Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
935 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the area this
evening, especially along and north of the I-20 corridor. Storms
emanating from the Delta have not been as balanced with the cold
pools, which has become apparent by outflow boundaries that have
raced ahead of the main convective cores. Regardless, trailing
cores have continued to display severe characteristics with
damaging winds still potentially reaching the surface. With time,
however, these trailing cores will weaken with new updrafts
developing along the leading outflow, which is already apparent on
the northern side of the Jackson metro. Further north, outflow
boundary collisions from Attala county south to Leake county will
support additional storm development that will push south over the
next several hours. And finally, to the east, a much more
organized and well established complex of severe thunderstorms
with a deep mature cold pool has dropped south along the AL/MS
state line. South to southwest storm motion will support
maintenance of this activity along the I-59 corridor through the
rest of the evening. Despite the loss of daytime heating, the
atmosphere remains quite unstable and supportive of a continued
severe threat. Eventually, convection will gradually wind down and
push south of the area by the overnight hours, with most
locations rain free by or shortly after midnight/1am. Adjustments
were made to the timing of PoPs, otherwise the ongoing forecast
remains on track and no major adjustments were needed. /TW/

Prior discussion below:

Not much has changed from earlier thinking concerning both
Excessive Heat and severe storm potential for the rest of today
into this evening. What has changed is the concern for heat on
Friday.

Heat concerns...It's Hot/Humid out there for sure with heat indices
(HIs) peaking across the warning area between 110-117 degrees. So
the upgrade to the Excessive Heat Warning is working out and in the
locations noted. The rest of the area is reaching HIs of 105-110 so
the Advisory area is working out. This oppressive heat will linger
into the evening and will allow these heat products to expire at 9pm.

As for Friday's heat potential, much of this will hinge on storm
evolution this evening and how that "uses" up the boundary layer
moisture. Typically it has a sizable impact on the following day.
The result is lower temperatures and dew points which keeps HIs in
check. In this situation, the latest NBM guidance actually picks
this up nicely and does lower both temps and RH. Even with a
lowering of those elements, much of the area will still see
hot/humid conditions supporting Heat Adv criteria. So, have added an
Adv for Friday which covers like 2/3rds of the W/NW forecast area.
The SE 1/3 will be left out.

Storms and severe weather potential...earlier discussion and
thoughts are on track. Cap is holding and the more subtle s/w to
help trigger convection is still off to our NW/N over AR. So while
we noted multiple favorable parameters earlier, there are
limitations which could keep convection held in check. First is the
subtle s/w which may not provide enough deep ascent. The other is
the cap being a bit stronger and warmer 700mb temps. Despite having
solid low level convergence and moisture pooling near the boundary
across the MS Delta, those limitations could be just enough to slow
vertical motions. Overall, it's a mixed bag with how the models
handle things. Still, the environment in place is very unstable with
SBcape peaking at 6000-6500 j/kg off the SPC meso-a site and several
other key parameters very supportive of severe storms all in place.
From this, will lean on the more aggressive guidance with more
active convection later this evening. Timing is basically the same
with initiation more in the 5-7pm range and storm evolution from 7pm
to midnight or 1am. While close to prev noted times, there's still
some differences and a slightly later trend. Due to this, will
adjust the graphics to better reflect latest thoughts.

Other weather elements...PoPs were increased tonight across the
central part of the forecast area (mainly where the Slight risk is
situated) as guidances seem to be underdone. On Friday, NBM PoPs
were quite high in the SE and opted to lower values some. This is
based off the overall thinking tonight will offer greater coverage
of storms which will impact moisture return on Friday and ultimately
cause lower precip potential during that period. /CME/

Friday night through next Thursday...

