Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
222 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday night: Weak upr lvl trough axis draped
across the Lower MS River Valley has been a focus for slow-moving
shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Within zone of MLCAPE
approaching 2000 J/KG, a few storms have briefly shown decent
cores. This could result in very small hail or brief gusty winds
accompanying the heavy rain but lapse rates are rather weak so do
not expect any sustained/severe storms through this evening.
Overnight, moist boundary layer conditions and calm winds will
result in low clouds and patchy fog.

As the trough axis continues to drift south by Thursday, better
rain/storm chances will shift south and east toward the Gulf
Coast. Similar environmental conditions will support slow-moving
convection which will elevate the threat for localized flash
flooding. Temperatures (highs) will run a few degrees below normal
due to cloud cover and coverage of convection. /DJN.83/

Friday through next Wednesday: On Friday, the Short Term Ensemble
Forecast (SREF) depicts an expansive 500 mb ridge and associated
area of high pressure over the western two-thirds of the CONUS
while a 500 mb trough extends across the Northeast and down the
Appalachians. This synoptic setup will be responsible for a cold
front pushing through MS over the course of Friday into Saturday.
The lack of upper-level dynamics with the FROPA suggests a low
threat for widespread severe storms, although some strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon and
evening as the SREF is progging ample SBCAPE and PWATs around
1.75" to 2.00". Gusty to damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be potential threats with
any strong to severe storms. Carrying the greatest PoPs along and
south of I-20 (nearest the front). Saturday and Sunday will be
similar forecast-wise, though PoPs should trend lower as the front
and associated moisture axis are pushed farther south by the area
of high pressure spreading across the Plains and into the
ArkLaMiss.

The CWA will be under northwest flow aloft Monday through
Wednesday, which makes PoPs a bit more difficult to pin down as
convection could be largely driven/modulated by vort maxes
traversing the flow (these disturbances are not always well-
predicted by models). For now, Monday is shaping up to be mainly
dry, and have gone with area-wide slight chance to chance PoPs
Tuesday and Wednesday given the aforementioned uncertainty in
where convection will be focused. As far as temperatures are
concerned through the period, the relatively "cooler" post-front
airmass will moderate and warm into the lower 90s to mid-90s on
Monday and Tuesday. /Martin/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Scattered to numerous showers and storms blossoming over much of
the area. Pronounced northward-moving outflow boundary over SW
AL/far SE MS may have diminished storm threat for KPIB/KHBG area.
Otherwise, very moist airmass and slow-moving nature of storms
suggest heavy rain the primary threat which could lower vsbys (and
cigs) down below MVFR. Tried to capture this in TEMPO group for
KGTR, KJAN and KHKS through late afternoon. Overnight, low clouds
and fog expected to develop with widespread IFR cigs/vsby
expected. Localized <IFR likely, especially closer to the
ArkLaMiss area. After 14-15z Thursday, lower clouds should be
breaking up with a few showers/storms popping back up btwn 16-18z.
/DJN.83/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  87  71  89 /  56  85  27  58
Meridian      71  88  71  90 /  18  84  24  56
Vicksburg     71  87  71  90 /  32  75  24  46
Hattiesburg   72  87  71  89 /  44  90  20  76
Natchez       71  86  71  89 /  40  81  28  62
Greenville    71  87  71  89 /  49  62  17  21
Greenwood     71  89  71  92 /  39  67  21  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
353 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
110900-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
353 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas through early evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
157 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

MSZ027-101930-
Carroll MS-
157 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Carroll
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Coila, or near Black Hawk, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  North Carrollton and Malmaison around 230 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 8979 3353 8979 3331 8988 3333 9008
      3364 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 190DEG 11KT 3340 8997

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
236 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

MSZ026-028-102000-
Grenada MS-Montgomery MS-
236 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Grenada and
northwestern Montgomery Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elliott, or near Grenada, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Gore Springs around 245 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8977 3387 8951 3385 8951 3361 8965
      3361 8977 3362 8979 3368 8979 3368 8986
      3390 8978 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 200DEG 32KT 3372 8973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
348 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

MSZ043-049-050-102130-
Scott MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
348 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rankin,
west central Scott and southeastern Madison Counties through 430 PM
CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pisgah, or 11 miles west of Morton, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Rankin, west central Scott and southeastern Madison Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 9002 3257 8972 3230 8973 3236 8996
      3243 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 007DEG 6KT 3242 8985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJