River Flood Warning 53, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
656 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms currently moving across the area this
morning. A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at sites and
expect this to continue over the next few hours. Expect most sites
to become VFR after 20-21Z. /15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight:

The primary concern in the short-term is for severe weather
including damaging wind gusts, large hail (already received
reports of 1.5 to 2 inch hail), and possible tornadoes. A look at
the regional radar mosaic shows the features driving the severe
weather risk pretty clearly early this morning. A lifting warm
front separates an air mass with sub-50-degree dew points and the
warm, moist Gulf air with dew points pushing 65-70 degrees. Storms
along this moisture boundary have been severe, with large hail
reported in several locations. To the west - across southern
Arkansas and northwest Louisiana, a bowed out MCS will race east
across the forecast area through early this afternoon. This line
has the potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes where wind
shear is favorably aligned with the storm motions. As the morning
progresses, this line will encounter a shear profile with
effective storm-relative helicity of 300-400 m2/s2. Storms along
the line (or any well-aligned clusters east of the line) could
quickly produce tornadoes as we head through the morning. The
threat for severe weather should decrease by the afternoon as the
line races through, but some chance for storms producing heavy
rain may linger across the far south through the afternoon as the
southern portion of the line loses steam and becomes parallel to
the mean flow aloft. Localized flooding is possible from heavy
rain rates or where multiple storms move across an area. The
weather should clear out this evening, but without a front passing
through the area, temperatures should remain mild heading into
tomorrow.

The rest of this week into the weekend:

We're still watching tomorrow for a conditional severe weather
threat. The expectation is that today's squall line should
overturn the atmosphere with limited recovery before tomorrow. A
cold front moving into the region could, however, cause enough
lift to tap into steeper lapse rates aloft see some thunderstorms
develop. Thunderstorm chances will be greatest across the
southeastern half of the area, which aligns with the position of
the front by about mid-day tomorrow. For now will keep a
"Marginal Risk" for severe storms in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
text and graphics for tomorrow.

A broad upper-level low pressure system will slowly move east
across the country through the weekend, keeping temperatures
cooler and weather drier across our region. Thursday and Friday
could be breezy, and Friday night or Saturday night could see a
chance for some frost in the colder northeastern Mississippi
hills.

Early next week:

The next upper-level trough is expected to begin taking shape late
in the weekend over the western CONUS, and by Monday/Tuesday, rain
chances begin to return to our area as shortwaves eject to the
east and interact with returning Gulf moisture. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  65  80  46 /  99   6  56  15
Meridian      79  65  84  47 / 100  17  48  35
Vicksburg     82  66  78  46 /  79   5  43   8
Hattiesburg   81  68  84  50 / 100  22  46  27
Natchez       81  66  81  46 /  87   5  35   9
Greenville    77  64  72  46 /  78   6  34   8
Greenwood     77  65  75  45 /  90   5  44   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
450 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>066-072>074-052200-
Ashley-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-
Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
450 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will move across the entire area from late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are likely,
with damaging wind gusts up to 80mph and a few tornadoes
possible. Please reference the graphics for more specific timing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Tuesday, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The severe weather threat Tuesday morning will begin to diminish
into Tuesday afternoon. There could be a threat for additional
storms and severe weather possible Wednesday afternoon,
especially over eastern Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts and hail
of quarter to golf ball size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>039-052200-
Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
450 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will move across the entire area from late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms, with
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, are possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out. Please reference the graphics for more
specific timing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Tuesday, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The severe weather threat Tuesday morning will begin to diminish
into Tuesday afternoon. There could be a threat for additional
storms and severe weather possible Wednesday afternoon,
especially over eastern Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts and hail
of quarter to golf ball size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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