Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
342 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Friday: Storms have developed over eastern
MS in an environment with steep lapse rates and high DCAPE values
supportive of downburst potential. As the storms continue to
move/propagate southwest/west into a hot and unstable airmass
through the late aftn and early evening, they should become
better organized and may bring the potential for a greater wind
threat to much of the remainder of the forecast area. Storms
should diminish with sunset, but expect a lingering shower/storm
threat into the overnight as cyclonic flow aloft continues.

Given a similar weather pattern for Friday with the forecast area
located between the upper low to our east upper ridge to our west,
we'll likely see a repeat of storm development with daytime
heating. This may raise concern for damaging downbursts again, but
there is still some conditional aspect on how things will evolve
tomorrow based on how much coverage we ultimately end up with
today. /EC/

Friday night through Thursday: A large upper-level closed low
will begin to lift north east and open up into an elongated trough
over the southeast while simultaneously pushing a midlevel short
wave across the Lower Mississippi Valley. While mid and upper
level flow will remain more modest, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday. Long range models(GFS &
ECMWF) continue to struggle with placement of precipitation and
which days we will be dry through out the extended period. The GFS
puts a possible MCS across the southwest early Sunday morning and
again across the north Monday afternoon while the ECMWF remains
dry. By Monday evening both models begin to build in mid level
ridging. So with this much difference in PoPs and the agreement of
a ridge building in next week, stuck with the dry NBM blend
Monday through next Thursday. High temperatures will range from
the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the period./JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part outside of SHRA/TSRA
activity through the forecast period, which should be most
prevalent during the afternoon/evening. There could also be LIFR
category stratus and fog concerns during the early morning in
primarily the PIB/HBG area. Otherwise, expect surface wind to be
light. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  89  66  88 /  38  41  19  34
Meridian      63  89  64  87 /  32  19   7  35
Vicksburg     70  91  68  89 /  21  41  23  28
Hattiesburg   66  88  65  88 /  42  44  10  43
Natchez       68  90  67  89 /  22  43  20  31
Greenville    72  90  69  87 /  15  40  17  25
Greenwood     70  88  68  85 /  23  37  20  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
248 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

ARZ074-LAZ007-132000-
Ashley-Morehouse-
248 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-023-024-026-MSZ019-025-026-030-033-034-039-046-
052-058-060-066-072>074-132000-
Chicot-West Carroll-East Carroll-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Clay-Oktibbeha-Washington-Noxubee-
Kemper-Lauderdale-Clarke-Adams-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
248 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, east central Mississippi, north
central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated severe storms containing damaging wind gusts and hail up
to quarter size will be possible late this afternoon and early
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ015-MSZ018-031-132000-
Richland-Bolivar-Lowndes-
248 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Isolated severe storms containing damaging wind gusts and hail up
to quarter size will be possible late this afternoon and early
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

LAZ016-025-MSZ027>029-032-035>038-040>045-047>051-053>057-059-
061>065-132000-
Madison LA-Tensas-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-
248 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe storms containing damaging wind gusts and hail up to
quarter size will be possible late this afternoon and early
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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