Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1252 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through tomorrow...
Near term forecast split into a few main concerns. The storm
system approaching potentially bringing two rounds of
weather...the first the discrete warm sector afternoon/early
evening convection... and the pressure gradient winds. The second
being the tail end of a line of convection that moves into the
region with the frontal boundary later this evening. The
timing/mode/intensity is still a bit of a question mark, even at
midday, as different parameters pull in different directions.
However, if the strong mid level cap holds with the stronger large
scale ascent still out to the west...the coverage for severe
weather will be more limited. Tonight, the main upper level trough
and surface front drag a line of showers/thunderstorms through
the region. Storms/the main line of precip associated with this
system will move into JANs forecast area late this afternoon/this
evening. All of the shower activity through today may further
limit the llvl lapse rates available for those storms. All this
being said, the winds aloft are in excess of 50-70kts, with modest
veering at the surface. The best chances for severe weather
remain to the north in proximity to the developing low.

Overnight, much colder temperatures filter in, with Sunday's
highs likely reached early in the morning...becoming colder all
day. Some of the models have been intermittently been introducing
some wrap around moisture on that low. If that were to happen, we
may see some flurries across the north...though the time frame is
brief as to when there is enough moisture in the column to support
crystals forming in the first place. However, this low is not
traditional in that the upper trough is displaced well to the
west...its positively tilted... and more of a narrow trough though
this region than a classic mature cyclonic low. Historically, the
models had been wrapping it up just east of MS...so the wrap
around moisture made sense. With this run, that detail morphed a
little. So, not a high confidence chance at the flurries on this
cycle... but enough potential in BUFkit/forecast soundings to
leave the mention in the grids for the northern counties.

Tomorrow night through Friday...
Sunday night through Wednesday: Any lingering precip is expected
to depart the area by shortly after sunset Sunday with the passage
of the mid/upper trough. Decreasing wind and clearing skies will
make for a rather cold morning Monday, with lows in 20s over most
of the area. After another night of freezing conditions Monday
night/Tuesday morning, daytime temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will
rebound closer to seasonal normals.

Late Wednesday through next Saturday: Another system will take shape
during the middle of next week as a new upper trough carves out over
the middle of the CONUS and a front develops near or just northwest
of the area. Scattered showers will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday as this front comes through. Given the short return flow
window ahead of this system, instability is expected to be too
limited for thunderstorms. Another rather cold airmass will follow
this front, with low temperatures back down into the 20s by Friday
morning...and even some teens couldn't be ruled out in the typical
cooler pockets farther north. Heading into next weekend, the weather
pattern looks to become more progressive, with a warm front
returning northward and a chance for a few rain showers again by
next Saturday. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs below 3000 ft this afternoon.
Mainly south/southwesterly winds, but an increasing pressure
gradient has pushed the sustained to 15-20, and gusts to 30-35kts.
Increasing showers/vcts possible going into the afternoon...but
not completely sold on location/timing of TS at any location.
Better timing may be with a line of weakening thunderstorms later
as the front approaches. Front going through in the middle of the
night will set up a brief pd of LLWS and a windshift.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  46  60  27 /  55  84  64   5
Meridian      81  56  65  28 /  51  90  70  20
Vicksburg     83  42  55  27 /  56  58  57   1
Hattiesburg   82  61  67  29 /  51  90  64   9
Natchez       82  44  57  27 /  49  55  51   1
Greenville    79  38  47  27 /  89  36  58   2
Greenwood     80  41  50  26 /  89  69  65   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ034>038-040>044-047>050-
053-054-021945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-
Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph, hail quarter to golf ball size,
and tornadoes are possible. Timing will mainly be from early
Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, sustained winds up to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 to
45 mph are expected mid-morning Saturday through late Saturday
afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ018-019-025>033-021945-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, large hail of quarter to golf
ball size, and tornadoes are possible. Timing will mainly be from
early Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph are expected mid-
morning Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ039-045-046-051-052-055>058-021945-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph, hail quarter to golf ball size,
and tornadoes are possible. Timing will mainly be from early
Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 20-25 mph with wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected mid-morning
Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059-060-021945-
Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size Mid-
morning today through early this evening are possible. Tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Timing will mainly be from early Saturday
afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph are expected mid-
morning Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ061>066-072>074-021945-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
139 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through late evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Mid-morning today through early this evening

This afternoon through late evening, isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size are
possible. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Timing will mainly be
from early Saturday afternoon through just before midnight Sunday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mid-morning today through early this evening, sustained winds up
to 20-25 mph with wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected mid-morning
Saturday through late Saturday afternoon.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
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   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

MSZ032-038-012015-
Winston MS-Choctaw MS-
138 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Choctaw
and central Winston Counties through 215 PM CST...

At 137 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Center Ridge, or 10 miles west of Louisville, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Ackerman, Betheden and Millcreek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for central,
northeastern and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 8887 3297 8922 3306 8932 3318 8932
      3339 8916 3334 8909 3329 8908 3329 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 224DEG 38KT 3311 8924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
317 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

MSZ039-045-046-012200-
Kemper MS-Neshoba MS-Noxubee MS-
317 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Noxubee, northwestern Kemper and northeastern Neshoba Counties
through 400 PM CST...

At 317 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bluff Springs, or 8 miles south of Preston, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bluff Springs around 320 PM CST.
  Preston around 325 PM CST.
  De Kalb around 330 PM CST.
  Gholson around 335 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for east central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 8890 3286 8905 3292 8894 3292 8893
      3293 8893 3293 8882 3299 8881 3309 8864
      3284 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 239DEG 39KT 3277 8887

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JNE