Severe Thunderstorm Warning 358, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
644 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Tonight and Thursday...The threat for severe storms will exist
across the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight. Adequate
instability and sufficient wind shear across the region will result
in some of the most intense storms being capable of producing
damaging wind gusts between 60-70 mph and hail to the size of
quarters, but a tornado can't be ruled out within any breaks in the
line of storms.  This potential currently looks most favorable over
areas north of the Interstate 20 corridor, where the above
ingredients look best, along with the addition of the best forcing
in the vicinity of the front. South of the Interstate 20 corridor,
isolated severe storms will remain possible overnight as the front
progresses further south and convection weakens. Damaging wind gusts
and hail to the size of quarters are possible, but a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

In the wake of the front, some light rain will linger for an hour of
two as winds become northwesterly.  Once the rain comes to an end,
conditions will steadily improve through mid-morning as cooler drier
air advects into the region.  By Thursday afternoon, mostly sunny
skies are expected areawide as highs top out from the mid 70s to
lower 80s.  /19/

Late week through early next week (Friday-next Tuesday)...Late
week-weekend (Friday-Sunday): By Fri morn, sfc high will be
building across the S MS Valley & gradually building to the E.
Mean trough will remain parked over the N Great Lakes. Under this
sfc ridge, much drier air, with PWs falling to half to three
quarters of an inch, will persist. This will lead to cool & near
climo temps, with highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s Fri. Light winds
& dry conditions aloft will support decent rad cooling Fri morn.
Lows will fall below climo in the mid-upper 40s NE of I-20 to low
50s to the S. Some even more pronounced cooling is possible in
cold drainage areas in NE MS, so wouldn't rule out some areas
briefly falling into the upper 30s-low 40s. Will continue to
monitor this potential.

Omega block pattern is progged to persist into early weekend as
strong ridging persists over the Pacific NW & over N Atlantic. This
will lead to mean troughing over the E half of the nation, while
upper low slowly ejects E into Baja Peninsula/Desert SW into the
weekend. As broad ascent increases & upper jet diffluence moves
over, the column will begin to saturate, with PWs climbing back in
excess of an inch & a half. This will help rain chances to increase
from NW-SE through the day Sun. Highs prior this weekend will be
above climo as 925 temp profiles warm into the upper teens-low 20s
C. This will support high temps above climo into the mid-upper 80s
Sat before increased rain/storm & clouds with slightly cooler
conditions Sun into the low 80s.

Early next week (Next Monday-Tuesday): Stronger upper jet/PV will
amplify S-SE into the Great Lakes & potentially OH Valley, but there
is some spatial uncertainties on amplitude of the longwave trough.
This will drive a front down towards the area into next Mon, with
strong sfc ridging & subsidence/drier air building in. Rain chances
will quickly move S of I-20 into Mon aftn before moving out before
daybreak Tues. This pattern will support much cooler thermo with
temps below climo, with highs only into the low-mid 70s Mon & only
mid-upper 60s next Tues. Lows could fall into the low-mid 40s Mon
night. The first frost looks possible into mid week, only if winds
decouple & strong pressure gradient can lighten up enough maximize
the most efficient rad cooling. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Isolated TSRA in the east will gradually dissipate over east MS
during the next hour but a line of TSRA along and just ahead of a
cold front will move in vcty of GLH by 06Z and move se through the
whole area tonight. The TSRA will bring IFR/LIFR conditions for
an hour or two along with a wind shift to the nw. Away from TSRA
activity VFR conditions wl continue to prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  80  51  81 /  70   0   0   0
Meridian      62  80  49  81 /  70   0   0   0
Vicksburg     62  81  51  84 /  70   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   66  83  52  83 /  50  10   0   0
Natchez       64  81  53  83 /  70   0   0   0
Greenville    59  79  48  84 /  70   0   0   0
Greenwood     59  78  48  81 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

19/DC/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
301 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>052-131000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-
301 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph and quarter size hail. A tornado cannot be
ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ024>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-131000-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
301 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot
be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday..

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>