Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
215 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...

An upper-level trough will eject east from the Texas panhandle and a
surface low will develop out of that pushing across the Great Lakes
region. This low will drag a cold front through the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening. I like to call this a wet set up
because there will be tremendous amount of low-level moisture. Close
to if not right at record breaking PWs between 1.5-2.0 in. Good low-
level moisture combined with daytime heating will allow for some
good instability. Guidance has struggled over these last couple of
days with storm mode. Initially the environment was conducive for
strictly super cell activity but as of right now, we are still
capped and things will evolve more with the front when it pushes
through making storm mode more linear across the south. Further
north, where the better shear and airmass is, conditions are still
favorable for discrete organized super cells and this is where the
main concern lies for larger hail and strong tornadoes.

With high PWs, the threat for flash flooding will be possible
especially if cells begin to train over areas. Will continue with
current flash flooding graphic in the HWO. Wind has started to pick
up and some TAF site have already gusted to 35kts. Winds will
continue to be strong as we mix out this afternoon into early
evening. Winds will start to decrease the after we get into the
evening/night. Will continue the latest wind graphic that depicts
the 'Limited' and 'Elevated'. The strongest winds will be across the
northwest.

While we are advertising a 'Moderate' and 'Enhanced' risk, the
threats are the same for both categories. Tornadoes (a few may be
string), hail (some large up to golf ball), flooding, and damaging
winds will all be of concern across the region. In regards to
timing, now until about 9PM for the west, 4-5PM until about 11PM for
central areas, and 6PM-1AM for areas in the east. It is suggested
that you have multiple ways to receive warnings and always stay
weather aware!

As the front moves out so will the activity. By Thursday morning,
the activity should be east of the region and dry air will move in
keeping us dry for the remainder of Thursday. /JNE/

Friday through Wednesday...

In the back half of this week, the focus for periods of showers and
thunderstorms around our region will be quasi-stationary front
lingering around the Gulf Coast region. Flow aloft over the southern
CONUS will be mostly zonal, with moist and more unstable air south
of the frontal boundary. This setup is likely to see a few MCSs
develop along the boundary as subtle shortwaves ripple through the
flow aloft. Friday night into Saturday is likely to be the first of
these potential events. Widespread severe weather is not certain,
but a few stronger storms could develop during this time frame.
Beyond Friday, each day generally has a chance for showers and
storms across at least some portion of the forecast area. There is
decent model agreement that a more pronounced shortwave moving east
across the CONUS Monday may bring in some drier air and high
pressure for at least early next week. Temperatures will obviously
be warmer south of the front, but will generally be around typical
values for this time of the year. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions are prevailing as clouds begin to break up.
A few sites are sitting at MVFR. VFR to MVFR conditions will
bounce around over the next couple of hours before +TSRA begins
to affect sites and dripping cigs and vis to MVFR and IFR. Strong
southerly gusty winds will occur through out the period. A few
sites have already gusted to about 35kts. Storms will be moving
from west to east so SHRA and TSRA activity will clear as storms
move out and cigs and vis will improve as well. Rain and storm
activity should come to an end early Thursday morning. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       49  75  49  81 /  95   1   4  14
Meridian      53  76  47  82 /  95   7   5  14
Vicksburg     49  75  50  82 /  85   0   3  12
Hattiesburg   58  76  51  81 /  93  18   6  18
Natchez       50  76  51  81 /  86   3   4  17
Greenville    45  71  49  79 /  72   0   2   6
Greenwood     45  72  49  80 /  93   0   2   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035.

LA...None.
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ075.

&&

NF/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

ARZ074-MSZ026>028-035-142015-
Ashley-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Humphreys-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely through
this evening, with strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms
could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up
to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to strong winds apart
from thunderstorm activity. Sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind
gusts around 35 mph will be possible through this evening.
Driving high profile vehicles could be difficult.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025-034-142015-
Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely through
this evening, with strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms
could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up
to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible through this
evening due to strong winds apart from thunderstorm activity.
Sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph with potential wind
gusts over 40 mph are expected. Travel will also be difficult for
those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ029>033-036>066-072-073-142015-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely through this evening. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail
up to golf ball size, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be
strong.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to strong winds apart
from thunderstorm activity. Sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind
gusts around 35 mph will be possible through this evening.
Driving high profile vehicles could be difficult.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ074-142015-
Forrest-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening. These
storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to
60 mph, hail to the size of quarters, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to strong winds apart
from thunderstorm activity. Sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind
gusts around 35 mph will be possible through this evening.
Driving high profile vehicles could be difficult.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW COLLINSTON        32.66N 91.94W
04/12/2022                   MOREHOUSE          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 4
            WSW COLLINSTON. TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 139
            IN THE SOUTH OF THE PARISH.

&&

LP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
329 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

LAZ016-132115-
Madison LA-
329 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Madison
Parish through 415 PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Somerset, or 14 miles southwest of Tallulah,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tallulah around 350 PM CDT.
  Mansford around 355 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 9123 3241 9103 3221 9124 3222 9127
      3223 9127 3223 9128 3222 9128 3222 9129
      3221 9131 3220 9132 3220 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 223DEG 37KT 3226 9137

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

LAZ008-009-MSZ040-132115-
East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-Issaquena MS-
340 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of East Carroll,
eastern West Carroll Parishes in northeastern Louisiana and
northwestern Issaquena Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Transylvania, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Providence around 350 PM CDT.
  Fitler around 355 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Louisiana...and west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9115 3267 9098 3254 9139 3254 9141
      3296 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 235DEG 35KT 3272 9127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86