Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Jackson, MS

864 
WGUS74 KJAN 140336
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1036 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

MSC035-073-091-140430-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220414T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-Marion MS-
1036 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR MARION, FORREST AND LAMAR COUNTIES...

At 1036 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of 
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
possible, mainly in southeast Marion and southern Forrest County. 
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hattiesburg, Petal, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, Kokomo, Holly 
  Springs, Purvis, Sumrall, Pine Ridge, Oak Grove, Improve, Pinebur, 
  Rawls Springs, Pickwick, Sunrise, Mclaurin, Morgantown and 
  Macedonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 9003 3143 8958 3143 8915 3110 8915
      3108 8992 3113 8994 3113 9001 3118 9001
      3118 9003 3126 9004

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DC

097 
WGUS74 KJAN 140426
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

MSC035-073-091-140436-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220414T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-Marion MS-
1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
MARION, FORREST AND LAMAR COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3131 9003 3143 8958 3143 8915 3110 8915
      3108 8992 3113 8994 3113 9001 3118 9001
      3118 9003 3126 9004

$$

DL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
727 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. Also, as a line of severe
storms continues to push east through the forecast area tonight,
we will continue to clear western portions of the ongoing Tornado
Watch as the severe threat ends from west to east. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF discussion:

A line of severe TSRA continues to move east across the forecast
area to begin the TAF period. The line will bring periods of +TSRA
with IFR visibility and variable ceilings as it moves to the east.
Gusty winds will be possible before, during, and after
thunderstorms move through each site. Winds will ultimately turn
out of the northwest or north after a cold front moves through in
the wake of storms. Eventually ceilings should lift to VFR range.
/NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...

An upper-level trough will eject east from the Texas panhandle and a
surface low will develop out of that pushing across the Great Lakes
region. This low will drag a cold front through the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening. I like to call this a wet set up
because there will be tremendous amount of low-level moisture. Close
to if not right at record breaking PWs between 1.5-2.0 in. Good low-
level moisture combined with daytime heating will allow for some
good instability. Guidance has struggled over these last couple of
days with storm mode. Initially the environment was conducive for
strictly super cell activity but as of right now, we are still
capped and things will evolve more with the front when it pushes
through making storm mode more linear across the south. Further
north, where the better shear and airmass is, conditions are still
favorable for discrete organized super cells and this is where the
main concern lies for larger hail and strong tornadoes.

With high PWs, the threat for flash flooding will be possible
especially if cells begin to train over areas. Will continue with
current flash flooding graphic in the HWO. Wind has started to pick
up and some TAF site have already gusted to 35kts. Winds will
continue to be strong as we mix out this afternoon into early
evening. Winds will start to decrease the after we get into the
evening/night. Will continue the latest wind graphic that depicts
the 'Limited' and 'Elevated'. The strongest winds will be across the
northwest.

While we are advertising a 'Moderate' and 'Enhanced' risk, the
threats are the same for both categories. Tornadoes (a few may be
string), hail (some large up to golf ball), flooding, and damaging
winds will all be of concern across the region. In regards to
timing, now until about 9PM for the west, 4-5PM until about 11PM for
central areas, and 6PM-1AM for areas in the east. It is suggested
that you have multiple ways to receive warnings and always stay
weather aware!

As the front moves out so will the activity. By Thursday morning,
the activity should be east of the region and dry air will move in
keeping us dry for the remainder of Thursday. /JNE/

Friday through Wednesday...

In the back half of this week, the focus for periods of showers and
thunderstorms around our region will be quasi-stationary front
lingering around the Gulf Coast region. Flow aloft over the southern
CONUS will be mostly zonal, with moist and more unstable air south
of the frontal boundary. This setup is likely to see a few MCSs
develop along the boundary as subtle shortwaves ripple through the
flow aloft. Friday night into Saturday is likely to be the first of
these potential events. Widespread severe weather is not certain,
but a few stronger storms could develop during this time frame.
Beyond Friday, each day generally has a chance for showers and
storms across at least some portion of the forecast area. There is
decent model agreement that a more pronounced shortwave moving east
across the CONUS Monday may bring in some drier air and high
pressure for at least early next week. Temperatures will obviously
be warmer south of the front, but will generally be around typical
values for this time of the year. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       49  75  49  81 /  95   1   4  14
Meridian      53  76  47  82 /  95   7   5  14
Vicksburg     49  75  50  82 /  85   0   3  12
Hattiesburg   58  76  51  81 /  93  18   6  18
Natchez       50  76  51  81 /  86   3   4  17
Greenville    45  71  49  79 /  72   0   2   6
Greenwood     45  72  49  80 /  93   0   2   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035.

LA...None.
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ075.

&&

NF/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

ARZ074-MSZ026>028-035-142015-
Ashley-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Humphreys-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely through
this evening, with strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms
could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up
to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to strong winds apart
from thunderstorm activity. Sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind
gusts around 35 mph will be possible through this evening.
Driving high profile vehicles could be difficult.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025-034-142015-
Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely through
this evening, with strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms
could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up
to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible through this
evening due to strong winds apart from thunderstorm activity.
Sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph with potential wind
gusts over 40 mph are expected. Travel will also be difficult for
those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ029>033-036>066-072-073-142015-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely through this evening. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail
up to golf ball size, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be
strong.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to strong winds apart
from thunderstorm activity. Sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind
gusts around 35 mph will be possible through this evening.
Driving high profile vehicles could be difficult.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ074-142015-
Forrest-
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening. These
storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to
60 mph, hail to the size of quarters, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to strong winds apart
from thunderstorm activity. Sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind
gusts around 35 mph will be possible through this evening.
Driving high profile vehicles could be difficult.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE MYRLEVILLE        32.70N 90.22W
04/13/2022                   YAZOO              MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG SCOTLAND ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
917 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE LINWOOD           32.71N 90.10W
04/13/2022                   YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 16 NEAR THE BIG
            BLACK RIVER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
920 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLOOD            1 WSW CLEVELAND         33.74N 90.74W
04/13/2022                   BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SOME STREETS IN THE CLEVELAND AREA WERE
            FLOODED.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W STONEWALL           32.13N 88.86W
04/13/2022                   CLARKE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 11.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
928 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEULAH                  33.79N 90.98W
04/13/2022                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON RAILROAD AVER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHAW                    33.60N 90.78W
04/13/2022                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN SHAW.

&&