Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Friday:

Convection will continue to slowly drift north
across the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon
and into early this evening. Heavy downpours potentially resulting
in flooding, will again pose the biggest concern with this
activity. As daytime heating wanes, this activity will likewise
gradually erode through the evening. However, with such a deeply
moist airmass and continued broad troughing across the region,
showers and perhaps an isolated storm can't be ruled out overnight
as lows fall into the 70s.

Though continuing to weaken, the low pressure system just to our
west will continue to promote the development of showers, along with
a few thunderstorms, across the forecast area through Friday
afternoon. A "limited" threat for flash flooding will exist on
Friday due to both the potential for heavy rainfall rates, slow
movement of convection, and saturated ground conditions across much
of the area.  This is especially the case across central and
southern portions of the CWA. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and muggy
conditions will persist as highs only top out in the middle 80s.
/19/

Tomorrow night through Thursday:

An unsettled pattern will continue across the region this weekend
into much of next week. The Lower Mississippi Valley will remain
situated on the western flank of a sub-tropical Bermuda ridge
extending into the southeast states. This will keep deep-layer
southerly return flow locked in across the region as several upper
disturbances swing through the Great Plains and into the Mississippi
Valley. For this weekend, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
will remain focused roughly along and south of I-20 on Saturday
before returning area wide on Sunday. The primary focus will
continue to be isolated flash flooding given extremely wet
antecedent conditions and the continued presence of 2"+ PWATs. Any
torrential tropical downpours could easily result in a few instances
of localized flash flooding. Will keep the HWO/graphics clear for
now as any flooding threat will be confined to focused convective
precipitation maximums. Moist profiles with poor lapse rates and a
dearth of downdraft CAPE will preclude a threat for severe weather,
but a few sub-severe water loaded microbursts cannot be ruled out
with any deeper cores.

Global guidance begins to diverge as we head into early next week
with regards to the evolution of a northern stream shortwave trough
ejecting out of the Inter-Mountain West and into the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF and ICON solutions amplify the trough as it swings
through the Midwest and pushes a surface cold front into the Lower
Mississippi Valley around mid week. This scenario would keep high
rain chances in place early week before scouring out deep moisture
and finally bringing some relief from persistent rains. The GFS and
CMC solutions, on the other hand, close the trough into an upper low
that drops south into the Central Plains/Mississippi Valley, which
in turn keeps a moist and active pattern locked in. Regardless, at
least scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are expected at the start of next work week with
forecast confidence decreasing thereafter. Will keep the forecast in
line with the national model blend for now until guidance comes into
better agreement on the upper pattern. /TW/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Thanks to an abundance of low clouds across the region and
scattered convection developing, a mix of MVFR/IFR will persist at
most area TAF sites through the afternoon. While the majority of
convection will dissipate later this evening, low ceilings will
continue to plague much of the area, resulting in a continuation
of MVFR/IFR flight categories at most sites overnight and into
Friday morning. Winds today will vary at times from the east and
southeast between 5-8 knots, decreasing to between 3-5 knots
tonight. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  85  72  87 /  46  73  34  68
Meridian      71  84  72  87 /  52  71  34  61
Vicksburg     72  86  72  86 /  30  56  25  50
Hattiesburg   72  84  73  87 /  59  86  40  77
Natchez       72  84  72  86 /  36  74  32  66
Greenville    71  88  73  87 /  12  28  16  37
Greenwood     71  87  72  89 /  15  30  19  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ042>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ016-023>026.

AR...None.

&&

TW/05/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>036-261100-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ007>009-015-023-MSZ037>042-261100-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Franklin LA-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon and again Friday

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ016-024>026-MSZ043>066-072>074-261100-
Madison LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

Areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor to moderate river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW LUCERN             32.55N 89.26W
08/24/2022                   NEWTON             MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MS 492 WAS PARTIALLY WASHED OUT JUST EAST OF
            CONEHATTA PROSPECT RD.

&&

DL