Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
352 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DAILY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Tropical airmass extending across the region from the low pressure
center along the GA/SC coast with PWATs of 2 inches or more and
diurnal heating has kicked off numerous to widespread shower and
storm activity that will continue through sunset before slowly
fading/ending around midnight. Main threats will be heavy rainfall
due to slow storm motion and some strong wind gusts into the 40-50
mph range, although cannot rule out an isolated severe wet
microburst gusts to 60mph. Low temps will fall overnight into the
lower 70s inland and middle 70s for the Atlantic Coast with some
brief/patchy fog possible around sunrise Saturday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Moist tropical airmass with PWATs of 2 inches or more will linger
through the holiday weekend and combine with diurnal heating and a
weak westerly flow. This will provide for numerous to widespread
coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
hours, and interaction with the East Coast sea breeze pushing into
the I-95 corridor where most of the heavy rainfall threat will be
along with locally/urbanized temporary flooding issues. Max temps
reaching into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast before
convection breaks out each, and combined with dewpoints in the
middle 70s, peak heat indices in the 100-105 range. Rain cooled
lows in the lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the Coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Bermuda High pressure ridge axis will slowly build westward across
the region and shift the steering flow back to a more southeasterly
direction which will at first shift the numerous showers and
storms more inland on Monday and Tuesday, then slightly drier
airmass aloft builds into the region with PWATs falling to just
below 2 inches along with High Pressure Ridging aloft to bring
back to more "normal" scattered afternoon/evening storms with
coverage of 40-50% for the Wednesday through Friday time frame.
Max temps will remain above normal in the lower/middle 90s inland
and around 90 along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Numerous slow-moving storms building throughout the forecast area
moving in a west to east pattern, reaching sites along the eastern
portion of the CWA this afternoon. Main threats with storms are
localized flooding and variable wind gusts of up to about 25 to
35 knots. Winds will be out of the S-SW for inland areas and out
of the E for sites affected by the Atlantic coast sea breeze.
Widespread storms will become dispersed overnight with mild winds
setting in through Saturday morning. Renewed bouts of convection
are expected to develop on Saturday near the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...

Low pressure along the SC/GA coast with trough extending south
across NE FL/SE GA will continue a South-Southwest flow in the
15-20 knot range tonight with seas 3-6 ft and have placed a SCEC
(Small Craft Exercise Caution) headline in the CWF. This low
pressure system will slowly track NE away from the waters over the
holiday weekend with decreasing S-SW winds back into the 10-15
knot range. Bermuda high pressure ridge axis will build in from
the East across the local waters next week with less thunderstorm
activity expect and mainly South winds at 10-15 knots and local SE
sea breezes along the coast each day.

Rip Currents: A mainly south to southwest flow with daily SE sea
breezes along the Atlantic Coast will keep a Moderate risk of rip
currents through the holiday weekend with surf/breakers generally
in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized 3 to 5 inch
amounts are expected through Monday across most of the area,
especially closer to the Atlantic Coast along the I-95 and US301
corridors where interaction with the East Coast sea breeze takes
place. Most of this rainfall is welcome since June was drier than
normal, but may produce some temporary localized/urban flooding
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  91  71  92  72 /  50  80  40  60  40
SSI  75  87  76  88  77 /  60  70  50  50  30
JAX  73  90  73  92  74 /  70  70  40  60  40
SGJ  73  90  74  90  75 /  80  70  40  50  30
GNV  71  91  72  92  73 /  70  80  30  70  30
OCF  72  92  73  92  73 /  60  80  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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