. Ongoing strong
to severe thunderstorms are breaking out Near and a little east of
the surface low currently just west of our interior SE GA
counties as unbridled sunshine in the warm SW flow has
destabilized the atmosphere ahead of the cold front with about
1,500-2,000 J/kg of CAPE over southern GA and northern FL areas
west of I-75. The Storm Prediction Center has therefore issued a
tornado watch in effect until 10 PM for our inland SE GA counties
including Waycross and Alma.

Meanwhile, much of our area remains dry with mostly sunny skies and
breezy SW winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph at times which
has allowed high temps to reach the low to mid 80s with Jacksonville
International breaking a daily record high at with a value of 84
degrees this afternoon, eclipsing the previous record of 82 degrees
from 2017. Winds will remain breezy through sunset with gusts
increasing to 40 mph and a Wind advisory will go into effect at
7PM for the entire area into Monday afternoon.

Tonight, the potent shortwave will become negatively tilted and
dig east across the deep south driving the strong cold front east
with strong to severe T'storms consolidating into a squall line of
embedded isolated severe T'storms that will sweep from western
inland SE GA and the Suwannee valley east-southeast through the
I-10 and I-75 corridors to the coast and not reaching Jacksonville
until after midnight. Still expecting a very strong low level jet
of 50-60 knots and CAPE of at least 500 J/kg to bring damaging
winds up to 50-70 mph across SE GA to the I-10 corridor of NE FL
tonight. Not expecting heavy rainfall as the system moves quickly
offshore by sunrise with a half inch of rain generally north and
west of Waycross with pockets of locally heavier amounts possible.
Windy conditions will persist overnight with gusts to 40 mph
while temperatures will fall quickly into the 40s and 50s behind
the storms as the cold front passes through and winds chills will
dip into the 30s over SE GA and west of I-75 over NE FL.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday will start breezy until the early afternoon as strong high
pressure builds in from the WNW with a tight pressure gradient
keeping NW winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph until
the afternoon. A backdoor cold front will drop southward over the
coastal waters as the strengthening surface low departs NE along
the mid Atlantic coast with winds becoming northerly by the late
afternoon hours. Skies will be clearing during the late morning
and temperatures will be below normal with highs remaining in the
50s for most areas save for low 60s over north central FL.

High pressure will move north of the region on Tuesday with coastal
showers and clouds moving onshore along the NE FL coast south of St.
Augustine as an inverted troughing forms in the NE onshore flow. Winds
will become more relaxed through the day with dry conditions
inland under partly cloudy skies and near to slightly below normal
highs in the upper 50s north of Waycross over SE GA, low 60s
south of Waycross to the I-10 corridor, and mid to upper 60s south
of I-10 over NE FL and the NE FL coast.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Strong high pressure will shift well NE of the region midweek into
the end of the week with a warming trend expected as onshore low
level SE flow on Wednesday becomes southwesterly ahead of the
next cold front that will move in from the NW Thursday night into
Friday bringing a chance of showers Thursday evening overnight
into Friday. A colder airmass will filter in behind the front on
Friday as high pressure builds from the NW and then north of the
region on Saturday, then shifts ENE of the region over the
Atlantic with dry weather through the weekend expected.

Temperatures will begin near normal Wednesday and Thursday, then
fall below normal Friday into Saturday and rise above normal on
Sunday.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

South to southwest winds 10-15 knots will increase overnight as a
strong cold front approaches the area. Broken squall line was
developing to the west of the area early this evening, and this
will move towards the TAF sites around 06Z while weakening.
Restrictions are expected as the line of storms moves across the
area. Storms will exit the area by the early morning with breezy
westerly winds behind the front into Monday morning. Winds will
then become west northwest to northwest by mid morning Monday with
skies clearing, and then winds begin to diminish near the end of
the TAF period under sunny/clear skies.

.MARINE...

Low pressure will develop over central Georgia this evening
along a strong cold front that will advance eastward over the
southeast states. This low will rapidly strengthen as it moves
northeastward across the Carolina coastal plain overnight with a
strong cold front sweeping across our local waters after midnight,
accompanied by a squall line of strong to isolated severe storms.
Southwesterly winds will strengthen early this evening in advance
of this front and squall line, followed by winds shifting to
westerly overnight behind the front, with A Gale Warning in effect
for all waters with frequent Gale Force wind gusts expected
overnight through Monday morning over the area waters with
elevated seas of 6 to 9 feet offshore and 4 o 6 feet nearshore.
Strong high pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley in
the wake of this front on Monday will move northeastward towards
the Carolinas on Tuesday, resulting in winds quickly shifting to
northerly by late Monday and then northeasterly by sunrise on
Tuesday. Winds and seas will diminish by Tuesday evening as this
high pressure center quickly weakens.

Rip Currents: Breezy offshore winds and low wave heights will keep
a low risk in place through Monday morning. Strong northwesterly
winds on Monday morning will shift to northerly by the afternoon
hours at the northeast FL beaches, resulting in a developing
moderate risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  46  54  33  58  41 /  80   0   0   0   0
SSI  50  57  44  59  51 /  70   0   0   0  10
JAX  51  58  42  63  50 /  60   0   0  10  10
SGJ  54  60  47  65  55 /  40   0  10  10  10
GNV  52  59  41  66  49 /  50   0   0   0   0
OCF  53  61  41  69  50 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until noon EST Monday for Baker-Bradford-Central
     Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal
     St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-Eastern Marion-
     Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Flagler-Inland
     Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-South Central
     Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-Western
     Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-Western
     Putnam.

GA...Wind Advisory until noon EST Monday for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-
     Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-
     Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

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