Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Scattered showers and storms are occurring this evening. Any site
that is affected by a storm could see brief MVFR restrictions in
vis especially. Conditions will improve following storms and all
storms should diminish by 04-06Z tonight. VFR conditions are
expected otherwise and should continue overnight. Some fog may
occur which could bring MVFR restrictions. Another round of
afternoon convection is expected tomorrow. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday:

The effects of low-level high pressure over our region can be seen
on visible satellite imagery early this afternoon, as suppressed
cumulus field slowly spirals clockwise across the area. Abundant
atmospheric moisture, an upper-level low over Arkansas, and and the
presence of an easterly wave disturbance along the Gulf Coast will
however be enough to sustain areas of showers and thunderstorms from
this afternoon into this evening. Heat index values up to around 105
will continue through this afternoon, and a heat advisory remains in
effect for parts of the area through 7 PM. Additional showers and
storms are expected tomorrow, with chances kicking in a little
earlier as low pressure disturbances over the region will help
provide lift for development. Through the rest of this afternoon at
least, some stronger thunderstorms could pose a threat for
microbursts with damaging winds. SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and deep
moisture will make for some robust convection, but DCAPE is somewhat
limited by the more saturated atmosphere in place farther east. More
isolated convection farther north and west from the coast would pose
a greater risk for a microburst where mid-level dry air has a chance
to enhance the downdraft temperatures. Chances for severe storms
tomorrow looks even less likely as the tropical air mass spreads
across the region. /NF/

Wednesday through Next Monday:

A sub tropical like pattern will continue across the region for the
extended period. The good part about this is, the more rain chances
we see, the less chance there is for dangerous heat stress.
However, with the increased amount of moisture there could be
some issues with flash flooding.

Midlevel ridging will begin to breakdown by Wednesday allowing a
long wave trough to set up just northeast of the MS Valley region.
As troughing begins to persist across the southeast, mid and surface
level winds will become more south/southeast resulting in increased
moisture from the Gulf. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will
extend into the southern plains but won't make its way through the
MS Valley region just yet, however with the front being within
proximity, low level moisture will be plentiful as PWs will range
from 1.5-2+ inches through out the period. With the expected diurnal
convection, weak mid and upper level jet flow, and increased low
level moisture, any developing storms could have the potential to
train over some areas, meaning some isolated flash flooding could be
possible. Though models are in better agreement with the placement
of the front on Wed and Thurs, there is still low confidence as
there with the potential for storms to back build and so for that
reason, will hold off on any flash flood potential in the HWO.

With the increased rain and storm chances, high temperatures will be
more regulated as cloud cover increase. There is always the
possibility that cloud cover under achieves and a few spots across
the region may see heat index values near 100 but for now, heat
index values are expected to remain below heat stress criteria. By
Friday night/early Saturday morning, the previous mentioned front
will have made its way through a good portion of the region which
will help increase rain and storm chances this weekend. Shear values
are pretty weak so little threat for any severe weather however some
storms may briefly produce strong wind gusts. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  89  71  87 /  29  75  33  70
Meridian      72  90  72  89 /  29  71  24  67
Vicksburg     73  91  71  87 /  25  66  32  59
Hattiesburg   72  90  72  89 /  26  81  19  77
Natchez       72  89  71  86 /  25  65  23  61
Greenville    74  90  72  87 /  21  70  46  63
Greenwood     74  91  71  89 /  26  73  43  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
308 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
092015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
308 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

MSZ032-033-082345-
Oktibbeha MS-Choctaw MS-
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Choctaw
and southwestern Oktibbeha Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Reform, or 19 miles west of Starkville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Reform around 635 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8903 3332 8903 3337 8930 3351 8929
      3352 8926 3352 8924 3353 8921 3353 8910
      3354 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 299DEG 3KT 3346 8915

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
635 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

MSZ043-048-049-090000-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
635 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rankin, east
central Hinds and south central Madison Counties through 700 PM
CDT...

At 635 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ridgeland, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Rankin,
east central Hinds and south central Madison Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 9021 3249 8998 3230 9001 3229 9023
      3233 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 293DEG 8KT 3239 9008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
713 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

MSZ043-048-090100-
Hinds MS-Madison MS-
713 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Hinds
and southwestern Madison Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pocahontas, or 10 miles north of Clinton, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pocahontas around 720 PM CDT.
  Flora around 740 PM CDT.
  Annandale around 800 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 9042 3254 9044 3264 9023 3249 9016
      3242 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 237DEG 5KT 3250 9032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

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