Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
550 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected this morning
as a cold front moves in from the northwest. The main threat of
stronger storms with gusty winds is generally from 11Z to 13Z for
SSI, and 12Z-15Z for northeast FL TAFS. Prevailing MVFR and IFR
conditions expected due to a batch of showers and embedded storms
out ahead of the front, but also with the line of showers and
embedded storms associated with the sfc cold front. Visibilities
expected to lower to at least 1SM in brief periods of heavy
rainfall. LLWS was included due to strong south-southwest winds
aloft that are close to 50-55 kt. After the front passes, VFR
conditions are expected and winds will shift to become
northwesterly and remain elevated and gusty through the day. Winds
will begin to decrease around 00Z and continuously decrease
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

Convection continues to expand and lift northward ahead of the
main cold front which is still northwest of the area from east
central GA to the FL panhandle. Episodes of embedded strong to
severe storms are possible through the morning hours today both
separate zone of convection over the area at this time and with a
pre-frontal squall line. Isolated tornadoes are possible and
tornado watches are in effect. The cold front will move rapidly
east and southeast today with the frontal convection along it with
threat of severe weather possible for all counties. The threat of
severe should end by about noon or 1pm as the front clears the
area from northwest to southeast. The heavy rainfall threat is now
lower due to the rapid movement of convection but will not end
until showers and storms move offshore.

High pressure will build from the west behind this front. The
gradient between the departing front and building high will result
in gusty winds behind the front as well. Wind advisory remains in
effect today to highlight the potential for gusts as high 35-45
mph both ahead of but mainly in the wake of the very strong cold
front. Initially strong pressure rises in the wake of the front
of 3 to 5 mb.

Warmest temps of the day will be this morning as the temps fall
in the wake of the cold front. Expecting temps to range from the
upper 40s to the upper 50s by 4 PM.

Tonight, records lows look possible (see climate below). Still
looking at a solid for a freeze tonight and have upgraded the
freeze warning for much of the area. In fact, a couple spots over
inland southeast GA may get to hard freeze but areal coverage is
too low to go with a hard freeze warning at this time based on
latest forecast. The other uncertainty is the far southeast zones
where winds and affects of warmer St Johns River basin may keep
things a bit more mixed so kept a freeze watch for this area for
the time being. However, this freeze watch area is also were we
could meet wind chill advy criteria as winds stay close to at
about 10-12 mph but let next shift take another look at this. In
any case, it will be quite cold Sunday morning as 5-10 mph winds
and the cold temps support wind chills in the 20s!

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

High pressure over the region on Sunday moves off to the northeast
into the western Atlantic by Monday. Onshore flow develops with
winds shifting to southeasterly by Monday afternoon. This will
usher in low-level moisture and begin a warming trend. Mostly dry
conditions prevail Sunday into Monday. However, a coastal trough
will develop on Monday which could bring a few sprinkles to the
coast. Highs will be below normal in the mid 50s/low 60s on Sunday
and upper 60s/low 70s on Monday. Clear skies, light winds and a
slight increase in low-level moisture will allow for patchy to
areas of frost to develop across inland SE GA and northern parts
of Suwannee Valley early Monday morning. Lows will be relatively
warmer than Sunday morning in the low 30s to upper 40s. Overnight
lows increase to the 50s Monday night.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...

Tuesday into Wednesday, a low pressure system moves through the
Gulf coast states, over the area and then lifts up the eastern
seaboard. This low will bring another round of rainfall which
could exacerbate any flooding leftover from the current system
moving through. A return of severe weather may also be possible
Tuesday into Wednesday with SPC placing SE GA and NE FL in a
Slight risk for severe storms. Uncertainty lies on whether our
area can recover quickly enough to support severe weather due to
the recency of the arctic airmass that was over the region. High
pressure will build from the west Wednesday night through
Thursday. Another system approaches the area from the northwest on
Friday to reintroduce low-end rain chances. Temperatures warm to
above normal through the week.

.MARINE...

A strong cold front is marching eastwards toward the coastal waters
early this morning and will pass through area waters between 8 AM
and 1 PM. Windy southerly wind will shift to northwest after frontal
passage with gale conditions expected. A line of strong to severe
storms will be possible with this frontal boundary. An isolated
tornado is possible embedded in the line. Strong high pressure
will build from the northwest late today, then toward the north
tonight, and northeast on Sunday. As the high pressure weakens and
moves away form the area Sunday night and into Monday, a coastal
trough is likely to form and produce some shower activity. Another
area of low pressure will approach from the west early Tuesday,
and move through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday,
providing for unsettled weather.

Rip Currents:
Moderate risk of rip currents today and low to moderate risk
going into Sunday.

.HYDROLOGY...

Additional rainfall amounts near the 1-2 inch range are forecast
which will continue to support some threat of flooding rainfall.
The main threat of heaviest rainfall amounts is shifted a bit northward
from Live Oak to Charlton county. Current flood watch remains in
effect but main threat looks to be Suwannee Valley area, including
Live Oak, and Lake City. Locally rainfall and flooding still
remains possible elsewhere over parts of southeast GA, and in
other locations with poor drainage or in urban areas through this
morning.

Water level rises on the Sante Fe River prompted river flood
warnings at Worthington Springs and Oleno State Park. These levels
peak solidly in minor flood stage in the next 2-3 days. Additional
rises on other rivers but for the time being they go to action
stage. Please monitor for additional updates and possible other
river flood warnings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  62  25  54  34  66 /  40   0   0   0   0
SSI  69  31  52  44  65 /  80   0   0   0  10
JAX  71  30  55  42  67 / 100   0   0   0  10
SGJ  73  35  56  49  68 / 100   0   0  10  10
GNV  71  29  60  42  71 / 100   0   0   0  10
OCF  74  29  62  44  73 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST to 10 AM EDT Sunday for Baker-
     Bradford-Central Marion-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Alachua-
     Eastern Marion-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern
     Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-
     Western Putnam.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Baker-Bradford-
     Central Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-
     Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-Eastern
     Marion-Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Flagler-
     Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-South
     Central Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion-
     Western Putnam.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Bradford-
     Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-South
     Central Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Eastern Clay-Eastern Putnam-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-
     South Central Duval.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST to 10 AM EDT Sunday for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
     Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-
     Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-
     Wayne-Western Charlton.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-
     Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern
     Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western
     Charlton.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for Clinch-Echols-
     Southern Ware-Western Charlton.

AM...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from
     Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

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