Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
402 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Latest radar imagery (from KVAX) at 3:30 PM indicated flourishing
convection over central Florida, moving northward toward the
local area. An influx of tropically-sourced moisture will help
fuel this convection as it continues northward into north-central
FL over the next hour. Observed RAOB from Miami this morning
measured PWATs near 2 inches. That moisture has made its way into
north-central FL, per GOES derived PWATs, which is approaching 1.9
inches across Marion County. This high-grade moisture will lead
to heavy rainfall rates from convection that transpires this
afternoon and evening, which may lead to localized flooding
especially in urban areas.

Thunderstorm coverage is likely to form along a cold pool, that
is beginning to organize with the convection to the south, and
move northward into the area through the late afternoon. Strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
I-95 corridor around 6 PM as the convective-driven cold pool
interacts with the Atlantic sea breeze. Instability will increase
the cold pool/moisture surges into the area; CAPE around 3000 j/kg
are likely to develop. This degree of instability will support
the risk of small to severe hail. Additionally, the incoming
moisture will undercut drier air aloft which lead to a window of
microburst potential.

There will be added support for continue convection through the
late afternoon and into the late night hours as a subtle shortwave
lifts northeastward over the area. That said, expect coverage and
intensity of convection to diminish with the loss heating late
this evening. There could be a brief period of little shower
coverage late tonight before activity redevelops around or just
before sunrise Saturday.

With the cloud cover and influx of moisture, lows tonight will be
above normal upper 60s and lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High-grade moisture (for late May) will be established over the
entire region, fueling scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. A series of impulses will move
across the area on southwesterly flow resulting broader lift
during afternoons, which will allow a few stronger or possibly
severe pulse convection along the sea breeze. Strong instability
will be support severe hail potential, strong outflow winds, and
areas of heavy rainfall which may lead to isolated urban flooding.
SPC has enhanced the threat of severe weather to "Marginal"
(level 1 of 5) on Saturday citing the hail and wind potential.

The first of two impulses will move across during the morning and
early afternoon on Saturday, encouraging an early start to the
convection. An early start to thunderstorms activity may lead to a
faster cessation during the evening as the airmass becomes turned
over. Southwesterly flow will remain in place on Sunday but a
shortwave ridge aloft will add enough subsidence to limit airmass
convection away from the sea breeze. However, a fast-moving
shortwave is progged to lift over the area during the late
afternoon/early evening on Sunday. This will add forcing and lead
to another potential round of strong to severe storms Sunday
evening as the Gulf sea breeze collides with the pinned Atlantic
sea breeze.

Temperatures will be close to normal through the weekend but the
forecast confidence is low due to the potential cooling effects of
convection and cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Medium-range guidance is consistent with a cold front stalling to
the northwest early next week with high pressure remain east.
Ridging aloft will try to build from the south Monday and
potentially overhead Tuesday. As this occurs, southwesterly flow
will strengthen ahead of a stronger shortwave organizing over the
Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday. Timing trends with the
associated front still differ at this point but a stronger frontal
passage is becoming more likely late next week and into the
weekend. We will be keeping our eyes on this as it could bring a
period of severe weather during the Memorial Day Holiday weekend.
Before the front arrives, a summery pattern featuring diurnal
thunderstorms will continue through the week amid anomalously
moist airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Numerous to widespread showers and storms will develop in the mid
to late afternoon hours and continue into the overnight hours.
Showers/storms are expected to quickly redevelop around sunrise on
Saturday and impact the TAF sites once again. South to
southwesterly winds around 10 knots will become southeasterly at
along the east coast as the east coast sea breeze tries to push
inland. Light south to southwest winds are expected overnight, and
south to southwest winds around 10 knots are expected on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain east of the area into early next week
with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible each day. A cold
front will stall well to the northwest but a tightening gradient
will lead to increased (Exercise Caution Level) southeasterly
winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Afternoon sea breeze off the Atlantic will lead to a
period of increased surf (2-3 ft) and Moderate Risk of Rip
Currents at all area beaches during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Incoming moisture will fuel Numerous to widespread thunderstorms
are this today and through the weekend. Strong storms will be
capable of gusty erratic outflow winds. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected. However, the combination of dry fuels
and increased lightning activity may lead to more ignitions. Lower
mixing heights due to cloud cover and rain will limit dispersion
over the weekend. Winds will favor a southerly direction with sea
breeze development expected each afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Due to the KJAX radar outage and potential severe weather this
evening, spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely
report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSJacksonville.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  68  88  67  89  67 /  60  60  30  60  30
SSI  73  83  73  86  73 /  40  60  30  50  30
JAX  71  84  70  89  70 /  80  80  30  40  20
SGJ  71  82  71  88  71 /  70  80  40  30  20
GNV  69  84  69  90  68 /  70  80  30  40  20
OCF  71  85  69  91  70 /  70  80  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
446 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

FLZ038-137-140-240-340-202130-
Central Marion FL-Western Marion FL-Inland Flagler FL-
Eastern Putnam FL-Eastern Marion FL-
446 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Flagler,
Marion and southeastern Putnam Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 446 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Beverly Hills to 7 miles
southwest of DeLeon Springs. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, pea size hail, and minor
         flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ocala, Rainbow Lakes Estates, Fort McCoy, Salt Springs, Juniper
Springs, Citra, Lynne, Sparr, Anthony and Ocklawaha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2901 8240 2905 8247 2904 8253 2921 8254
      2922 8240 2942 8240 2941 8115 2926 8115
      2926 8141 2940 8142 2933 8168 2928 8164
      2898 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 203DEG 25KT 2902 8238 2908 8146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DD

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