Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1132 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 836 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

H20 Vapor imagery was showing the MCV moving northeast and around
Effingham, Illinois at 8 PM EDT. Convection was already moving back
into east central Illinois and with the convection moving into
better low level shear, there is some concern this could become
supercellular and so much so that a new severe thunderstorm watch
has been issues that will run through 2 AM. Large hail will be the
main concern over most of central Indiana with the warm front to the
southwest across western Kentucky resulting in mostly elevated hail
producers this evening. However, southwestern counties will have a
better chance of getting into the warm sector as the front lifts
slowly northeast.

Also, areas near and south of Interstate 70 have now been placed in
a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Day, and some areas have
already received over 2 inches. So, there is concern for flooding
there.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

Highlights...

* Severe weather possible this afternoon into tonight

* Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible

* Windy and hot on Friday

Severe weather is possible this afternoon into tonight as an MCV
approaches the area. Radar shows that convection has fired up over
Southwest Indiana and is moving NE. These storms will move into far
SW counties over the next hour. A warm front is currently draped
across Central Indiana with the southern half of the CWA in the warm
sector. Moisture advection within the warm sector has increased
dewpoints into the mid and upper 60s. High dewpoints along with
daytime heating have resulted in moderate to strong instability
across southern counties. An upper wave over Illinois along with the
approaching MCV will provide the main forcing for storms with the
warm front providing subtle forcing and enhanced directional shear.
Moderate to high instability, adequate low level wind shear, and
overall forcing may produce strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. The primary threats are damaging winds and
large hail, but isolated tornadoes are possible. Storms are expected
to weaken overnight as instability decreases with the loss of
daytime heating. Southerly flow and low level moisture will limit
overnight cooling with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Friday and Friday night...

A strong LLJ will help advect warm moist air into the area. Partly
cloudy skies through the day will allow for sunshine and daytime
mixing. With this expected mixing, surface wind gusts could reach 40
mph at times. Model guidance is in good agreement that strong wind
gusts are possible tomorrow, especially over northwestern counties.
A cold front will slowly begin to approach Central Indiana late
Friday night with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across
mainly NW counties. Confidence is low in any precipitation for
Friday night as guidance continues to trend slower with the
approaching cold front.

Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s. Indy's record high
for Friday is 90 degrees, last reached in 1977. Southerly flow and
low level moisture will keep overnight temperatures above average
with lows near 70 degrees.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

* Active weather expected this period.
* Rain chances Saturday afternoon and night
* More Rain chances on Tuesday afternoon through Thursday

Saturday and Saturday Night...

Models show SW flow in place aloft across Indiana ahead of a
broader...deeper trough in place over the northern plains. A surface
frontal boundary will be in place across NW Indiana allowing Central
Indiana to reside within the warm sector for the day. Forecast
soundings show favorable conditions for convection with attainable
convective temperatures and sufficient CAPE. Saturday should not be
a washout...but thunderstorm chances will be increasing as the day
progresses. By Saturday Night...models show the cold front sagging
southward across Central Indiana. Thus will trend toward high pops
on Saturday afternoon and evening as daytime heating initially
starts the storm chances...followed by additional development due to
the arrival and passage of the expected cold front.

Sunday Through Tuesday Morning...

Models show the cold front departing on Sunday morning as subsidence
and drying take place in the wake of the system. Aloft...weak mid
level ridging and strong surface high pressure are noted to be
pushing from the plains...across Indiana to the eastern Great Lakes
and Quebec by Tuesday Morning. Forecast soundings continue to
suggest a dry column through the period with mainly northerly or
northeasterly surface flow. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast
here with below normal high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...

Rain chances will return during this period. Models suggest a deep
upper trough pushing out of the Rockies...providing SW flow aloft
over Central Indiana on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday and
Thursday...this upper trough is expected to push to the southern
plains while continuing to eject weak upper forcing across the Ohio
Valley within the SW flow aloft. Meanwhile a surface frontal
boundary is depicted across Central Indiana and a weak surface low
is suggested to push across the front on Wednesday into Thursday.
Finally during this time...forecast soundings show a saturated
column...mainly on Wednesday and Thursday as the best forcing
passes. Pwats at that time are suggested to be near 1.80. Thus will
have highest pops on those days.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

IMPACTS:

- Thunderstorms will result in MVFR and possibly worse flying
  conditions at times through 08z. Then, conditions will
  improve to VFR.

- Winds 180-210 degrees with gusts to 30 knots away from
  thunderstorms after 14z and in thunderstorms prior, through 08z.

- Non-convective LLWS 09z-16z and more after 04Z Saturday.

DISCUSSION:

MCV will move across the terminals overnight and bring in strong
to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail possible.
Non-convective low level wind shear and gusty winds away from
thunderstorms possible after that.

&&

.Hydrology...
With heavy rain falling earlier over parts of south central Indiana,
earlier this evening, to the tune of radar estimated 2 inches, the
MCV moving towards central Indiana, precipitable water near 2
inches, instability axis with surface based CAPE to 3500 J/KG or
higher and a boundary over southwestern Indiana, went ahead with a
Flash Flood Watch through 8 AM for areas near and south of
Interstate 70. This is also within the WPC Day1 Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall. Heaviest rain will be late this evening and
overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Friday for INZ051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

Update...MK
Short Term...Melo
Long Term...Puma
Aviation...MK
Hydrology...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

INZ021-028>031-035>042-046>049-210215-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-
Henry-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, and New Castle
1001 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. Lightning remains a
potential hazard with any thunderstorm.

Heavy rain is possible at times. Any prolonged heavy rain could lead
to a flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected at times from Friday night through
Saturday night. A few storms could be strong to severe. Damaging
winds and large hail would be the main threats.

Winds gusts up to 40 mph are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters should keep an
eye on the forecast for later developments.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ043>045-051>055-060>065-067>072-210215-
Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Sullivan-
Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville,
Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Sullivan,
Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville,
Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg,
Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell,
Seymour, and North Vernon
1001 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2AM...
...Flood Watch until 8AM...

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. Some storms may be
strong to severe. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats with isolated tornadoes possible.

Heavy rain fell this afternoon and more heavy rain is possible
overnight. Flooding is likely within prolonged periods of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected at times from Friday night through
Saturday night. A few storms could be strong to severe. Damaging
winds and large hail would be the main threats.

Winds gusts up to 40 mph are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters should keep an
eye on the forecast for later developments.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ056-057-210215-
Shelby-Rush-
Including the cities of Shelbyville and Rushville
1001 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

...Flood Watch until 8AM...

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. Lightning remains a
potential hazard with any thunderstorm.

Heavy rain fell this afternoon and more heavy rain is possible
overnight. Flooding is likely within prolonged periods of heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected at times from Friday night through
Saturday night. A few storms could be strong to severe. Damaging
winds and large hail would be the main threats.

Winds gusts up to 40 mph are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters should keep an
eye on the forecast for later developments.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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