Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
733 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

Complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving through
southeast GA and northeast FL, expected to arrive at the TAFs this
evening and a few hours past midnight. TEMPO groups are in place
for MVFR TSRA and gusty winds to about 25-35 kt with this activity.
Pending later radar trends, may need to go to IFR conditions as
the activity progress west to east at about 30 kt. MVFR ceilings
are then expected to develop at the northeast FL terminals following
the passage of thunderstorm activity after 08Z, with VFR clouds
redeveloping by 12Z-14Z. Sfc winds will continue breezy about
10-20 kt and gusty at times tonight, and then settling down to
closer to 8-12 kt late and becoming more west- southwest 07Z-12Z,
and then westerly by midday at 12-18 kt and gusting to near 30
kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [304 PM EDT]...

.Near Term...[through Tonight]...

A prefrontal trough has moved into the area from the west this
afternoon. Convection will continue to initiate on this trough,
as it encounters an unstable airmass in place across the area.
This activity will spread southeast across area through the
afternoon and evening.

The cold front will move inland counties around midnight.
Additional convection is expected to develop ahead of the front,
producing another round of showers and storms that will last
through the overnight hours. The potential will exist across the
area for strong to possibly severe storms this afternoon through
Tonight. The greatest chance for severe storms will be over inland
SE GA, as the loss of diurnal heating as the storms move further
inland will limit potential.

In addition to the potential for strong winds and hail, isolated
tornadoes possible this afternoon into early evening inland.

Lows Tonight will range from the mid 60s over inland SE GA, to the
lower 70s along the coast of NE FL.

.Short Term...[Saturday through Tuesday]...

A few showers will linger over southeastern counties into Saturday
morning. The parent low will be well to the north over VA and NC
Saturday, but a series of troughs will pivot around the back side of
the low and through the region during the day Saturday through the
night, and into Sunday morning. While these post frontal troughs are
expected to pass through dry, they will bring a little added cloud
coverage. Drier air will also advect into the region following the
front. While a warm and above normal day is still forecast for
Saturday, it will be noticeably less humid.

It will also be a gusty day Saturday, due to a deep mixed layer, and
an enhanced pressure gradient. Have increased forecasted winds, but
currently below advisory levels. Model soundings depict winds around
35 kts in upper end of the mixed layer, which could reach ground in
the afternoon in the form of gusts. So, timing of the expected
surface troughs will be important, as the addition of pressure
gradient could bump speeds up.  Therefore, wind gusts could reach
wind advisory levels during the late morning and afternoon. At this
time will hold off on the headline, to allow later shifts a better
look at trough timing, and how it corresponds to time of best
mixing.

Cooler and drier air will continue to filter southeast into the area
through Sunday, with high pressure building to the north Sunday
afternoon. Lows Saturday night in the 55 to 60 range will be
common away from the coast. Highs Sunday in the lower to middle
80s is expected.

The low will move off the mid Atlantic coast and stall Sunday. The
region will be influenced by the low to the northeast, and high to
the north through Tuesday. Models diverge in the handling of the
low, but in general drift it toward the south. This will result in
an enhanced onshore flow from the northeast Sunday night through
Tuesday. While the region is expected to be dry, clouds will
increase from the east. With the onshore flow Sunday night through
Tuesday, Temperatures will be coolest at the coast during the day,
and warmest at the coast at night. In general a 5 to 10 degree
temperature contrast between the coast and well inland expected.

Gusty winds can be expected at the coast Monday and Tuesday due to
the gradient between the high and low.

.Long Term...[Tuesday night through Friday]...

Long range models differ in exact handling of low over the western
Atlantic. In general high pressure is expected to remain to the
north this period, as the low moves its way south and southwest
toward the area. Models are consistent in weakening low as it
approaches, but differ on timing of it making to forecast area.
Expect the area to remain dry through Wednesday, with chances
increasing from the east northeast Thursday into Friday. Gusty
conditions will be expected, mainly at the coast.

Once again a range in temperatures from west to east is expected,
due to the onshore flow this period.

.Marine...

A cold front will move southeast across the region Tonight. A series
of troughs will then move southeast over area Saturday through
Sunday morning. High pressure will build to the north Sunday
afternoon. An area of low pressure will drift down the western
Atlantic through next week, with high pressure remaining to the
north. The area of low pressure is forecast to move into area waters
late in the week. The gradient between the high and the low will
result in an enhanced northeast flow next week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday
              NE FL Moderate through Saturday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  63  83  56  78  54 /  40   0   0   0   0
SSI  69  85  63  78  61 /  70  10   0   0   0
JAX  69  88  61  84  61 /  80  10   0   0   0
SGJ  72  89  64  83  65 /  50  20   0   0   0
GNV  70  87  60  86  60 /  80  20   0   0   0
OCF  70  86  64  87  61 /  70  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

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