Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
340 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

Current satellite and surface observations show that the clearing in
Illinois has worked its way into our CWA. In areas that have
cleared, temperatures have rebounded nicely...into the 70s in some
places. With surface dewpoints in the 60s, decent instability has
developed across locations that have cleared...over 1000 J/kg CAPE.
Thunderstorms are developing within this area and will spread
northeastward along a cold front this afternoon. Long hodographs
will allow for storm organization, and a mean shear vector
relatively orthogonal to the intiating boundary will favor discrete
cell mode with possible supercells this afternoon. Obs also show
surface winds with an easterly component ahead of the front, so
hodographs are not entirely straight...and a non-zero tornado threat
appears to be possible. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, enough
dry air in the should be present to sustain intense downdrafts and
cold pools...so damaging wind gusts are a threat today as well.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

Rest of Today and Tonight.

A deep closed upper level pressure system continues to slowly move
to the east across Missouri which is creating active weather
conditions across central Indiana.  Low level wind fields are
generally southerly with robust moisture advection across the area.
Rain coverage has gradually lessened as the initial wave of rain
exits the area. The earlier breaks in the clouds across southern
Indiana have now made it into the south central portions of the
state which is creating a slightly unstable atmosphere. Current
model guidance suggests that by 6 PM a narrow axis of 1000 J/kg of
CAPE will be in place.

Instability parameters across Illinois are expected to be much
higher which makes sense with the mostly clear skies currently in
place.  Bulk shear values in excess of 40kts and effective SRH
values near 100 m2/s2 are more than enough for strong to severe
storms especially considering storms yesterday produced damaging
winds with a less favorable wind field.

Current thoughts are that there will be two periods of storms this
afternoon and evening with the first starting after 4 PM and a
second wave near 8 PM.  This assumes that the clearing that's
expected actually occurs.  Damaging winds are the primary threat
with the limited instability, but can't rule out large hail.  Will
be closely monitoring satellite trends through the early afternoon
to fine-tune where the greatest threat will be going forward.

Generally dry conditions expected for the overnight hours with a few
scattered showers expected here or there.  The loss of daytime
heating will limit the instability and allow for no lightning. Can't
rule out a few areas of patchy fog with the abundant low level
moisture, but with the thick cloud cover and relatively strong winds
of 5-10 mph, coverage will be limited.

Friday.

Rain chances return during the daytime hours as the aforementioned
upper level low pressure system moves across central Indiana into
Ohio.  As the surface and upper level flow becomes northwesterly
rain coverage will increase as the CAA aloft creates more favorable
low and mid level lapse rates.  Can't rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder but the cloudy skies and cool surface conditions will limit
the instability and create unfavorable conditions for glaciation
outside of the cooler temperatures aloft and associated higher lapse
rates.  Rain chances will come to an end by the overnight hours with
cooler than normal conditions expected as the clouds begin to clear.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

Saturday...

At last dry weather has arrived to central Indiana with a brief spell
of cool weather as a closed low exits the region. Surface high
pressure will build upstream of a developing ridge; the source of
subsidence and drier air. NW mid level flow will keep low level
temperatures cool. This in combination with near dry adiabatic
warming in the PBL will lead to highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight temperatures will drop, but some dry WAA will combat the
diurnal cooling. For this reason Saturday night lows will be a few
degrees warmer than Friday night; lows in the mid 50s.

Sunday through Thursday...

Saturday will be the only day below seasonal temperature averages as
a ridge quickly builds over the Midwest above a region of dry WAA
and an elevated EML. As this EML is pushed over IL/IN, it will be
suppressed beneath broad subsidence, eventually nearing a mixed
surface layer by Sunday afternoon. This could lead to a quick
expansion of the PBL, leading to a slew of surface changes; drying
and warming the near surface layer and increasing chances for gusty
winds. Current expectations are for highs in the mid 80s, but upper
80s cannot be ruled out, and will greatly depend on the depth of the
PBL and its associated ability to adiabatically warm.

The next few days in the long term will be rather mundane with
surface high pressure continuing to build beneath an upper level
ridge. Some moisture return is likely as the ridge axis nears,
limiting the fire weather risk in the peak of the heating trend.
This wont stop the warmth however with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s both Monday and Tuesday.

The forecast is much more murky Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble
members are having a difficult time coming to agreement on the
timing of an approaching trough, of which should bring chances of
rain sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon.
Will blanket a low chance PoP for not with uncertainty on timing
high, but chances should increase as the event nears and timing
narrows.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

IMPACTS:

-Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys during showers this afternoon and again
tomorrow.
-TSRA at times from 20Z to 03Z.

DISCUSSION: Widespread showers continue to move across central
Indiana with a drop in coverage during the mid afternoon hours. TSRA
chances increase after 20Z with best chances between 22Z and 02Z.
Southerly winds will occasionally gust to 20kts this afternoon
before dropping off after sunset.  MVFR cigs/vsbys possible at times
through the afternoon and with a return tomorrow morning. Can't rule
out brief IFR cigs near daybreak.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Mesoscale...Eckhoff
Short Term...White
Long Term...Updike
Aviation...White

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
339 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271945-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
339 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Some storms
may be strong to severe this afternoon with damaging winds and hail
as the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Locally heavy rain is also possible in thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday evening for all or
some of the region, although severe weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested Thursday afternoon.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1139 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E FRANKFORT           40.28N 86.50W
05/25/2022                   CLINTON            IN   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. LARGE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF.

&&

JMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
440 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ043-044-262115-
Parke IN-Vermillion IN-
440 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Parke and
southern Vermillion Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton, or 16 miles northeast of Paris, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Newport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 8743 3984 8719 3961 8739 3961 8741
      3975 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 204DEG 18KT 3975 8744

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
446 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ051-060-262115-
Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-
446 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Vigo
and northwestern Sullivan Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 446 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of West Union, or 13 miles southeast of Marshall, moving
north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Vigo
and northwestern Sullivan Counties, including the following
locations... Fairbanks, Prairieton, Prairie Creek and West Terre
Haute.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 1 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8757 3934 8756 3935 8753 3946 8753
      3946 8741 3917 8744 3919 8760 3921 8758
      3924 8758 3925 8757 3926 8758 3925 8759
      3926 8760 3929 8761 3930 8760 3931 8761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 172DEG 33KT 3925 8751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
513 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

INZ035-044-262145-
Fountain IN-Parke IN-
513 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Fountain and northwestern Parke Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newport, or 23 miles southeast of Danville, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Fountain and northwestern Parke Counties, including the following
locations... Kingman, Turkey Run State Park and Yeddo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 8737 3990 8737 4006 8734 3995 8709
      3982 8730 3985 8735 3986 8735 3987 8737
      3988 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 202DEG 17KT 3990 8731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CM