Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
702 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF discussion:

Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue to affect parts of
the forecast area through around 03Z Monday, with some possibility
for impacts at a few TAF sites. Additional SHRA may develop by
around 12Z in parts of the area, but better chances for TSRA will
likely hold off until after 18Z Monday. Mainly VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period apart from storms, but cannot
rule out the potential for patches of low stratus and/or BR/FG to
develop in the early morning hours. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...

The tropical MCV is slowly weakening over the ArkLaMiss Delta
region today, but it continues to serve as a driving factor for
increased moisture and convective activity. In regards to the
atmospheric pattern, it has been pretty consistent these last few
days. With the amount of moisture that's out there, locally heavy
downpours with showers and storms will be possible. The northwest
saw a good amount of rain this morning thanks to the lingering
low. CAM guidance tries to hint at another small bullseye over
more central MS tomorrow morning so will have to watch for trends
this evening and the overnight hours, may need to add a 'Limited'
for flooding with later forecast package. Just like previous days,
storm activity will start to wane around sunset but can't rule
out a lingering shower or two after. Expect mostly cloudy skies
with lows falling into the low 70s.

Afternoon diurnal activity will continue for the holiday. Morning
shower redevelopment will also be the case along with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning in the early
afternoon and lasting through the evening. With influence of this
weakening tropical vortex, dewpoints will climb into the mid to
upper 70s making conditions muggy. Combined with surface
temperatures in the 90s, heat index values will reach between
100-105F especially across the NW MS Delta region, and will
continue the current heat graphic in the HWO. Lots of outside
activity occurs on the 4th of July, so staying hydrated and cool
as possible are good suggestions. /JNE/

Monday night through Saturday night: The subtropical ridge is still
forecast to intensify over the lower MS Valley region as we go
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This means
that a seasonably hot July weather pattern will be in full force
over the forecast area by the end of the long range period. Heat
stress and diurnal shower and thunderstorm coverage will be the
primary weather concerns, and while dry bulb temperatures don't
appear they will be especially hot, the stagnant airmass and recent
wetter than normal weather will result in increasing boundary layer
humidity.

Heat indices will be cranking up to more dangerous levels as we go
from mid to late week, and likely even moreso by the weekend. Given
how much evapotranspiration is taking place, heat stress could ramp
up quickly with the hotter temperatures. So persons in the ArkLaMiss
will want to monitor the outlooks closely as guidance is indicating
that we may reach significant levels of dangerous heat that
correspond with an excessive heat warning. Have held off on going
that high in the HWO at this point as there is still plenty of time
to monitor trends. Otherwise, disorganized mainly afternoon and
evening showers and storms can be expected each day with a few
strong to severe microbursts possible during peak heating. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  90  74  91 /  42  54  12  53
Meridian      74  90  74  92 /  23  63  17  61
Vicksburg     74  91  74  92 /  27  34   5  32
Hattiesburg   75  93  74  92 /  33  61  17  70
Natchez       74  93  74  91 /  27  27   6  39
Greenville    73  91  75  92 /  33  38   3  19
Greenwood     74  91  75  93 /  34  55   6  32

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/JNE/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
334 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>043-047-048-
053-054-059>065-072>074-042045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-
Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
334 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Monday

Heat stress will be on the increase for Independence Day. Heat
indices will climb to near 105 for much of the area during the
afternoon. Residents are encouraged to stay hydrated and avoid
strenuous outdoor activities, especially from the late morning
through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Dangerous levels of heat are expected for the remainder of the
week, especially as we go into late week and next weekend.
Persons in the outlook area should plan to limit outdoor
activity during the late morning and afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

MSZ044>046-049>052-055>058-066-042045-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Jones-
334 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Dangerous levels of heat are expected for the remainder of the
week, especially as we go into late week and next weekend.
Persons in the outlook area should plan to limit outdoor
activity during the late morning and afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

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