Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
404 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through Monday
night across the area. Locally heavy rain will be the greatest
concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Narrow bands of showers and storms have popped here and there in
a moderately unstable but poorly sheared environment resulting in
mainly very heavy rain given the tropical airmass in place and
slow movement of any storms. By in large coverage has been
isolated to scattered at best with greatest concentration
associated with a MCV working across central portions of the area.
At this point main threat will be localized hydro concerns into
early evening.

In the wake of the MCV further development may be limited with
any forcing left to numerous outflow boundaries that will be
around the area. Chc pops warranted into the evening with
potential uptick on convection overnight into Monday morning
possible as several weak disturbances combined with increasing low
level jet and continued influx of even richer airmass (PWATs well
over 2") all set the stage for increased hydro issues. While many
models lean towards the north for greatest chances nearly
anywhere could have the threat and just not enough confidence to
go higher than chc pops right now. Areas of very heavy rain and
localized flooding are a distinct possibility with those areas
that experienced heavy rainfall this afternoon at the greatest
risk to kick things off. Some discussion took place on issuing a
Flood Watch through Monday evening but given the myriad of
possibilities and fact that most areas can take an inch or 2 with
little issue have opted to hold off for now.

Cold front will begin to sweep slowly SE into the area Mon
afternoon through Monday night with increased forcing likely to
spark off more widespread convection. Depending on impacts from
overnight storms, sufficient instability could exist for a low
end wind threat from any stronger storms. Greater concern will
likely remain with hydro. Backed away some from the cat pops but
could need to be re-introduced.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Frontal boundary will continue to sink slowly south to start the
period. Blend of models has kept pops going a bit longer in the SE
areas into Tue night and given lack of real strong wave to continue
it's southward push am inclined to think the slower trend is
reasonable. Dewpoints will be on the downward trend, highest in the
SE (mid to upper 60s) so maintenance of a thunder threat along with
locally heavy rain is warranted.

More comfortable dewpoints will arrive (60s vs 70s) with dry
conditions then dominating likely for much of the period. GFS/EC
do still show some shower potential on Thursday with another weak
disturbance and front from the north but opted to keep things dry
for now. Chances could creep back up again towards the end of the
period with the next system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

A period of lower flight conditions into MVFR is possible as the
chance for showers and thunderstorms increase. The main threat
from the thunderstorms would be heavy rain though a brief gust to
around 30 or 35 kts cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms would push
through SBN early in the TAF period before reaching FWA between 19
and 21z. Additional chances for thunderstorms also exist after 2z
at SBN again with the same threats listed above. FWA would come a
couple hours later.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
417 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-082030-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
417 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 /317 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall localized
flooding will be possible into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected at times from Monday to Tuesday
night. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-MIZ077-082030-
La Porte-Berrien-
417 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 /317 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022/

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall localized
flooding will be possible into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected at times from Monday to Tuesday
night. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-082030-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
417 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There are chances for thunderstorms through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

There are chances for thunderstorms Monday and Monday night.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W GOSHEN              41.58N 85.87W
08/07/2022  M2.40 INCH       ELKHART            IN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT FROM TWITTER.

&&

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
334 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

INZ015>017-024-072000-
Wabash IN-Whitley IN-Kosciusko IN-Fulton IN-
334 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Wabash,
western Whitley, northeastern Fulton and southern Kosciusko Counties
through 400 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mentone to near Akron. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Warsaw and Winona Lake around 350 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include North Manchester
and Pierceton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 8609 4117 8608 4117 8605 4123 8606
      4131 8565 4100 8565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 263DEG 28KT 4120 8599 4109 8598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
418 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

INZ008-017-018-072045-
Whitley IN-Noble IN-Allen IN-
418 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Allen,
southeastern Noble and northeastern Whitley Counties through 445 PM
EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Columbia City, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph along with heavy downpours. Road
         ponding and localized nuisance flooding possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Churubusco around 435 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Huntertown.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 304 and
308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 8558 4129 8552 4132 8519 4127 8519
      4126 8516 4105 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 269DEG 20KT 4119 8548

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Andersen