Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jacksonville, FL

144 
WGUS72 KJAX 300054
FFSJAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

FLC035-109-300104-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220930T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Flagler FL-St. Johns FL-
854 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Minor flooding may continue in areas with 
poor drainage.  Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 2993 8130 2985 8126 2946 8111 2946 8112
      2945 8113 2943 8126 2991 8141

$$

WOLF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
155 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Widespread MVFR to IFR impacts are ongoing at all terminals due
to nearby Tropical Storm Ian which is expected to pass to the east
off the coast of Florida through the afternoon and evening hours.
Low level wind shear upwards of 50 to 60 knots is expected at all
terminals except KGNV. Impacts to visibilities and ceilings will
gradually improve from south to north across our area with
conditions expected to worsen at KSSI later this evening as Ian
moves northward. TJS

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

While Tropical Storm conditions have been ongoing along the NE
FL/SE GA Coastal Counties, drier air mass has been drawn southward
across inland portions of SE GA/NE FL, with dew points falling
into the 30s/40s/50s and RH levels as low as 30-35% early this
morning. This is keeping the heavy rainfall confined to the
Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor and only pushing as
far inland as the St Johns River Basin. This trend will continue
over the next 24 hours as Ian slowly tracks towards the FL East
Coast and then tracks through the NE FL/SE GA Atlantic Coastal
waters tonight and Friday, before lifting Northward into the
Carolinas for Friday Night. Will likely stay the course with the
Flood Watch and Tropical Storm Warnings along the I-95 corridor
from SE GA south through NE FL and along the St Johns River Basin
while along the US 301 corridor in NE FL where the sharp edge of
heavy rainfall and winds end, may need to trim back on some of
these headlines as we move through the day today. Otherwise as the
system pulls northward through the Coastal Waters tonight, the
heavy rainfall will start to end from Southwest to Northeast
across the region, ending across inland NE FL late tonight, then
ending across the rest of the area early Friday. The winds will
take a bit longer to weaken on Friday as Ian tracks through the
coastal waters, but likely to see the end of Tropical Storm Force
wind gusts through the day. Temps will remain below normal through
the period with the widespread rainfall and north flow around Ian.
Temps remain below normal with highs only reaching around 70
degrees inland today and middle 70s along the coast. Another
cooler than normal day on Friday with highs in the upper 60s
across SE GA, but rebounding into the 70s across NE FL by the
late afternoon hours as rainfall ends and some clearing starts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Post storm residual mid/level upper trough will be over the region
in the wake of Ian with much drier air air mass and precip free
with PWATS less than an inch in place over SE GA and NE FL. The
system will be over the inland Carolinas during the weekend in a
much debilitated residual storm then depression. Highs will in
the 80 to 85 degree range Saturday through Sunday, with lows upper
50s interior SE GA to mid 60s north central FL and coast by
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Zonal flow will be in place Monday through Wednesday with a trailing
sfc trough axis or cold front working southward in the wake of
Ida with mainly dry weather in place through Wednesday. There may
be some isolated shower along the front and offshore waters but
not enough to mention showers over land areas in the forecast.
There will be beautiful weather with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s SE GA and lower to mid
60s inland, with mid 60s coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Hurricane Ian will track east-northeast across south central FL
Today, then north up the offshore waters Tonight through Friday
morning. The region will be in the trough behind the storm system
over the weekend into early next week.

Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates
and plan accordingly. (Issued by JAX)

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Hurricane Ian will continue to move very slow as the system
slides from south central Florida into east central Florida with a
decaying trend as the system moves closer the east coast of
Florida. Rainfall amount will be tempered with a more south and
east track with best threat

Tonight through Friday night...Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
with locally higher amounts of 15 inches over eastern Putnam,
eastern Marion, Flagler and southeast St. Johns Counties with
trends markedly decreasing northwest of this immediate
precipitation axis to the North and west of this line. As a
result, most river levels that were forecast to go into moderate
and major levels will most likely be in action to minor stages due
to this shift.

As Saturday progresses the tropical moisture associated with Ian
will advect well northward as system moves into the Carolinas this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
SSI MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
JAX MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
SGJ MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
GNV MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
OCF MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HIGH SURF        2 N FLAGLER BEACH       29.50N 81.14W
09/29/2022                   FLAGLER            FL   PUBLIC

            LARGE WAVES ARE TOSSING EROSION CONTROL
            ROCKS ONTO A1A. ROAD IS CLOSED. ROCKS ARE
            ABOUT THE SIZE OF A PINEAPPLE.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     STORM SURGE      4 WSW MARINELAND        29.65N 81.28W
09/29/2022                   FLAGLER            FL   PUBLIC

            PELICER CREEK TIDE GAUGE HAS REACHED 4.03
            FEET MHHW. THIS REPRESENTS MAJOR FLOODING
            LEVELS FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY IN THE
            MARINELAND/MATANZAS INLET AREAS.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLOOD            8 SW BUNNELL            29.39N 81.37W
09/29/2022                   FLAGLER            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            TOTAL WATER LEVEL DUE TO STORM SURGE AND
            RAINFALL FLOODING. LEVEL REPORTED BY USGS
            GAUGE HAW CREEK-RUSSELL LANDING AT 6.56 FT
            MHHW.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     STORM SURGE      AL'S HOUSE              30.26N 81.43W
09/29/2022                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

            STORM SURGE AT THE LEVEL OF IRMA, POSSIBLY A
            FEW INCHES HIGHER.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     STORM SURGE      HAMMOCKS OF OAK LANDING 30.26N 81.43W
09/29/2022                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS STORM SURGE REPORT FROM
            AL'S HOUSE. STORM SURGE AT THE LEVEL OF
            IRMA, POSSIBLY A FEW INCHES HIGHER.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 NW FERNANDINA BEACH   30.67N 81.47W
09/29/2022                   NASSAU             FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FERNANDINA BEACH FIRE CHIEF REPORTS MINOR
            DAMAGE TO FERNANDINA HARBOR MARINA. RAMP IS
            IN WATER AND BOBBING ALONGSIDE FLOATING
            DOCKS.

&&

ACS