Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Jackson, MS

025 
WWUS54 KJAN 020751
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
151 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022

MSC035-067-073-020801-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220102T0815Z/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-Jones MS-
151 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN FORREST...
NORTHEASTERN LAMAR AND SOUTHERN JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3121 8949 3143 8944 3143 8940 3145 8940
      3157 8894 3143 8894 3143 8914 3127 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 253DEG 34KT 3141 8909 

$$

EC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1254 AM CST Sun Jan 2 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Strong cold front is moving through, bringing lowered MVFR flight
cats, decreasing to IFR late tonight. Light pcpn will develop in
the cold advection regime Sun aftn & some light snow &/or light
snow showers could mix in for at least the GLH-GWO-GTR corridor, &
potentially to the JAN-HKS-MEI corridor by late aftn. Timing for
changeover looks to be 02/18-21Z at GLH/GWO while 02/21-23Z at
GTR-JAN-HKS to MEI corridor. Some of this could linger just after
03/00-01Z. Any lowered flight cats should improve to MVFR by early
evening, around or just after 03/00Z. In the wake of the cold
front, NW gradient winds could be quite gusty up to 25-30mph at
times & decreasing into the evening hours, but remaining N into
Mon. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convective coverage and intensity is dwindling this evening and
expect the severe weather threat to end soon for the forecast
area. Otherwise, the forecast for the arrival of winter tomorrow
is still on track, and the weather change will feel pretty
extreme given how warm it has been. We're also continuing to
monitor the risk for some wintry precipitation tomorrow afternoon,
particularly over northwest to northern portions of the area. As
of now, this appears it will be light and should have little if
any impact. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through tomorrow...
Near term forecast split into a few main concerns. The storm
system approaching potentially bringing two rounds of
weather...the first the discrete warm sector afternoon/early
evening convection... and the pressure gradient winds. The second
being the tail end of a line of convection that moves into the
region with the frontal boundary later this evening. The
timing/mode/intensity is still a bit of a question mark, even at
midday, as different parameters pull in different directions.
However, if the strong mid level cap holds with the stronger large
scale ascent still out to the west...the coverage for severe
weather will be more limited. Tonight, the main upper level trough
and surface front drag a line of showers/thunderstorms through
the region. Storms/the main line of precip associated with this
system will move into JANs forecast area late this afternoon/this
evening. All of the shower activity through today may further
limit the llvl lapse rates available for those storms. All this
being said, the winds aloft are in excess of 50-70kts, with modest
veering at the surface. The best chances for severe weather
remain to the north in proximity to the developing low.

Overnight, much colder temperatures filter in, with Sunday's
highs likely reached early in the morning...becoming colder all
day. Some of the models have been intermittently been introducing
some wrap around moisture on that low. If that were to happen, we
may see some flurries across the north...though the time frame is
brief as to when there is enough moisture in the column to support
crystals forming in the first place. However, this low is not
traditional in that the upper trough is displaced well to the
west...its positively tilted... and more of a narrow trough though
this region than a classic mature cyclonic low. Historically, the
models had been wrapping it up just east of MS...so the wrap
around moisture made sense. With this run, that detail morphed a
little. So, not a high confidence chance at the flurries on this
cycle... but enough potential in BUFkit/forecast soundings to
leave the mention in the grids for the northern counties.

Tomorrow night through Friday...
Sunday night through Wednesday: Any lingering precip is expected
to depart the area by shortly after sunset Sunday with the passage
of the mid/upper trough. Decreasing wind and clearing skies will
make for a rather cold morning Monday, with lows in 20s over most
of the area. After another night of freezing conditions Monday
night/Tuesday morning, daytime temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will
rebound closer to seasonal normals.

Late Wednesday through next Saturday: Another system will take shape
during the middle of next week as a new upper trough carves out over
the middle of the CONUS and a front develops near or just northwest
of the area. Scattered showers will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday as this front comes through. Given the short return flow
window ahead of this system, instability is expected to be too
limited for thunderstorms. Another rather cold airmass will follow
this front, with low temperatures back down into the 20s by Friday
morning...and even some teens couldn't be ruled out in the typical
cooler pockets farther north. Heading into next weekend, the weather
pattern looks to become more progressive, with a warm front
returning northward and a chance for a few rain showers again by
next Saturday. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       46  60  27  47 /  48   5   0   0
Meridian      56  65  28  48 /  58  20   0   0
Vicksburg     42  55  27  47 /  35   1   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  67  29  50 /  58   9   0   0
Natchez       44  57  27  48 /  31   1   0   0
Greenville    38  47  27  43 /  37   2   0   0
Greenwood     41  50  26  45 /  48   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ034>038-040>044-047>050-
053-054-021945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-
Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph, hail quarter to golf ball size,
and tornadoes are possible. Timing will mainly be from early
Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, sustained winds up to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 to
45 mph are expected mid-morning Saturday through late Saturday
afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ018-019-025>033-021945-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, large hail of quarter to golf
ball size, and tornadoes are possible. Timing will mainly be from
early Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph are expected mid-
morning Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ039-045-046-051-052-055>058-021945-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph, hail quarter to golf ball size,
and tornadoes are possible. Timing will mainly be from early
Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 20-25 mph with wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected mid-morning
Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059-060-021945-
Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size Mid-
morning today through early this evening are possible. Tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Timing will mainly be from early Saturday
afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph are expected mid-
morning Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ061>066-072>074-021945-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size are
possible. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Timing will mainly be
from early Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 20-25 mph with wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected mid-morning
Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
917 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

MSZ026-029-020330-
Grenada MS-Webster MS-
917 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Grenada and
northwestern Webster Counties through 930 PM CST...

At 917 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sabougla, or 16 miles east of Grenada, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Grenada and
northwestern Webster Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for north central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8951 3372 8939 3366 8950 3368 8951
      3368 8955 3381 8967 3387 8959 3387 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 230DEG 49KT 3376 8953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JNE