River Flood Warning 112, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
924 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

A surface ridge axis is building eastward along the Gulf Coast
this morning, with continuing moderate westerly cool/dry
advection. This will provide for continued dry and mostly clear
conditions today. No forecast updates are planned at this time.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Today & Tonight...Much drier & cooler conditions are expected
through the aftn. 00Z synoptic & GOES-E water vapor analysis
indicates deep longwave trough analyzed over the Great Plains,
with cold core moving into the Mid W. Ridge axis is analyzed off
to the E over the Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, with subtropical
ridge centered over the Bahamas. Sfc front is progged to move E
into the Atlantic seaboard, while subsidence & reinforcing dry
front will move in by the aftn hours. With cooler thermo (i.e.
single digit C. @ 850mb/925mb), highs near to slightly below
normal in the mid to upper 50s, with warmest in the S. W-SW
gradient winds, with brief gusts up to around 20mph, are expected
this aftn.

Tonight...Mean ridging will persist over the Gulf of AK & N
Atlantic near Greenland. This synoptic pattern favors very slow
migration to the E & mean longwave trough over a majority of the
nation. Zonal flow aloft will intensify over the Plains into Mid S
to TN Valley/Appalachians, with continued W-NW CAA persisting.
Weak 1019mb sfc high will build in, while pressure gradient/winds
will relax into the evening hours. Lows near to slightly below
normal are expected, in the low-mid 30s. Can't rule out some frost
& a brief freeze, especially in cool, drainage areas in NE MS.
/DC/

Friday through next Wednesday...Colder and more seasonable
conditions are expected across the region through the long term
portion of the forecast.  A closed low pressure system will be in
the process of moving east across the Great Lakes region Friday
through the weekend.  As a shortwave rounds the base of the trough
on Saturday, moisture aloft will lift back into the CWA.  Despite
plenty of dry air at the surface, with plenty of ascent lifting
northeast across the region, some light rain will be possible across
mainly far southern portions of the CWA on Saturday.

High pressure will build back into the region Saturday night into
Sunday, maintaining cold conditions across the CWA.  Conditions will
begin moderating up a bit each day beginning Monday and continuing
through Wednesday under easterly flow.  During this time, a series
of disturbances will track east across the region.

The first of these will move across the area on Monday, sparking
showers across the area through the course of the day and into
Monday night.  Rain will exit the CWA through Tuesday morning with
dry weather returning Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.  The
next disturbance will approach the region late Wednesday night.
While the Wednesday daytime period looks dry, rain chances currently
look to be increasing across the forecast area late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours across the
region. W-SW gradient winds up to 15mph, with brief gusts around
20mph, are expected today, light into the evening hours & similar
but slightly decreased into Fri aftn. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  35  56  37 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      56  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     57  34  56  36 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   60  37  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       57  37  57  38 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    52  34  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     52  34  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/DC/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
250 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
152100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
250 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 AM CST THU DEC 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW JOHNS             32.15N 89.89W
12/14/2022                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 GREENHOUSES AND 2 HAY BARNS WERE DAMAGED
            IN THE AREA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROCK
            HILL RD AND MS HIGHWAY 18. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
917 AM CST THU DEC 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TORNADO          1 SSW CRANFIELD         31.53N 91.22W
12/14/2022                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS TIME OF PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT
            FROM 1 SSW CRANFIELD. EMERGENCY MANAGER
            REPORTED SMALL DEBRIS ON LIBERTY RD. 8
            RESIDENTS WERE REPORTED TRAPPED INSIDE A
            HOME ON 24 NATIONS RD, CRANFIELD AREA IN
            ADAMS COUNTY. FIRST RESPONDERS ARE IN ROUTE
            TO ASSIST.

&&

DL