Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...HOT AND STORMY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weakening in the ridge that's been over
the region this week, is allowing a trough to slowly settle south
and into the forecast area. As a result, a frontal boundary will
likewise sink south into and through the forecast area this
evening into Sunday. Thanks to the hot conditions, coupled with a
very unstable air mass over the area, and forcing from the front,
showers and storms will continue to develop ahead of the front
into this evening, with some convective organization possible
along the front itself.

A "Slight Risk" of severe storms exists across mainly northern,
central, and eastern portions of the CWA for the remainder of the
afternoon and into tonight.  Some storms could be severe during this
time and produce damaging wind gusts between 60-70 mph. Elsewhere, a
"Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms exists.  Damaging wind
gusts will again be the primary concern with the most intense storms.

Rain chances will shift over southern portions of the CWA on Sunday,
as the boundary continues moving south.  While northerly flow sets
up over the region in the front's wake, it unfortunately won't much
with the humid conditions as dew points will remain in the low and
middle 70s.  That said, highs on Sunday will be slightly "cooler",
but they'll still warm into the lower 90s. Some late morning and
afternoon heat index values over areas mainly south of the
Interstate 20 corridor, could range between 106-110 at times. While
a "Heat Advisory" may be needed on Sunday for portions of this area,
it's currently a tough call to make as convection along the
front could be a big spoiler in conditions getting this hot. /19/

Sunday Night through Saturday...Upper ridging will continue to
retrograde into the Four Corners region with northerly flow aloft
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A northern stream trough will
swing through the Northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary across northern
Mississippi will gradually ooze south towards the I-20 corridor
through Tuesday afternoon. This will keep diurnally driven rain
chances confined mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor
through early next week as drier air (mid 60s dewpoints) filters
into northern portions of the area. This will be the only
noticeable change behind the boundary as temperatures will remain
in the low to mid 90s. At the same time, a Tropical Upper
Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) and associated upper low is forecast to
shift into the Gulf of Mexico as it becomes sandwiched between
upper ridging. Weak surface low pressure may develop along the
Gulf Coast, which coupled with the TUTT, will lead to increased
rain chances across the Pine Belt on Tuesday. Cloud cover will
also keep temperatures here below the 90 degree mark.

By mid to late next week, the frontal boundary stalled in the
vicinity of the I-20 corridor will lift back north allowing deep
tropical moisture to return to much of the area. Continued influence
from the weakening TUTT along with the aforementioned moisture
return will allow for increasing rain chances Wednesday and
Thursday. Cloud cover will also keep temperatures in check, but the
airmass will be rather soupy. As with any summer storms, wet
microburst potential will need to be assessed on a daily basis. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding cannot
be ruled out, especially across the Pine Belt. Will keep the
HWO/graphics clear of hazards for now as any flood threat will be
driven on the mesoscale and difficult to pinpoint at this timeframe.
A return to northerly flow late in the period may bring another
surge of drier air into the area late next week into the weekend
which would once again confine diurnally driven precipitation across
the southern tier. /TW/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories will persist at area TAF sites through much
of the remainder of the day. Convection breaking out along and
ahead of a cold front that push into the area this evening, could
bring brief bouts of MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities to
sites from late afternoon into tonight. Some storms could be
severe and capable of producing damaging winds between 52- 61
knots. During early Sunday morning, low clouds developing across
much of the area, will result in flight categories falling to a
mix of MVFR/IFR status through much of the morning hours. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  90  73  93 /  73  42   5  13
Meridian      74  91  73  93 /  79  59  11  23
Vicksburg     74  91  73  94 /  49  24   2   7
Hattiesburg   76  93  74  92 /  62  78  32  46
Natchez       75  92  74  93 /  50  43  10  16
Greenville    74  89  72  93 /  44   7   0   1
Greenwood     74  92  72  96 /  48  12   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-
     019-025>045-047>050-053>055-059>062.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ046-051-052-
     056>058-063>066-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-
     075.

&&

19/TW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-034-101100-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Washington-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Extreme
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, extreme heat is expected
with peak heat index values in excess of 110 degrees for multiple
days. Heat stroke continues to be a major concern with outdoor
activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ019-025>027-035-036-041-042-101100-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Humphreys-Holmes-Sharkey-Yazoo-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Extreme
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, extreme heat is expected
with peak heat index values in excess of 110 degrees for multiple
days. Heat stroke continues to be a major concern with outdoor
activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>045-050-101100-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Scott-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, dangerous heat expected
with peak heat values in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will
be a significant concern with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ007-015-016-023>026-MSZ047>049-053>055-059>062-101100-
Morehouse-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-
Concordia-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-
Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, dangerous heat
expected with peak heat values in excess of 110 degrees. Heat
stroke will be a significant concern with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ008-009-MSZ040-101100-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Issaquena-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Extreme
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, extreme heat is
expected with peak heat index values in excess of 110 degrees for
multiple days. Heat stroke continues to be a major concern with
outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ046-051-052-058-101100-
Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Clarke-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
between 60 and 70 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ063>065-072>074-101100-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon and again Sunday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

This afternoon and again sunday, dangerous heat likely with peak
heat index values ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ057-101100-
Jasper-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ056-066-101100-
Smith-Jones-
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly through the rest of this afternoon, dangerous heat likely
with peak heat index values ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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