Beach Hazards Statement 14, NWS Northern Indiana

650 
WHUS43 KIWX 140241
CFWIWX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1041 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

MIZ177-140345-
/O.EXP.KIWX.BH.S.0014.000000T0000Z-220914T0300Z/
Northern Berrien-
1041 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Beach Hazards Statement will be allowed to expire at 11 pm EDT
this evening as conditions have subsided below criteria. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
206 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Cool tonight with patchy fog toward sunrise. It will be notably
warmer for the remainder of the week and dry. Warm and dry
conditions may linger into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Variable cloudiness is expected for the remainder of the day as the
long-discussed upper-level low continues its lethargic stroll
eastward. West of US 31, a brief period of sunshine is still
possible before sunset. As of 1PM EDT, the back edge of the clouds
are along the IL-IN state line. Radar returns have been quite today
(not just because of the radar's pedestal SLEP) with only
isolated showers in Michiana. This activity will diminish this
evening as the low departs. Clear skies tonight will allow
temperatures to dip to near 50 away from the lake. Fog is possible
again, mainly in the western half of the forecast area where low
level moisture was unable to mix out today due to cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

A 588dm ridge builds through the remainder of the week. The
ridge axis is centered over the central US on Wednesday, becoming
centered over Ohio River Valley on Friday. This pattern means dry
weather and warm temperatures. All the medium-range and long-range
forecast ensembles are "lighting up" with the anomalous 500-mb
heights and associated anomalous temperatures. Normal high/low
temperatures around here for mid-September are 76/53. Forecast
high temperatures Friday through Tuesday are well into the 80s
for highs with morning lows in the mid-60s. A high of 90 is within
the realm of possibility. Dew points in the upper-60s are
possible on Monday.

Since yesterday's operational model runs, the latest guidance favors
this ridge amplifying as a deep trough moves onshore of the
Pacific Northwest this weekend. The GFS and ECMWF operational runs
still offer varying magnitudes of the ridge at times into next
week. However, their ensembles have similar magnitudes. Through
that lens, the ridge and its associated warmth, and dry conditions
may stick around into the middle of the week at least.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Stubborn IFR conditions at KSBN should improve during the first
few hours of the period as upper low continues to drift slowly
east, taking the deeper moisture with it. Vis sat showing a few
bands of very light showers still dropping south across eastern LK
that could graze KSBN, but not worth adding at this point. Stratus
did manage to move into KFWA but this should also mix out, likely
quicker than KSBN with lack of lake contribution.

VFR conditions should then dominate most if not all of the
remainder of the period. Only potential fly in the ointment could
be some boundary layer moisture still lingering that with the
clearing skies and light winds could allow a bit of fog
redevelopment late tonight. Will defer to later forecasts to see
if this will be an issue or not.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
418 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

LMZ043-046-080-140900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-
line of lake.-
418 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Michigan and the
nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-140900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
418 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 /318 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.