Another hot and humid weekend is on tap for the region from the
influence of 700mb anticyclonic motion, which will keep a warm,
southerly airmass persistent at the surface. Precipitation chances
will be mostly confined to the E/SE portions of the area, but will
remain isolated to scattered in the afternoon hours on Saturday and
Sunday. By Monday through the new work week, surface heights will
begin to build over southeast CONUS. Increased chances of dangerous
heat will present itself again, with the potential of heat indices
ranging 110-115 degrees in the northwest, especially the Mississippi
Delta through mid-week. An Significant for heat stress has been put
into the HWO for the Mississippi Delta region, while an Elevated is
outlooked for the remainder of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances will remain diurnal in nature, with higher chances of
isolated to scattered showers and storms being in the south and
eastern portions of Mississippi. High temperatures will continue to
range in the middle to upper 90s, while overnight lows will
primarily be in the 70s. Continue to stay hydrated and limit
outdoor activities throughout the day! /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
Highway 82 corridor late this afternoon with VCTS at GLH/GWO/GTR.
This activity is expected to push south through the evening hours
eventually impacting most terminals. Some of these storms may also
be severe with 50kt or greater wind gusts and small hail. Timing
and evolution of the storms has been difficult to pin down and
amendments to the TAFs are likely through the evening as storms
evolve. An additional round of showers and storms may redevelop
along and south of I-20 mid to late tomorrow morning, but will
depend on how storms evolve tonight, so did not mention in the TAF
at this time. /TW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  93  73  92 /  49  40  22  26
Meridian      73  92  72  93 /  64  49  19  28
Vicksburg     75  93  73  92 /  35  27  41  16
Hattiesburg   75  92  73  94 /  52  59  32  33
Natchez       74  92  72  93 /  27  40  41  23
Greenville    73  96  74  94 /  39   6   8  11
Greenwood     73  98  74  96 /  45  10  10  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019-
     025>050-053-054-059-060.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075.

&&

TW/AJ/CME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ019-025>047-222000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph and hail up to quarter size.  Near
continuous lightning can be expected with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, dangerous heat
expected with peak heat values in excess of 110 degrees. Heat
stroke will be a significant concern with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ018-222000-
Bolivar-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts. Near continuous lightning can be expected
with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, dangerous heat
expected with peak heat values in excess of 110 degrees. Heat
stroke will be a significant concern with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ023-025-MSZ048-053-222000-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Hinds-Claiborne-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon and again Friday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph and hail up to quarter size.  Near
continuous lightning can be expected with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

This afternoon and again friday, dangerous heat likely with peak
heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ049>052-054>056-222000-
Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph and hail up to quarter size.  Near
continuous lightning can be expected with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ059-061-222000-
Jefferson-Franklin MS-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts. Near continuous lightning can be expected
with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-222000-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon and again Friday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts. Near continuous lightning can be expected
with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

This afternoon and again friday, dangerous heat likely with peak
heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ062>066-072>074-222000-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts. Near continuous lightning can be expected
with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ057-058-222000-
Jasper-Clarke-
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph and hail up to quarter size.  Near
continuous lightning can be expected with these storms.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than
110 degrees and/or air temperatures over 105 degrees is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi on Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees and/or air temperatures up to 103 or 105 is expected
for portions of extreme southeast Arkansas, northeast
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, all
of central Mississippi, and all of south central Mississippi on
Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

33

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     LIGHTNING        DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.43W
07/21/2022                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TRANSFORMERS WERE STRUCK, POWER OUT IN
            PARTS OF TOWN.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
604 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
07/21/2022  E1.00 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEW BOUT OF HAIL IN TOWN.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

ARZ075-MSZ034-220030-
Chicot AR-Washington MS-
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Chicot
and southwestern Washington Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 642 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Avon, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wayside around 650 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Arkansas...and northwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 9116 3325 9119 3332 9092 3311 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 260DEG 19KT 3320 9107

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
657 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

MSZ037-038-045-220045-
Neshoba MS-Attala MS-Winston MS-
657 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Attala,
southern Winston and northwestern Neshoba Counties through 745 PM
CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zama, or 13 miles north of Edinburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stallo around 725 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Noxapater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8902 3289 8923 3293 8932 3293 8936
      3296 8943 3313 8932 3311 8932 3311 8922
      3314 8921 3312 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 277DEG 20KT 3299 8926

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
731 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

MSZ035-041-042-220115-
Sharkey MS-Humphreys MS-Yazoo MS-
731 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Yazoo,
southwestern Humphreys and northeastern Sharkey Counties through 815
PM CDT...

At 731 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Anguilla, or 9 miles east of Rolling Fork, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Yazoo,
southwestern Humphreys and northeastern Sharkey Counties, including
the following locations... Louise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 9086 3308 9082 3298 9038 3272 9047
      3279 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 278DEG 9KT 3296 9073

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
854 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

MSZ025-027-220230-
Carroll MS-Leflore MS-
854 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Carroll and
central Leflore Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenwood, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Malmaison around 900 PM CDT.
  North Carrollton and Coila around 905 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Morgan City and
Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and north central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3360 8987 3331 8999 3334 9020 3337 9031
      3337 9032 3336 9032 3336 9030 3335 9028
      3337 9045 3351 9045 3363 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 283DEG 49KT 3348 9013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JNE