Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Jackson, MS

278 
WGUS74 KJAN 031639
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1139 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

ARC003-031800-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220703T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley AR-
1139 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR ASHLEY COUNTY...

At 1139 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with moderate 
to heavy rain continued to move across the warned area. Between 2.5 
and 6 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 
to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Crossett, Hamburg, North Crossett, West Crossett, Portland, 
  Montrose, Parkdale, Fountain Hill, Berlin, Old Milo and Snyder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 9146 3301 9169 3301 9205 3305 9211
      3310 9214 3315 9211 3316 9214 3321 9213
      3321 9208 3324 9209 3326 9205 3328 9204
      3328 9200 3330 9200 3330 9198 3335 9199
      3335 9197 3338 9196 3340 9199 3339 9146

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EC

647 
WGUS74 KJAN 031757
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

ARC003-031807-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220703T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley AR-
1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
ASHLEY COUNTY...

The heavy rain has diminished in intensity, and flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3318 9146 3301 9169 3301 9205 3305 9211
      3310 9214 3315 9211 3316 9214 3321 9213
      3321 9208 3324 9209 3326 9205 3328 9204
      3328 9200 3330 9200 3330 9198 3335 9199
      3335 9197 3338 9196 3340 9199 3339 9146

$$

EC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
920 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A flash flood warning is still in effect this morning for Ashley
and Chicot counties due to showers and thunderstorms training
associated with the surface low previously described. MRMS
guidance has rainfall amounts reaching 2.7" in a upcoming cell
tracking towards those counties from the west. The rain chances
looks to stay more north at least until the start of the afternoon
once diurnal heating commences and rain and storms will become
more widespread. Otherwise no changes were made to the previous
forecast. /NP/JNE/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: In many ways, the forecast remains stuck on
repeat. We remain in a very moist airmass with PW upwards of 2-2.5".
We are once again starting off the day with patches of low clouds
and fog, especially across the south/east. The primary difference
for today will be the location of the pesky remnant surface low,
which is now roughly over the ArkLaMiss Delta as of this morning.
CAM guidance has consistently keyed in on kicking off localized
early morning convection within close proximity of the low, similar
to what occurred over northwest LA/east TX yesterday morning. HREF
LPMM suggests potential for localized totals of 5-6"+ over a fairly
confined area, which isn't shocking given PW near 2.5". Given this,
we will continue to highlight a limited flood threat for that area
through the morning hours. Elsewhere, convection should become
widespread during the afternoon across the remainder of the area.
Again some locally heavy downpours and brief gusty winds will be
possible. Activity will decrease in coverage by mid evening, with
the potential again for redevelopment during the early morning hours
Monday near the surface low center over north MS as the broken
record spins on. /DL/

Monday through Sunday. Old boundaries and a few
disturbances over the next week will keep a chance of shower and
thunderstorms in the forecast nearly every day. Dewpoints will
remain in the lower to mid 70s through the week, where atmospheric
moisture will be elevated with tropical remnants over the area and
south/southeasterly winds prevailing. Looking for rain to
linger/redevelop overnight and the potential for heavy downpours to
remain possible for much of the week.

The upper ridge builds in from the west Wednesday, with some
slightly drier air moving into upper levels. Models continue to show
heat increasing through the week, with heat index values near 110 by
the weekend, especially west/north of the Natchez Trace, where the
upper ridge will hover. Heat advisories will likely be needed for
portions of the area from mid to late week into next weekend.

The next boundary moves into the area around Sunday, where the
region may finally get a brief airmass change. Dewpoint values may
fall into the lower 70's, but high temperatures should remain near
normal. Overall, no big changes to the forecast through the
extended. Stuck pretty close to guidance for temps and pops.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Patchy LIFR/IFR low clouds and fog this morning will diminish over
there next few hours. SHRA/TS will impact southeast AR/northeast
LA/northwest MS, possibly including GLH/GWO, this morning. Then
coverage of convection will increase across the remainder of the
area later in the daytime. Brief ceiling/visby reductions are
possible in +RA along with brief strong wind gusts. SHRA will
decrease in coverage around and after sunset tonight. Additional
patchy low ceiling and fog development is possible late tonight
into early Monday morning, especially across south/east MS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  74  90  74 /  47  38  50  22
Meridian      89  73  91  74 /  61  44  64  31
Vicksburg     89  74  91  74 /  41  24  28  12
Hattiesburg   92  74  92  75 /  47  33  62  31
Natchez       90  74  92  74 /  31  20  25  10
Greenville    86  74  91  75 /  80  29  34  12
Greenwood     88  74  91  75 /  68  31  46  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JAN/JNE/DL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-040915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
411 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This morning

Localized flash flooding is possible through midday, especially
in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Hot weather will return to the forecast area Monday. Increasing
heat stress is possible, with heat index values near 105 degrees
over most of the area. Residents are encouraged to stay hydrated
and avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially from the late
morning through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Dangerous heat stress is expected to continue through the end of
the week, with heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees for much
of the area. Residents should avoid prolonged outdoor activity,
especially from the late morning through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-040915-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
411 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Hot weather will return to the forecast area Monday. Increasing
heat stress is possible, with heat index values near 105 degrees
over most of the area. Residents are encouraged to stay hydrated
and avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially from the late
morning through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Dangerous heat stress is expected to continue through the end of
the week, with heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees for much
of the area. Residents should avoid prolonged outdoor activity,
especially from the late morning through the afternoon hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
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...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html