Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
309 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered showers and isolated storms have developed this
afternoon over interior SE GA, and scattered to numerous showers
and storms are expected to develop south into NE FL as the sea
breezes continue to move inland this afternoon and evening.
Afternoon and evening convection today will be enhanced by an
upper level shortwave trough moving over the area, which could
result in some strong storms with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and
small hail. The sea breezes are expected to converge slightly
east of the I-75 corridor today, which is where the highest
precipitation chances will be. Some showers and storms may linger
into tonight, but convection is expected to taper off by midnight.
Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Wednesday for
inland NE FL and SE GA. Temperatures tonight will be mild with
lows in the middle and upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

High pressure will remain in place well offshore to the east
through Thursday, and sea breezes are expected to develop each
afternoon. On Wednesday, isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible along the sea breezes with the highest
precipitation chances expected in NE FL where the sea breezes will
converge along and east of I-75. Upper level ridging will build
over the area on Thursday and will limit convection, and a mostly
dry day is expected despite sea breeze development.

High temperatures will be warm Wednesday and hot on Thursday.
Wednesday highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s inland and
middle 80s along the coast, and Thursday highs will be in the
lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast. Low temperatures
will be mild both nights in the middle and upper 60s inland and
near 70 along the coast and St Johns River.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Winds will increase from the southwest on Friday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front is expected to push across
inland SE GA Friday night while slowing down, then slowly push
southeast across NE FL through Saturday and into Sunday morning.
Showers and storms will spread across the area ahead of an along
the front Friday night through Sunday. After the front pushes to
our south, drier air will filter into the region as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging builds along the US east coast.
Mostly dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s on
Friday ahead of the front, then decrease slightly after the front
passes. Highs are expected to remain in the 80s through the long
term period. Lows will be warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s
Friday night, then decrease slightly for the rest of the period.
Generally lows will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s
each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will be in place through the afternoon with
potential for showers and storms developing over inland areas in
the late afternoon and evening hours, being most impactful for GNV
and VQQ. Winds will become more mild overnight and into tomorrow.
Potential for patchy fog developments early Wednesday morning for
inland areas.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain well offshore to the east of the local
waters through Thursday. Sea breezes are expected each afternoon,
and could cause breezy southeasterly winds over the nearshore
waters. Winds will shift to southwesterly on Friday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will move slowly south across
the local waters Saturday into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the front through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Sea breezes are expected to form each afternoon through Thursday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along the sea breezes
this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Lighter transport winds on
Wednesday will result in low daytime dispersions. Hot and dry weather
expected Thursday, then southwesterly flow increases Friday ahead of
an approaching front that will impact the area Friday night into
Saturday. Patchy inland fog possible early Wednesday and Thursday
mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  63  90  65  92  66 /  50  20   0  10   0
SSI  69  84  71  87  71 /  10  10   0  10   0
JAX  66  88  68  91  68 /  20  20   0  10   0
SGJ  68  85  69  88  70 /  20  20   0  10   0
GNV  65  90  66  92  67 /  60  30   0  10   0
OCF  67  90  68  92  68 /  40  30   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
558 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

GAZ132>135-149-151-250-032230-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-Atkinson GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-
Northern Ware GA-
558 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Coffee,
west central Pierce, northeastern Atkinson, north central Ware,
Bacon, southern Jeff Davis and west central Appling Counties through
630 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Green, or near Douglas, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, half inch hail, and minor
         flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Alma, Broxton, Nicholls, West Green, Denton and Bickley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 8285 3153 8295 3171 8284 3180 8246
      3136 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 267DEG 15KT 3155 8275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
612 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             2 WSW WEST GREEN        31.60N 82.77W
05/03/2022  E0.25 INCH       COFFEE             GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS PEA SIZE HAIL ON TWITTER.

&&

PK

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