Wind Advisory 2, NWS Northern Indiana

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

112 
WWUS73 KIWX 161926
NPWIWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
226 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

OHZ005-016-024-025-170000-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220217T1000Z/
Henry-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, 
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert, 
Ohio City, Lima, Spencerville, and Bluffton
226 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and 
  northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
015-170000-
/O.CON.KIWX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220217T0000Z/
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-
Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-
Jay-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Paulding-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend, 
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, 
Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville, 
Ligonier, Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake,
Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, 
Rochester, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone, 
Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne, New Haven, 
Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, 
Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington, 
Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City, 
Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Niles, 
Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, 
Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, 
Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, Mendon, Coldwater, Bronson, 
Hillsdale, Jonesville, Litchfield, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon, 
Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville, 
Paulding, Antwerp, and Payne
226 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 /126 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and 
  northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 7 PM EST /6 
  PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

711 
WWUS73 KIWX 170143
NPWIWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
843 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

OHZ005-016-024-025-170245-
/O.CAN.KIWX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220217T1000Z/
Henry-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, 
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert, 
Ohio City, Lima, Spencerville, and Bluffton
843 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The potential for wind gusts to 45 mph or greater appears to have
diminshed, therefore the wind advisory has been cancelled. Some 
wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible overnight. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1244 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

Temperatures will begin a warming trend tonight through Wednesday as
as widespread rainfall develops by Wednesday evening and
continues into Thursday. Cold air undercuts Thursday later
Thursday morning through afternoon resulting in a changeover to
snow with a period of freezing rain and sleet in between. A flood
watch has been issued for the the combination of heavy rain,
snowmelt and frozen ground. Accumulating snows are likely on the
back side of this system across northern Indiana and southern
Michigan Thursday with a winter storm watch in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

Strong ridging develops this period ahead of potent srn stream sw
disturbance ejecting out of the sw US Thu night. Downstream flood of
moisture expected as gomex opens wide in presence of 70kt H85 LLJ.
Expect rain will develop quickly by mid evening timed with
encroaching sfc frontal zone extending southward from nrn stream
wave skirting Hudson Bay. Arrival of low 40 dewpoints and warm sfc
temps near 50 tomorrow will quickly ripen existing snowpack with
rapid melt expected Wed night as heavy rain overspreads the area.
Widespread flooding likely to result given current frost depths.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

Primary fcst difficulty is track of ejecting srn stream cyclone Thu
with continued widely differing model camps owing to differing nrn
stream intensity solutions and southward suppression of sfc frontal
zone. Undercutting polar airmass of great concern Thu aftn
especially nw half of cwa as current timing suggests this area drops
well below freezing ahead of newd pivoting deformation zone which
carries overhead through Thu evening. Depth of cold layer far nw
suggests mainly snow there with potential for 6+. Warm nose
positioned sewd of there points to a narrow icing risk although this
is likely dominated in duration by sleet versus freezing rain given
warm nose weakens quickly late morning into early aftn w-e before
turning over to a period of accumulating snow. Combo of mixed precip
types would certainly warrant an advisory yet srn/ern extent of that
threat still not pinned down well. Regardless this should in turn
reduce higher potential snow amounts some northwest with brief/early
Thu mix. Any further turn of ncep solutions toward non-ncep
solutions would in turn lessen mix threat and yield far higher snow
accums across a large area (northwest half). Thus will hedge nw
zones with watch issuance this aftn as travel impacts will likely be
significant Thu aftn/eve northwest.

Strong/rapid influx of cold air wraps in in wake of this sys and
will activate a good yet brief lake response late Thu night. Brevity
of best fetch/synoptic moisture will limit potential but certainly a
few inches likely from Berrien south into Marshall.

Cold ridge follows Fri-Sat with glancing clipper through the nrn
lakes and perhaps a few flurries late Fri/early Sat. Pattern aloft
breaks sharply warmer thereafter Sun-Mon as deep wrn troughing
redevelops with rain possible by late Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1244 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

Extreme south-southwest flow at 2kft sampled by VWP at KLOT/KILX
at 70 knots. Ramped low level flow in advance of strong Central
Plains system will provide an extended period of LLWS for northern
Indiana. Snowpack and forecast surface based inversion should
provide only partial mixdown with surface gusts to about 35 knots
midday. Associated frontal boundary nears this evening, providing
richer low level moisture and lift. Anticipate rain to blossom
across northwest Indiana/KSBN by early this evening with
conditions deteriorating into IFR late in the forecast period. A
slower evolution at KFWA as the frontal zone sags slowly southeast
across northern Indiana.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
     INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for INZ006>008-012-014-016.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for INZ003>005.

MI...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
     MIZ078>081.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MIZ080-081.

     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for MIZ077>079.

OH...Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
407 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

INZ009-013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-161000-
De Kalb-Pulaski-Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Williams-Fulton OH-
Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
407 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

The timing of the arrival of the cold air is still uncertain, but
some snow and ice accumulations are possible across the area late
Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ004-005-MIZ078-079-161000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
407 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Cold air wrapping in Thursday morning will allow a change over to
heavy snow. A brief period of icing is possible as rain changes to
snow. Significant snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are possible
along with a light glazing of ice accumulation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ006>008-012-014-016-MIZ080-081-161000-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-Starke-Marshall-Kosciusko-Branch-Hillsdale-
407 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 /307 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Cold air wrapping in late morning into early afternoon will allow a
change over to heavy snow. A period of icing is possible as rain
changes to snow. Significant snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are
possible along with up to one tenth ice accumulation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-MIZ077-161000-
La Porte-Berrien-
407 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 /307 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

A warming trend from Tuesday into Thursday combined with rainfall
Wednesday into Thursday may allow for rises on area rivers and
increased standing water on roadways. River flooding will be
possible late this week into next weekend.

Cold air wrapping in Thursday morning will allow a change over to
heavy snow. A brief period of icing is possible as rain changes to
snow. Significant snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are possible
along with a light glazing of ice accumulation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-161000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
407 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.